Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It has been a terrible winter so far, we've had 0 threats to be excited about. Let us enjoy it. The 12z EURO had a very similar setup, it just moved the 50/50 low westward towards the end (which doesn't make sense with a W based block)...The 18z GFS shows you what can happen when you lock in a 50/50 like that. Honestly, the setup for this event on the GFS starts Day 6 when the energy crashes into the West Coast and the 50/50 ULL begins to form. IMO this is the first legit LR threat we've had all season. I meant it as a positive, the 18z almost brought a tear to my eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 <JI> GFS still shows rain at 348 hours though <JI> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Save this image. perfect.gif Yeah, that's fairly classic for a KU-level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Would be a good time to start a new thread with fresh mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yeah, that's fairly classic for a KU-level event.Notice how heavy precip tails off as you head NE of us. Has that 2/83 signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Notice how heavy precip tails off as you head NE of us. Has that 2/83 signature. Love it. That deform band is right over us in some of those frames, and psuhoffman/Highstakes/mappy are almost in the jackpot along with the Winchester crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Let's get this to happen and we'll call it a winter after our 1983 type Feb storm in feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just out of curiosity, how close to pd 2 would this storm be if it happened like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just out of curiosity, how close to pd 2 would this storm be if it happened like this? PD 2 had a enormous HP moving across SE Canada, I think it maxed near 1052.. That's what drove the early heavy snow was overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yep. the 18Z actually is faster withe the northern stream initially but also has more negative heights near Nova Scotia. That's a positive. today's 18Z GFS pretty much shows why you can't say anything definitive about snow 10 days out no matter what the models say. It now shows snow at least for the western suburbs for Jan 17th and if you look at the anomalies has more of a negative anomaly near Nova Scotia than the earlier runs. That doesn't mean we get snow, it only means that at that time range, we still don't know enough about all the players to make a call. Based on the storm track, I still think we have a hard road to hoe but not an impossible one. The mddels often have problems handling the northern stream. Wes, I thought the 12z euro ens made a nice step with heights near NS. I personally thought d10-15 mean was the best I've seen all years in regards to the pieces being in the right place in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just out of curiosity, how close to pd 2 would this storm be if it happened like this? PDII was mostly a very moist overrunning event in our area that had a very strong Arctic high but not much of a coastal. This storm as shown on the latest GFS looks like an explosive noreaster with a 973 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Weeklies still show block breaking down but it breaks down into someting not horrible at least in the means. Wxbell looks a little close to meh by day 20+ but hasn't finished coming out and I think weeklies strength has been more with the STJ and such since we lost the torchcember look at range there. Also first time I remember seeing above avg precip in a while.. Week 3.. Jan 25-Feb 1. Week prior is just offshore, week after is a bit of a suppressed look which kind of matches the weeklies pattern by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 PDII was mostly a very moist overrunning event in our area that had a very strong Arctic high but not much of a coastal. This storm as shown on the latest GFS looks like an explosive noreaster with a 973 low. That was my recollection as well. I remembered it being a very strong CAD situation. I was on the wrong side of the CAD though. I was so jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That was my recollection as well. I remembered it being a very strong CAD situation. I was on the wrong side of the CAD though. I was so jealous. Haven't added to page yet since I posted it early y-day for Blizz of 96 action but it barely even looks like a storm.. http://www.ianlivingston.com/d-c-s-double-digit-snowstorms-a-guide-to-their-development-and-the-patterns-that-produced-them/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 During the storm, if someone could analysis on this map, that would be great. Could someone tell me what about this image makes this the GFS show the particular solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 During the storm, if someone could analysis on this map, that would be great. Could someone tell me what about this image makes this the GFS show the particular solution. West based NAO is in a great spot, and unlike other runs, this one has a nice 50/50 low (a vortex near Newfoundland which is crucial for holding in cold air during an East coast snowstorm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 New thread gang. This one is a bit long. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47563-january-medlong-range-disco-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Would be a good time to start a new thread with fresh mojo That map that Mitchnick linked to had WinterWxLuvr in 30"+. I would say let this thread ride for at least five more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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