PaEasternWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Um... Wow! How beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 OH Valley/Great Lakes low screwing it up like the GFS and Euro ops? yeah to some degree. pretty weak reflection there and offshore.. waiting to see the indiv low locations. actually, the pattern might be better after too. looks like perhaps a second shot right on the heels of that one based on anom locations and the look out west gets better with time after as well. not sure we'd score while the -NAO is peaking anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 A very strong -AO/-NAO seems to have always performed for mid-atlantic in a Moderate/Strong Nino. If we get the blocking that is forecast, I dont' imagine this nino will be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 A very strong -AO/-NAO seems to have always performed for mid-atlantic in a Moderate/Strong Nino. If we get the blocking that is forecast, I dont' imagine this nino will be any different. Not in '97/'98 it didn't (unless that Nino didn't have blocking) - a winter that featured a succession of east coast storms that brought rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I've only had a chance to glance through the euro ens. Short story is don't fall asleep on d10. Mixed bag of solutions and better than last night. Beyond that definitely looking better. Psu would approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Was a really good run of the EPS imo.. one of the best I've seen. If it's right that 16-18 is the opening of a longer window. The evolution looks quite ideal into the end.... even get that ridge axis from the SW to the polar region. Think we need to see -NAO flex and then go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Not in '97/'98 it didn't (unless that Nino didn't have blocking) - a winter that featured a succession of east coast storms that brought rain. We never really had anything close to a consistent +PNA or -EPO in 97-98 if I remember right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 A very strong -AO/-NAO seems to have always performed for mid-atlantic in a Moderate/Strong Nino. If we get the blocking that is forecast, I dont' imagine this nino will be any different. Exactly what I was thinking! There's almost always an anomaly somewhere, but I agree with what you're saying. eta: (God I've been doing this a lot) Early 1998 appears to have been a transitional rise with the NAO opposite to what models are showing. Better yet, maybe the AO was the culprit! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We never really had anything close to a consistent +PNA or -EPO in 97-98 if I remember right.97-98 actually had strong -AO and -NAO. The problem was the raging +EPO that winter. There even some strong +PNA at times but to no avail....The +EPO just steamrolled everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Um... Wow! How beautiful. That's a good Miller B pattern with a vortex to our NW...We can get front thumped in that pattern..Maybe the MLK storm will show us some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Whoa baby, check out the GFS @ 192 hours....epic setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 My god, 210 hours, that has the ingredients of an absolute mega storm. Idc if it shows a cutter, with that big ULL in SE Canada it would most def. force a redevelopment situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 (this is just for fun since it is 200+ hrs out) 216 hrs, 50/50 low is locked in. Potent Shortwave down south. Low in NE Lousiana, but isobars hint at redevelopment off the SE Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 984mb in E NC at 231. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 If this image doesn't get your juices flowing, nothing will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Wow, 15+" for most, especially 15-20mi NW burbs... As Ji would say, the setup for the storm starts @ day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 excitement for 6 hours enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Wow, 15+" for most, especially 15-20mi NW burbs... As Ji would say, the setup for the storm starts @ day 7 You had me convinced we have a decent shot until you muttered the JI quote. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That's the timing we need that Psu mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We got our unicorn! Let's see if we can get it to last more than one op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016010718&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That's the timing we need that Psu mentioned earlier. We need to catch that southern stream s/w when the northern stream lulls and gets out of the way. Apparently 18z did that. 12z Euro and GFS were not that far from something special like this, just had too much northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 excitement for 6 hours enjoy it It has been a terrible winter so far, we've had 0 threats to be excited about. Let us enjoy it. The 12z EURO had a very similar setup, it just moved the 50/50 low westward towards the end (which doesn't make sense with a W based block)...The 18z GFS shows you what can happen when you lock in a 50/50 like that. Honestly, the setup for this event on the GFS starts Day 6 when the energy crashes into the West Coast and the 50/50 ULL begins to form. IMO this is the first legit LR threat we've had all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We need to catch that southern stream s/w when the northern stream lulls and gets out of the way. Apparently 18z did that. 12z Euro and GFS were not that far from something special like this, just had too much northern stream. Yep. the 18Z actually is faster withe the northern stream initially but also has more negative heights near Nova Scotia. That's a positive. today's 18Z GFS pretty much shows why you can't say anything definitive about snow 10 days out no matter what the models say. It now shows snow at least for the western suburbs for Jan 17th and if you look at the anomalies has more of a negative anomaly near Nova Scotia than the earlier runs. That doesn't mean we get snow, it only means that at that time range, we still don't know enough about all the players to make a call. Based on the storm track, I still think we have a hard road to hoe but not an impossible one. The mddels often have problems handling the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Save this image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Can't wait to see hires, that's gotta be a sub 970mb over Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Save this image. perfect.gif No 240 is the one 524dm closed low over the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 No 240 is the one 522dm closed low over the Chesapeake. Well yeah, I'm more of a fan of a good setup than the actual storm. I'm weird like that lol To me, if the setup is there the storm will play out how we want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Happy Hour GooFus! Damn man. Wes storm is alive and kickin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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