Ian Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Define "arctic blast". Verbatim, GFS is showing highs in the mid-upper 30s and lows in the mid-upper 20s. That's called January I think. Maybe we get a day or two with sub-freezing highs? Not sure that's really arctic air for early January. Good thing about global warming is it makes normal temps feel cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Good thing about global warming is it makes normal temps feel cold. It's a "WTOP Arctic Blast" because lord knows they'll be moaning and complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 It's just Analog analysis Who knows what's going to happen, but I'm crossing my fingers for some kind of frozen precip before the end of January... Photos from http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/extended.php?rundt=2015122200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nice tweet by CIPS Analog Guidance a bit ago: Love when met resources are weenies. Ahhh Twitter.. need RTs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 If I remember correctly from the Kocin book in particular, big storms can happen when we're transitioning from a neg NAO to a positive phase. We don't necessarily want a static phase either way I guess. I think more of them occur during negative to positive transitions. I think somewhere in the Jan 1-4 is our best chance. Beyond that time range on the GEFS the the heights everywhere in N.A. go above normal and the Atlantic side still looks bad once we lose the negative anomaly near the coast. yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Very different looks on the Euro vs GFS at 240. Euro has a stronger low in Tennessee and a much broader trough or cool air behind it (though warmer air over the coast ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Very different looks on the Euro vs GFS at 240. Euro has a stronger low in Tennessee and a much broader trough or cool air behind it (though warmer air over the coast ahead of it. Was just about to mention that... 1003 MSLP in eastern TN that is quite juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Very different looks on the Euro vs GFS at 240. Euro has a stronger low in Tennessee and a much broader trough or cool air behind it (though warmer air over the coast ahead of it. Whatever is slower bringing the trof east is probably correct I would lean towards that euro idea right now we aren't going to sweep that trof to or off the east coast by January 1 or December 31 I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Whatever is slower bringing the trof east is probably correct I would lean towards that euro idea right now we aren't going to sweep that trof to or off the east coast by January 1 or December 31 I don't think And the GFS at 240 has a small lp in western TN which looks to transfer to the coast and rides north just off the coast. GFS shows pretty cool air over us, even with the small lp in western TN. Somewhat similar but I don't see the EURO maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 As expected euro ens have juat about zero support for the d10 thing and as snow goose already said, the d10 trough/front progression will likely be slower/weaker vs faster/stronger. D10-15 very much a typical nino pattern and remains a viable window. Certainly the coldest air of the year on the way and not the in one day out the next kind of pattern. Nice to see it not getting pushed back in time either. The fly in the ointment is the ridge in nw Canada rolls too far east over time. Temps would moderate towards the end of the period and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Paytern at 360 is pretty classic strong nino with BN snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Define "arctic blast". Verbatim, GFS is showing highs in the mid-upper 30s and lows in the mid-upper 20s. That's called January I think. Maybe we get a day or two with sub-freezing highs? Not sure that's really arctic air for early January. Twitter is nothing if not a platform for hyperbole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Paytern at 360 is pretty classic strong nino with BN snow. Not a perfect match but awful close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 As expected euro ens have juat about zero support for the d10 thing and as snow goose already said, the d10 trough/front progression will likely be slower/weaker vs faster/stronger. D10-15 very much a typical nino pattern and remains a viable window. Certainly the coldest air of the year on the way and not the in one day out the next kind of pattern. Nice to see it not getting pushed back in time either. The fly in the ointment is the ridge in nw Canada rolls too far east over time. Temps would moderate towards the end of the period and beyond. With no meaningful NA blocking, I think we will have to make do with relatively transient cold shots being our new, improved pattern for the next few weeks. If Cohen is to be believed, things are on track for weakening of the PV, and possibly a more sustained -AO by late January. Usual outs and caveats with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Not a perfect match but awful close... The two weeks that followed that would be acceptable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Not a perfect match but awful close... jan835.JPG I like 82-83 as a primary analog but I'm not sure that gives me too much hope as that Feb storm still needed a lot of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Some of the 18z GFS ensembles showed some MECS solutions for the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z EURO LR is way different with the 500mb pattern across the Conus compared to 12z. We'll see if it leads to anything Day 9-10 Bit off topic, but anyone want to road trip to North Texas for their blizzard next week? Looks like parts of Texas could see 1-2 feet. I got Lubbock, Texas as an early destination, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z EURO LR is way different with the 500mb pattern across the Conus compared to 12z. We'll see if it leads to anything Day 9-10 Bit off topic, but anyone want to road trip to North Texas for their blizzard next week? Looks like parts of Texas could see 1-2 feet. I got Lubbock, Texas as an early destination, lol. Looks like it would look like the ggem past 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z GEFS individ ensembles are a lil bit intriguing... 6 out of the 20 members on Raleigh's has DCA getting 3" or more of snow within the next 8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z GEFS individ ensembles are a lil bit intriguing... 6 out of the 20 members on Raleigh's has DCA getting 3" or more of snow within the next 8 days I checked out the individual 00z Euro members and only 2 of 50 have DCA getting snow over the next 10 days (a T and 2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So....how we lookin? Great to see the enthusiasm in this thread this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So....how we lookin? Great to see the enthusiasm in this thread this morning! Just waiting for the flux pulsing to begin perturbing the polar vortex. Once the PV gets perturbed, we are in business. Just cant know yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So....how we lookin? Great to see the enthusiasm in this thread this morning! I'm actually more enthused than I've ever been so far. I mean, that's not saying much, but I'm actually checking the models daily now whereas before, I'd just get a quick summary here and move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 So....how we lookin? Great to see the enthusiasm in this thread this morning! Not much to say. Have to wait until a real front clears us sometime around the 1-2nd. Then a brief window of opportunity for cold rain or warm snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looking like the strat guys are not as optimistic as they were a week ago in regards to forecasted wave action affecting and weakening the PV . Looks like it might be much later into Jan for that to happen, and then take into consideration the lag time for a - AO to develop. The weakening of the El Nino is also not happening, and even if it did , will it really matter. In my area, around Delaware, just below the canal, I have never had an above normal snowfall season without an above normal snowfall in the preceding December. That happened in 02 and 09, very different now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looking like the strat guys are not as optimistic as they were a week ago in regards to forecasted wave action affecting and weakening the PV . Looks like it might be much later into Jan for that to happen, and then take into consideration the lag time for a - AO to develop. The weakening of the El Nino is also not happening, and even if it did , will it really matter. In my area, around Delaware, just below the canal, I have never had an above normal snowfall season without an above normal snowfall in the preceding December. That happened in 02 and 09, very different now. Cohen and the folks at AER just updated their blog 2 days ago, and seem pretty optimistic...fwiw. The atmosphere is currently experiencing a pulse of energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere that will last the remainder of the week. The models are predicting a second pulse during the first week of January and we continue to anticipate even further energy transfer. This will begin to perturb or disturb the polar vortex starting this week, which will likely peak sometime in January. High snow cover and low sea ice this past fall favored a weakening of the polar vortex preferentially in January. The latest weather model forecasts increase our confidence in a weakening or perturbed polar vortex in January (the GFS more so than the ECMWF and this needs to be closely monitored). Following the polar vortex weakening the negative phase of the AO, cold temperatures and potentially an increase in snowstorms is favored across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes including the Eastern United States, Europe and East Asia. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 You don't have to have a sswe to get a negative ao/nao going. Just one of many many examples is Dec 2010. Of course having a big strong and cold vortex is hurting us this year. I doubt the AO remains strongly + this year. The current + phase will wear out at some point. What that means sensible wx wise (assuming it happens) is impossible to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 You don't have to have a sswe to get a negative ao/nao going. Just one of many many examples is Dec 2010. Of course having a big strong and cold vortex is hurting us this year. I doubt the AO remains strongly + this year. The current + phase will wear out at some point. What that means sensible wx wise (assuming it happens) is impossible to know. Exactly. And no matter what the mechanism is to get the AO negative, or even if it never does, as long as we get a period of anomalous cold and snow, all will be well. And Cohen will again be able to claim victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Exactly. And no matter what the mechanism is to get the AO negative, or even if it never does, as long as we get a period of anomalous cold and snow, all will be well. And Cohen will again be able to claim victory. I've said this for years...when the board is full of SSWE chatter it means we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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