CAPE Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I've said this for years...when the board is full of SSWE chatter it means we are in trouble. Or we are just in a historically bad(warm) pattern, and folks are looking for anything that resembles some hope that it will get good, and soon. Problem is that wont happen. So its a waiting game. It certainly looks like improvement is on the way over the next week to 10 days, but likely still a ways to go beyond that, assuming it doesn't just revert back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I've said this for years...when the board is full of SSWE chatter it means we are in trouble. And when you don't post all morning about overnight ensembles, I think the same thing. I could be misinterpreting this, but ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I've said this for years...when the board is full of SSWE chatter it means we are in trouble. Not saying we are in trouble yet,but it appears that the very strong + PNA spike will be brief , and possibly followed by a another return of record warmth, this time January style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 And when you don't post all morning about overnight ensembles, I think the same thing. I could be misinterpreting this, but ..... My interpretation is status quo...its just going to be another week before we see begin to see any real changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 And when you don't post all morning about overnight ensembles, I think the same thing. I could be misinterpreting this, but ..... Nah, nothing has changed since yesterday. There's not much to add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's all about windows and taking advantage of them...not really different than any other winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The Tuesday storm has been consistently shifting south for the last several GFS runs. The difference is that instead of a warm, showery rain we'll have a chillier, steadier rain. But in this pathetic pattern it's all we have to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 1-3 Jan looks mildly interesting..just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So... the 12z GEFS individ ensembles... yeah for the 28/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Quite the "ridge bridge" on the 12z gefs 11-15....from AK over the pole. Different look from its previous runs and the euro....probably a blip but nice to see nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So... the 12z GEFS individ ensembles... yeah for the 28/29 Didn't look all that hard at that one, but IMO the ens members at day 9-10 have the most interesting solutions I've seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So... the 12z GEFS individ ensembles... yeah for the 28/29 C000/P002/P010/P009/P013... A few of them look like wet snowstorms... or snow to rain P003 is delayed a bit, but snow inbound on that member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 With the 12z GEFS individ members from Raleigh's... the stronger the H in Canada or the better placement of the H makes us see snow...and there are several members that show that across the LWX CWA... not sure if I buy that yet though... but it does catch my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's all about windows and taking advantage of them...not really different than any other winter around here. I'm a Mac guy myself. No more Ctl+Alt+Delete for me. No sir. On a weather note, in all seriousness, the first week in January is looking more interesting. It's a sneak attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Interesting look to the 216hr Euro - does anyone have the accompanying precip maps? I can only see the MSLP and 850mb temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Interesting look to the 216hr Euro - does anyone have the accompanying precip maps? I can only see the MSLP and 850mb temps... Swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Swing and a miss Figures... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro h5 look is pretty decent at the end of the run. Nice split flow, plenty of cold across the conus, 50/50 low about to be in place, and energy digging into the SW. I can definitely extrapolate a snowstorm d12-13. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 In my area, around Delaware, just below the canal, I have never had an above normal snowfall season without an above normal snowfall in the preceding December. That happened in 02 and 09, very different now. Depends on your definition of above normal. Both Wilmington and Dover have had totals above the seasonal norm with minimal Dec snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro has actually trended quite a bit towards the GFS in the medium/long range. It's even sticking a sneaky SWFE event in the SNE that the GFS had days ago. Interestingly enough, the AO does trend negative on the GEFS in the 10-15 day range, which would coincide well with a potential event. While it's too early to declare anything with any certainty, it appears that the 1998 blowtorch PAC disaster is less likely for January if we are to believe various climate and ensemble models. This is really the wildcard to me. I wonder what type of implications this will have in February? I don't think we've ever seen a nino "hang on" like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro has actually trended quite a bit towards the GFS in the medium/long range. It's even sticking a sneaky SWFE event in the SNE that the GFS had days ago. Interestingly enough, the AO does trend negative on the GEFS in the 10-15 day range, which would coincide well with a potential event. While it's too early to declare anything with any certainty, it appears that the 1998 blowtorch PAC disaster is less likely for January if we are to believe various climate and ensemble models. This is really the wildcard to me. I wonder what type of implications this will have in February? I don't think we've ever seen a nino "hang on" like this before. If it continues on this strenth, probably will torch again after this little hiccup. Taking a loot at the 850mb zonal wind 4casts show another strong WWB over ENSO 3.4 & enso 3. This Nino won't be declining fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 If it continues on this strenth, probably will torch again after this little hiccup. Taking a loot at the 850mb zonal wind 4casts show another strong WWB over ENSO 3.4 & enso 3. This Nino won't be declining fast. u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif it petered out some on today's prog http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro h5 look is pretty decent at the end of the run. Nice split flow, plenty of cold across the conus, 50/50 low about to be in place, and energy digging into the SW. I can definitely extrapolate a snowstorm d12-13. lol same as my thoughts Bob, and there looks to be, at least, stale cold around on day 10 ensembles may be interesting http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2015122312&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=217 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 same as my thoughts Bob, and there looks to be, at least, stale cold around on day 10 ensembles may be interesting EPS definitely improved with our chances by d9-10. A couple blitzes mixed in there but far from a strong signal. Trending colder around the 3-5th period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This would change the mood around here. Hr 234 ens #16. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 it petered out some on today's prog http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html That is what I have been trying to say its going to strengthen some the el nino then weaken then strengthen. It's fluctuating a lot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This would change the mood around here. Hr 234 ens #16. lolz sixteen.JPG Probably dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 18z for Jan 2 has plenty of cold air around and a storm too far east for us (at the present time).Then a coastal forms and deepens off the NJ coast hitting North Jersey into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Just checking in before the 00z runs, but the 18z GFS was prob the best run of the winter so far when it comes to weenie threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 One thing the globals seem to agree on is a pretty steep pna ridge popping and tightly spaced shortwaves embedded in the flow. This is going to cause model mayhem at ranges outside of 5 days. Since we're still 8+/- days away from that pattern even being in place it's pretty silly to dissect any op run. With that being said I do like seeing multiple vorts and closed ull's showing up on the ops. Nothing worse than getting a good +pna going that only keeps us cool and dry with sheared vorts and no moisture. I doubt that will be the case during the first week of Jan. With the rather sharp ridge/trough configuration that we keep seeing, shortwaves "should" have a good chance at amplifying or even closing off. We just need to hope that one sets it's sights on us. Anywhere from the SE to NNE is probably in the game from what I'm seeing right now. Just gotta keep waiting it out for another week until the medium range has more clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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