LaNina

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Latest CanSIPS

 

 

Next April ,we'd be looking at a fairly high TNI for the severe season

 

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This week

 

 

Last week

 

 

 

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Updated CanSIPS FOR Dec

 

 

 

 

 

 

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PowerPoint Presentation.png

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[jaxjagman]

 

CPC/IRI ENSO Update

Published: June 9, 2016

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory/ La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.

El Niño dissipated and ENSO-neutral conditions returned during over the past month, as indicated by the expansion of near-to-below average surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Other than the westernmost Niño-4 region, the Niño indices were near zero by the end of May (Fig. 2). Below-average subsurface temperatures continued (Fig. 3) and extended to the surface across the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). For the first time in 2016, atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean were also consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near zero, while the upper and lower-level winds were both near average across most of the tropical Pacific. Convection was also near-average over the central tropical Pacific and over most of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditons.

Many models favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) by the Northern Hemisphere fall (Fig. 6). However, most dynamical models indicate La Niña onset as soon as the Northern Hemisphere summer, which is slightly favored by the forecaster consensus. In contrast, many statistical models favor a later onset time, with about half indicating the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions through the winter. At this time, the forecasters are leaning toward a weak or borderline moderate La Niña if an event were to form. Overall, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_update

[jaxjagman]

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/el-nio-is-officially-overand-la-nia-is-likely-on-the-way

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[Carvers Gap]

Weak Nina would be tolerable this winter IMO...

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1.png

 

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The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have been at neutral levels for the past four weeks, with the central Pacific Ocean having recently cooled to levels close to the long-term average. Temperatures below the tropical Pacific Ocean surface are much cooler than average. In the atmosphere, indicators such as the trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are at neutral levels. The latest monthly SOI (+2.8 for May 2016) is the highest value since May 2014.
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH. This suggests around a 50% likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016. International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Niña is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios. At least one model suggests La Niña conditions may be short lived, returning to neutral by October.
Typically during La Niña, winter-spring rainfall is above average over northern, central and eastern Australia.
Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to cover much of the Indian Ocean. Recent values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index have dipped below the negative IOD threshold of -0.4. However it will take several more weeks of similar temperatures before a negative IOD event is considered established. Model outlooks suggest a negative IOD event may form during the austral winter. A negative IOD typically brings increased winter-spring rainfall to southern Australia.

 

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[nrgjeff]

Models seem to be hung up on the latest SST uptick. Plenty of colder than normal water lurks beneath the surface.

[jaxjagman]

Models seem to be hung up on the latest SST uptick. Plenty of colder than normal water lurks beneath the surface.

Starting to see some upwelling ?Most of the regions have been falling the last couple days.

 

[jaxjagman]