LaNina

[jaxjagman]

 

 

 

[rbowman]

Starting to look more and more like a la nada. Weak nina at best. That's better for snow lovers in these parts.

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[nrgjeff]

I believe it will achieve weak La Nina. Lots of cold water lurks underneath. Current variability is just the trade winds. Winter will also depend on the PDO, which is becoming less positive. Should the PDO flip negative, winter may be mild with any strength La Nina. However I think the PDO will hold slightly positive, which combined with Nina would be a slight cold signal for winter.

[jaxjagman]

Weakness

 

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[Carvers Gap]

Beginning to lean towards weak La Niña or possible La Nada.  That would be a nice development if it occurs.

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[nrgjeff]

Nino 1+2 region is a little stubborn, keeping warm, and possibly keeping some wind shear in parts of the Caribbean Sea. Key region 3.4 has held slightly cooler than normal. I still favor the Nina side of neutral or even weak La Nina.

Also the North Pacific may be of interest. Waters are turning warmer than normal across the entire north Pac from Japan through the Gulf of Alaska. If it holds into winter it is a cold signal - all else equal. This year lots of residual heat in the atmosphere would need to fade.

[jaxjagman]

1.2 rose last week as Jeff said,it's been heading down though the last few days anyways

[jaxjagman]

[nrgjeff]

In addition to the La Nina question, and the North Pacific, sunspots are worth tracking. While I mainly look to winter 2017-18, rolling monthly average of sunspots is dropping fast going into this winter 2016-17. Carvers from the pinned summer thread:

21 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

... My early thoughts on winter are slightly drier than normal.  Slightly warmer than normal w/ extremes in both directions for cold.  Maybe some very cold air intruding.  Will take some time to get rid of the latent Nino heat in the Northern Hemisphere.  So, I could see the winter of 2017-18 being a very good one.  But this winter I am banking on a weak La Nina(which normally would be cold) balanced by latent Nino heat in the northern hemisphere.  Let us not forget that solar activity IMO has been a big trump card during the past few winters.  As we head towards a solar min after a very weak max...have to think solar activity(or lack of it) could be a big player.

My own thoughts from this thread (slight cool lean):

On 8/8/2016 at 10:34 AM, nrgjeff said:

... Key region 3.4 has held slightly cooler than normal. I still favor the Nina side of neutral or even weak La Nina.

Also the North Pacific may be of interest. Waters are turning warmer than normal across the entire north Pac from Japan through the Gulf of Alaska. If it holds into winter it is a cold signal - all else equal. This year lots of residual heat in the atmosphere would need to fade.

Two other questions on the mild side are that residual atmospheric heat and the PDO. If the warming off Japan becomes complimented by cooling off the North American West Coast, the PDO flip would be a mild signal. More likely, per the numerous charts above, the whole North Pac should stay warm which is the cool signal noted for the US Southeast.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

In addition to the La Nina question, and the North Pacific, sunspots are worth tracking. While I mainly look to winter 2017-18, rolling monthly average of sunspots is dropping fast going into this winter 2016-17. Carvers from the pinned summer thread:

My own thoughts from this thread (slight cool lean):

Two other questions on the mild side are that residual atmospheric heat and the PDO. If the warming off Japan becomes complimented by cooling off the North American West Coast, the PDO flip would be a mild signal. More likely, per the numerous charts above, the whole North Pac should stay warm which is the cool signal noted for the US Southeast.

Yeah, originally I thought this winter would be a mega torch w/ a strong Nina.  So, I will take a weak Nina(even w/ the Pacific possibly being a problem) over the strong Nina.  Also, I have learned that strong Ninos have a huge impact for the next winter.  Seems like the atmosphere remains almost "hung over" w/ all of the extra heat.  I don't think I had read your thoughts before I posted mine yesterday, or would have given you some credit on the residual heat idea.  I actually prefer a weak La Nina for winter, but not following a strong Nino. 

[jaxjagman]

IRI ENSO Forecast

CPC/IRI ENSO Update

Published: August 11, 2016

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

ENSO Alert System Status:  La Niña Watch

Synopsis: La Niña is slightly favored to develop during August – October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.

ENSO-neutral conditions were observed during the past month, featuring slightly below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) close to the equator across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). While the weekly Niño-1+2 and Niño-4 regions were near average, the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 indices were slightly below average (approaching -0.5oC) during July.  (Fig. 2). Although below-average subsurface temperatures continued, they weakened during the past month (Fig. 3) but remained near the surface in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). traditional Southern Oscillation index and the equatorial Southern Oscillation index were near average during July, while the upper and lower-level winds also were near average across most of the tropical Pacific. Convection was suppressed over portions of the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over part of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Overall, the combined ocean and atmosphere system is reflective of ENSO-neutral.

Many models favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) by the beginning of the Northern Hemisphere fall, continuing into winter (Fig. 6). Statistical models predict a slightly later onset time (i.e., mid- to late fall) than dynamical models, and also predict a slightly weaker event. The forecaster consensus favors La Niña onset during the August-October season, and predicts a weak event (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and -1.0°C) if La Niña forms. Overall, La Niña is slightly favored to develop during August – October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17 (clickCPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.

[jaxjagman]

https://www.wxrisk.com/1st-speculation-of-winter-2016-2017/

 

DT's speculation.

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

Most of the regions have been rising that last couple of days.Nothing much going on right now 

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

That was a decent flip-flop from the last recent predictions  from CPC/IRI.From an LaNina to basically a NoNina

 

 

[nrgjeff]

NOAA punted the La Nina watch but cool water still lingers beneath. I still favor the slight Nina side of neutral, even if no true weak Nina. Looking to the North Pacific for my main signal. While the PDO is not as positive, the number is driven by more uniform temps in the North Pac. One chart is worth a thousand numbers, and the chart depicts a warm North Pac. Should be a cool signal for the region if we can get rid of the stubborn SER.

Long as we have a SER, and Plains troughs, some Midwest severe would be nice. 1-2 days to the Midwest is easier than a 5-day Plains project, lol!

[Carvers Gap]

It appears the Nina is trying to(or already has) kicked the bucket.  I am always reminded that ENSO forecasts are very fickle at long range. I have been burned by them often.