jaxjagman Posted September 12, 2016 Author Share Posted September 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 15, 2016 Author Share Posted September 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 16, 2016 Author Share Posted September 16, 2016 On 9/8/2016 at 2:35 PM, nrgjeff said: NOAA punted the La Nina watch but cool water still lingers beneath. I still favor the slight Nina side of neutral, even if no true weak Nina. Looking to the North Pacific for my main signal. While the PDO is not as positive, the number is driven by more uniform temps in the North Pac. One chart is worth a thousand numbers, and the chart depicts a warm North Pac. Should be a cool signal for the region if we can get rid of the stubborn SER. Long as we have a SER, and Plains troughs, some Midwest severe would be nice. 1-2 days to the Midwest is easier than a 5-day Plains project, lol! Slight tick upwards last update.Early Sept. plumes never updated,but mid month did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 17, 2016 Author Share Posted September 17, 2016 IMME keeps a weak Nina into the 1st of the new year,towards Feb it goes into a more neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 24, 2016 Author Share Posted September 24, 2016 Most of every region has rose the last couple days other than 1+2 is dropping.Should see 4 falling back in a couple days,possibly signs of 3.4 towards the end of the month.Next ENSO update Monday 3.4 should rise.not a whole lot been going on the last couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 Region 4 is starting to fall as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 SOI has dropped 20 points the last two days,sitting at about +7 today,wouldn't be surprised to see it make it into more Nina negative tomorrow.Region 4 and 3.4 continue to fall,the next ENSO update tomorrow should reflect this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 Most of the NMME'S are showing a weak Nina again,though they look about everywhere of where the colder anoms would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 15, 2016 Author Share Posted October 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 On 10/15/2016 at 8:30 AM, jaxjagman said: Jax, new watch or a continued old one? Saw this posted in the MA forum... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 17, 2016 Author Share Posted October 17, 2016 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Jax, new watch or a continued old one? Saw this posted in the MA forum... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf New watch,the IMME should come out tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 17, 2016 Author Share Posted October 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 17, 2016 Author Share Posted October 17, 2016 IMME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 15 hours ago, jaxjagman said: New watch,the IMME should come out tomorrow I thought so. You may yet get your Nina! Now...that is very, very interesting news in regards to this winter. Would look to be a weak La Niña. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 18, 2016 Author Share Posted October 18, 2016 On 10/17/2016 at 0:22 PM, Carvers Gap said: I thought so. You may yet get your Nina! Now...that is very, very interesting news in regards to this winter. Would look to be a weak La Niña. Agree? Not sure.3.4 has been rising again and by the looks could possibly rise some more the next few days.The SOI after 8 consecutive days in the negative is now back positive,more Ninaish state https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 21, 2016 Author Share Posted October 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 JB stated on WxBell that the Euro seasonal forecast has no Nina and potentially headed towards another Nino. I saw the graphics. Just a few pockets (relative to the Pacific Ocean size) of -0.5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 21, 2016 Author Share Posted October 21, 2016 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: JB stated on WxBell that the Euro seasonal forecast has no Nina and potentially headed towards another Nino. I saw the graphics. Just a few pockets (relative to the Pacific Ocean size) of -0.5C. Yeah,the Euro has seemed to have been backing off since spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 JB should check a pressure chart or OLR once in a while. ATMO is in Nina mode. Note I'm not calling it La Nina, just describing the state of the ATMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 12 hours ago, nrgjeff said: JB should check a pressure chart or OLR once in a while. ATMO is in Nina mode. Note I'm not calling it La Nina, just describing the state of the ATMO. Just relaying the info. Thought it was interesting. He thought it was unusual within the context of other models and current observations. Most other seasonal models have it. They have rolled with Nina climo for their own forecasts I think. Seemed to give him a moment of pause to see such a strong model potentially leave out/weaken that aspect, JB has some good ideas at times. Though, with any pay site I realize some of the info is just used to drive users to the site. I am all for a weak Nina or Nino. La Nada or a strong ENSO phase either way...and seems like no dice here. To me, seems like E TN has been in a Nina pattern since May. This hot, dry weather seems to be evidence of that cooling. Most of us thought a hot, dry summer would occur...and it is still here. Whether we get to a Nina officially, it has seemed very much that. Though some Ninas(maybe the stronger ones?) can be rainy I think. Will be interesting to see if indeed a cold start to winter will result. To me that would be the final nail in at least providing downstream results of a Nina. I wonder if because the Nino was so strong that even cooling back to normal is creating a Nina-ish state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 22, 2016 Author Share Posted October 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: You have the seasonal one? That is the one JB is referencing. But hey, nice to see some green over TN! We need it. Thanks for the pic, Jax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 23, 2016 Author Share Posted October 23, 2016 Don't have the seasonal,Carver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 29, 2016 Author Share Posted October 29, 2016 Pressure has really dipped in Tahiti the last couple days,the SOI has been in the negative 30's the last couple days.Possibly a good burst into 3.4 towards the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 31, 2016 Author Share Posted October 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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