jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2016 Author Share Posted March 4, 2016 Not so much weak with Scripps Data in Tabular Format for Nino 3.4 region (anomalies in degrees-C) MAM 2016 1.32AMJ 2016 0.67MJJ 2016 0.02JJA 2016 -0.59JAS 2016 -1.15ASO 2016 -1.62SON 2016 -2.04OND 2016 -2.36NDJ 2016/2017 -2.64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 El Nino Forecast Pictures at SIO Climate Research.png Not so much weak with Scripps Data in Tabular Format for Nino 3.4 region (anomalies in degrees-C) MAM 2016 1.32 AMJ 2016 0.67 MJJ 2016 0.02 JJA 2016 -0.59 JAS 2016 -1.15 ASO 2016 -1.62 SON 2016 -2.04 OND 2016 -2.36 NDJ 2016/2017 -2.64 Who knows what will happen. The current El Nino has been less than textbook and that would be record territory for a LA Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2016 Author Share Posted March 5, 2016 Who knows what will happen. The current El Nino has been less than textbook and that would be record territory for a LA Nina. Yup,Western parts of the Valley could see much of anything during Nina http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Yup,Western parts of the Valley could see much of anything during Nina http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=events The interesting thing is that the last major Severe Weather Outbreak that happened across the entire state of Tennessee was in April of 2011, which was a La Nina year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2016 Author Share Posted March 6, 2016 The interesting thing is that the last major Severe Weather Outbreak that happened across the entire state of Tennessee was in April of 2011, which was a La Nina year. Yeah,next winter start following the TNI index into spring.I had a good paper but don't know where i put on the board, if i find it i'll post it here again. http://www.earthmagazine.org/article/trans-nino-years-could-foster-tornado-outbreaks http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/tni.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2016 Author Share Posted March 6, 2016 http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAPP/2013/Presentations/1-15/Lee.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2016 Author Share Posted March 6, 2016 Here's another good paper http://sunburn.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/docs/2013GL059137.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2016 Author Share Posted March 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 CFS says what Nina,let's have Nino stay a lil longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 I'm wondering if the CFS isn't on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Meh,we'll see.The waters are cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 26, 2016 Author Share Posted March 26, 2016 https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/here-comes-la-niaor-does-it-what-history-models-and-experts-tel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 The CFSv2 initialization problem in the tropical Atlantic is noted in the story above. CFS had tropical Atlantic SSTs too cold and it likely impacted the forecast for both oceans. NOAA is correcting it today but it may take until later Tuesday for the full effects of the correction to take hold. Output is a compilation of the several runs, almost like a moving average, so it will take several runs to resolve. We will see if the CFSv2 Nina v Nino forecast changes... UPDATE: Well it did change. Conceptual understanding of subsurface data beyond just models supports Nina. Jax feel free to change thread title to probable La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 1, 2016 Author Share Posted April 1, 2016 CanSIPS back to a strong Nina CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 5, 2016 Author Share Posted April 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 12, 2016 Author Share Posted April 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 12, 2016 Author Share Posted April 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 12, 2016 Author Share Posted April 12, 2016 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?cid=009tw01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 My personal chips are on La Nina. Thankfully nobody at work has asked for a call yet. We are focused on summer which I believe will be hot. Still have a lot of lingering heat in the atmosphere to work through. Plus Nino to Nina can favor hot. I like the subsurface sea temperature chart several posts above. Note lots of colder than normal water lurks beneath. Total ocean heat content is off markedly though surface remains quite warm. A return to normal trade winds should promote the upwelling needed to favor La Nina. Winter, much will depend on both the Nina question and the PDO question. Combination of the two matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 15, 2016 Author Share Posted April 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 16, 2016 Author Share Posted April 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 Downwelling doing the job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 18, 2016 Author Share Posted April 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 20, 2016 Author Share Posted April 20, 2016 That's an impressive drop in 1.2 the last couple weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 22, 2016 Author Share Posted April 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 22, 2016 Author Share Posted April 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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