jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Time for the LaNina thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 I'll throw out some analogs from various Ninas in winter months/ Starting with weak Ninas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 Now moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 Now strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 The latest CanSIPS suggest we will be in a moderate to strong Nina come the end of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Already on to next winter, eh? Perhaps we should get through this winter first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Already on to next winter, eh? Perhaps we should get through this winter first. You're probably right.But i have a feeling like most Ninos it's fixing to get boring in our neck of the woods.Warm and dry and shots of cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I tend to cringe when I hear La Nina, mainly because of the infamous hot, dry summer we had during the "moderate" one in 2007. That was the worst drought I've experienced since moving to Tennessee in 2003. I lost several large pine trees in the yard that year, and even if that hadn't happened, drought is my LEAST favorite weather event. Heck, it's boring. I'm sure there were other drivers to the southeast drought that year besides La Nina, but starting that year, I associated hot, dry summers with La Nina. Give me La Nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I tend to cringe when I hear La Nina, mainly because of the infamous hot, dry summer we had during the "moderate" one in 2007. That was the worst drought I've experienced since moving to Tennessee in 2003. I lost several large pine trees in the yard that year, and even if that hadn't happened, drought is my LEAST favorite weather event. Heck, it's boring. I'm sure there were other drivers to the southeast drought that year besides La Nina, but starting that year, I associated hot, dry summers with La Nina. Give me La Nada. The good news on that scenario....we were in an extended dry period from 2005 to 2007...it was a culmination of 3 years of severe drought....We are not in such a state right now. It may well be a hot summer but at least we should not be that dry yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The good news on that scenario....we were in an extended dry period from 2005 to 2007...it was a culmination of 3 years of severe drought....We are not in such a state right now. It may well be a hot summer but at least we should not be that dry yet. True. It was a dry several years before 2007. 2007 was a particularly bad year for plants and trees. The winter was warm, and March saw a dry blowtorch develop in our region. Temps soared in the 80's by late March. By month's end, trees were almost fully leafed out. Even the Oak trees, which are usually last to get their leaves, were green by early April. Then we had a cold outbreak that killed everything. Lows dropped deep into the 20's several nights in a row. By the time the cold moved out, everything was black--the vegetation cooked by the cold. It was the ugliest spring ever. It took weeks for the trees to recover, and some never did. Follow up that with a very hot, dry summer, and many older trees succumbed to the harshness of the weather. Would not ever like to see similar conditions to 2007. Thankfully, by 2008 the dryness relaxed and the wet year of 2009 ended the exceptional drought for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 True. It was a dry several years before 2007. 2007 was a particularly bad year for plants and trees. The winter was warm, and March saw a dry blowtorch develop in our region. Temps soared in the 80's by late March. By month's end, trees were almost fully leafed out. Even the Oak trees, which are usually last to get their leaves, were green by early April. Then we had a cold outbreak that killed everything. Lows dropped deep into the 20's several nights in a row. By the time the cold moved out, everything was black--the vegetation cooked by the cold. It was the ugliest spring ever. It took weeks for the trees to recover, and some never did. Follow up that with a very hot, dry summer, and many older trees succumbed to the harshness of the weather. Would not ever like to see similar conditions to 2007. Thankfully, by 2008 the dryness relaxed and the wet year of 2009 ended the exceptional drought for good. Actually CFS has been trending a drought for Spring-Summer for all of Dixie Alley, including TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Actually CFS has been trending a drought for Spring-Summer for all of Dixie Alley, including TN. Weather is cyclical, and we haven't had a long term drought here in parts of the Tennessee Valley since 2005-07. So, we may be due for dry times at some point. But at least this winter has been (and will probably continue to be) wet, unlike 2007. That winter was exceptionally dry, and led into a dry spring and summer. So if it does turn dry at some point, at least we started the growing season with adequate soil moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Blowtorch next winter if that is right. La Nina and warm Atlantic whoa SER! We better have some luck this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Blowtorch next winter if that is right. La Nina and warm Atlantic whoa SER! We better have some luck this winter. Not to mention a very hot, dry summer potentially - especially later in the summer as the Nina takes hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Blowtorch next winter if that is right. La Nina and warm Atlantic whoa SER! We better have some luck this winter. You would think that it would be like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Strong/Mod La Ninas are not pretty for winter lovers here. There can occasionally be snow events during them, but it's thread the needle between periods of extra warmth once it gets to around -1.5. If it's weaker than that winter can be epic around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-us-spring-forecast-march-snow-northeast-widespread-severe-weather-april/55085474 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 26, 2016 Author Share Posted February 26, 2016 Closing stage of Super Nino 2015-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 http://esrl.boulder.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 CanSIPS backed down on the strong Nina.Still a NINA though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 CanSIPS backed down on the strong Nina.Still a NINA though Numerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png Hopefully that holds, we do better as far as snow when it is weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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