mattie g Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Still sad to punt the two month period with the lowest sun angle. It is what it is though. It is, but it shouldn't be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Hmmm....dare I say we have our first real window of op? First time in a month that CPC analogs had anything of interest so I took a look at the top 6 from today's D11+. And wouldn't you know it. All 6 had some sort of frozen event. The full buffet. Cold rain starting as sleet, a little freezing rain in the mix, a couple mangled events, and a couple decent ones...heh. I'm not asking for a blizzard. Just something to track. I'll take anything. Ice, sleet, or a mangled inch would be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Bob must be having two cups of coffee today. Ian is probably making an MS Paint map showing that statistically we're screwed. Wes has probably been tuning up his rods and reels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Haha, Bob slipped in while I was posting. Too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Heh, add the 1975 and 1965 dates to the event list...8 out of 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Bob must be having two cups of coffee today. Ian is probably making an MS Paint map showing that statistically we're screwed. Wes has probably been tuning up his rods and reels.I haven't really wavered from a window in that zone. AO should go briefly negative too it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I haven't really wavered from a window in that zone. AO should go briefly negative it seems. Ha...I know. You've been posting a bunch of maps and it got me thinking if one crude paint map you tossed out a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I haven't really wavered from a window in that zone. AO should go briefly negative too it seems. Considering it's our first opportunity at actually having the mid levels and surface cooperate, we just gotta go all in...lol Regular and the parallel 45 day eps shows some support for that period. And looks pretty good for chances during the second half of Jan. Weenie graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I still think that we might see a lil something around NYE... GFS individual ensembles have been hinting at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Ian, have you looked at the paralell weeklies out to D46? Second half of Jan into Feb actually looks pretty good. Definitely nino type of split flow with decent troughing in the east. Temps aren't bad either. http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/weekly_eps_parallel.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Ian, have you looked at the paralell weeklies out to D46? Second half of Jan into Feb actually looks pretty good. Definitely nino type of split flow with decent troughing in the east. Temps aren't bad either. http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/weekly_eps_parallel.php No, hadn't seen that. Will have to keep an eye on it ahead. One thing for sure is we're seeing a lot of classic Nino looks ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Some of the 06z GFS individ ensembles are showing a pretty decent storm (wet snow?) Jan 1/2 P015 to go please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Some of the 06z GFS individ ensembles are showing a pretty decent storm (wet snow?) Jan 1/2 That's right at the beginning of any window that would offer chances. CPC analogs would suggest the door opens during that period. We're probably going to see lots of fantasy op storms over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 That's right at the beginning of any window that would offer chances. CPC analogs would suggest the door opens during that period. We're probably going to see lots of fantasy op storms over the next 10 days. Def agree... I edited my post above to single out one of the members which goes ballistic with 2 feet of snow It does appear as you and Ian have mentioned that the first week in January may give us our first chance of at least SnowTV... but hopefully more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Safe to assume Nino strength is in a slow weakening phase as anticipated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Def agree... I edited my post above to single out one of the members which goes ballistic with 2 feet of snow It does appear as you and Ian have mentioned that the first week in January may give us our first chance of at least SnowTV... but hopefully more than that It's definitely not a big storm pattern. In fact, we really don't want a big storm. Outside of dumb luck there is nothing that points toward a good track and temps will likely be borderline at best. I would hedge that any organized big LP would be a rainer. Once we get a cold boundary south of us (for the first time in over a month. lol) I could envision some type of overrunning or weak wave working out. Just spitballing of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GFS is close to a decent storm Day 11... just a bit too far east for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GFS is close to a decent storm Day 11... just a bit too far east for anyone Would argue for a high terrain event, not much cold air support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Would argue for a high terrain event, not much cold air support. The entire column is below freezing basically to the Chesapeake bay. It silly to dissect anything on an op run this far out but if you are going to at least be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Ha, I'm too slow. I was using 06z Good to see. GFS kinda just floods everywhere with high pressure up north but eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 if that AO chart is right I'll be interested to see what the models pop for the 1-4,5,6 timeframe. I remember Wes saying some of our best snows happen during + to - transitions of AO/NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 GFS kinda just floods everywhere with high pressure up north but eh. Yea, the pna and scand ridge reach out and shake hands. Color me skeptical but at least the AO is the right color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The entire column is below freezing basically to the Chesapeake bay. It silly to dissect anything on an op run this far out but if you are going to at least be accurate. I'm just thinking, the column would move west if the storm hugged the coast. I know it's gg for here no matter what during this winter due to a combination of record warm waters and weak airmasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 8 out of the 10 cpc analogs had slightly to very negative monthly AO readings for Jan. The interesting part is that all of the analogs showing d11+ are "new" compared to the ones that have been showing over and over all Dec. Makes one wonder if the pattern change coming up is a pre-cursor to actually getting some help from the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 if that AO chart is right I'll be interested to see what the models pop for the 1-4,5,6 timeframe. I remember Wes saying some of our best snows happen during + to - transitions of AO/NAO I think more of them occur during negative to positive transitions. I think somewhere in the Jan 1-4 is our best chance. Beyond that time range on the GEFS the the heights everywhere in N.A. go above normal and the Atlantic side still looks bad once we lose the negative anomaly near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I think more of them occur during negative to positive transitions. I think somewhere in the Jan 1-4 is our best chance. Beyond that time range on the GEFS the the heights everywhere in N.A. go above normal and the Atlantic side still looks bad once we lose the negative anomaly near the coast. + to - - to + I was close. It just shows I was really listening during your conference presentations and not in a drunken stupor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nice tweet by CIPS Analog Guidance a bit ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GEFS individ members pretty much all over the place after Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Nice tweet by CIPS Analog Guidance a bit ago: Define "arctic blast". Verbatim, GFS is showing highs in the mid-upper 30s and lows in the mid-upper 20s. That's called January I think. Maybe we get a day or two with sub-freezing highs? Not sure that's really arctic air for early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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