Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Hasn't gotten much attention with the severe threat but there may be a window around/just after frontal passage where there's an uptick in winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Oh. In northern MS at 22Z. One of the best forecast soundings you'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Hasn't gotten much attention with the severe threat but there may be a window around/just after frontal passage where there's an uptick in winds. boss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'm just amazed by the potential HRRR is showing in Mississippi. 17z... cells are popping in south-central AR.... all clear over Mississippi and soon to be Alabama. There's already very high STP values all over Mississippi... one spot is up to 5.9... and they probably still have another 2 hours before they get hit. It's not good... not good in the least. HRRR has a more classic WAA signature to the showers... not this crazy squall feature like 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 boss WGE_PN_030_0000.gif It wouldn't be December without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z GFS appears to be increasing the post frontal wind threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 System will be flirting with record low December pressure readings on much of its trek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 The 0Z GFS has slightly less instability than the 18Z, but has similar supercell composites. Seem's like it's still the low outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 LAF tomorrow evening at 3z...off the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 LAF tomorrow evening at 3z...off the NAM LAF.png Nice, at this point if the ECWMF keeps with the trend of higher instability, I think the GFS can be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 HRRR seems to be a lot more forgiving tomorrow. Convection isn't as intense as the NAM. CAPE rebounding behind the smaller band of rain. Good sign, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 According to the WPC, they have discounted the 0Z GFS: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE S. PLAINS...PREFERENCE: NAM OR ECMWFCONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUITE CLOSE TO THE EACH WHILE THE GFS HASTRENDED TOWARD THEM BUT REMAINS TOO DEEP...ALTHOUGH ITS MOISTUREFIELDS ARE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE NAM/ECMWF. THE SPREAD HAS ALSONARROWED WITH THE STRONGEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE FOR THENAM/ECMWF AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 0z NAM...0-3KM CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 RGEM too...essentially same location/strength. Definitely a concerning run for the QCA. Hail would likely be the biggest threat, but definitely wouldn't rule out tornadoes given everything in place. EDIT: I'm gonna bust my ass tomorrow and try to get out of work by 3:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Definitely a concerning run for the QCA. Hail would likely be the biggest threat, but definitely wouldn't rule out tornadoes given everything in place. Mentioned the hail threat earlier...with decent CAPE and low freezing levels, I think there could be a decent threat for this time of year, especially with any supercells. Maybe not the baseballs-softballs that fell on 11/17/2013 but something relatively large would not surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 0z NAM...0-3KM CAPE Impressive CAPE in the lowest 3KM + Impressive Low-Level Shear + Low LCL's = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Definitely a concerning run for the QCA. Hail would likely be the biggest threat, but definitely wouldn't rule out tornadoes given everything in place. EDIT: I'm gonna bust my ass tomorrow and try to get out of work by 3:30. Caught your edit. Lack of daylight sucks this time of year...sun sets at 4:24 PM in Chicago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Caught your edit. Lack of daylight sucks this time of year...sun sets at 4:24 PM in Chicago lol Ha, yeah it's pretty early. I've never been much for night chasing. Only really had success doing it one time. For those who can pull it off I definitely tip my cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Mentioned the hail threat earlier...with decent CAPE and low freezing levels, I think there could be a decent threat for this time of year, especially with any supercells. Maybe not the baseballs-softballs that fell on 11/17/2013 but something relatively large would not surprise me.Good points there. Very steep midlevel lapse rates punching in with the dry slot. Maybe even some accumulating hail. Also re. the midlevel lapse rates and cold midlevel temps progged by the NAM (-18 to -20 C) over northern IL during the evening - observed 500 mb temps at DVN and ILX on 1/7/08 were -19C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z NSSL-WRF doesn't look too good for round 2. Fires some stuff near the Quad Cities, which moves northeast, and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 HRRR is pretty robust at 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 New NSSL WRF rolling in. Shows new convection kicking off over southeast IA, and then turns into a nice arc of low-topped sups that cross the Mississippi around 23z. This run shows a narrow ribbon of 750j/kg most unstable cape ahead of the arc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 HRRR is pretty robust at 19z Man that's crazy...looks like some pockets of ~1800 in northeastern Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Man that's crazy...looks like some pockets of ~1800 in northeastern Missouri. That's concerning, remember this is the model that nailed November 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I was definitely not expecting to be in an enhanced risk. They went with 10% hatched down south. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY....OH VALLEY... AND MID-SOUTH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF THE MS VALLEY EWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST NWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ..SUMMARY THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS HE MID-SOUTH INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WHERE TORNADOES...SOME SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL SHIFT FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MODIFIED GULF AIR SPREADING NWD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AN ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND SSWWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST...WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS. ..ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WITHIN A WAA REGIME SUPPORTED BY A 50-60 KT LLJ...AND WILL SHIFT NNEWD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THE EARLY CONVECTION WHERE STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND ALLOW FOR A CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM NRN LA INTO SERN MO. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SVR HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS FORECAST OVER THE REGION...SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/. THIS THREAT SHOULD PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SHIFTING INTO WRN TN AND THE MID-MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. EVOLUTION INTO A QLCS IS EXPECTED BY EVENING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG WIND THREAT LIKELY INCREASING...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS MO/IL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY HERE IS THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH A COOL/MODIFIED AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY EXIST NEAR/E OF THE SFC LOW GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE GULF COAST SHOULD SHIFT NE OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE CNTRL CONUS UPPER WAVE WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE N...BUT BROAD WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO PARTS OF MS/AL. WITH A 50-60 KT LLJ REMAINING POSITIONED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A TORNADO THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE...AND MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM SRN MS INTO NRN GA. ..CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE LLJ POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. DESPITE MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS...POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY EXIST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Usually I'm diplomatic in my criticism but that hail probability map is ridiculous. Pretty hard to figure out how they don't have higher probs farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 That was a mediocre outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 for reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 for reference day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif Yeah was expecting that to be further north as well. Gonna be interesting to see how that verifies going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Jaret Rogers and Joey Picca doing an outlook on a big day FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.