Yeoman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 there's no doubt that the PAC is messing up the flow, at least on this run thru 168 hrs. Is that the Pacific Antarctic Cancellation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 its not even cold next week...maybe one day below freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 euro text output already has it near 50 by next weekend Well next weekend isn't 10-15 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 and...rain for next weekend. High 36-42 per Euro txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Well next weekend isn't 10-15 days away maybe its not the january 16-17th storm..maybe the 23-24:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 and...rain for next weekend. High 36-42 per Euro txt At least it's a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 there's no doubt that the PAC is messing up the flow, at least on this run thru 168 hrs. Getting really tired of seeing the gl low. i think we are getting shutout this month and possibly winter patience, we are still in a transition period. I know we all want it to happen NOW but the block is literally just getting going now, and it isn't really a classic block that helps us much for another week. Then we often need to wait a week or two after that to see results on the ground. That puts us towards the last week of January and into February and guess what that is when nino climo says our best chances start as well. If we are still chasing pattern changes and ghosts in February then I get worried. I will take this look going into late January and take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 patience, we are still in a transition period. I know we all want it to happen NOW but the block is literally just getting going now, and it isn't really a classic block that helps us much for another week. Then we often need to wait a week or two after that to see results on the ground. That puts us towards the last week of January and into February and guess what that is when nino climo says our best chances start as well. If we are still chasing pattern changes and ghosts in February then I get worried. I will take this look going into late January and take my chances. nice.gif patience? this week was suppose to be our transition period. Next week was suppose to be cold and snow especially as we approached Wes storm weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 patience, we are still in a transition period. I know we all want it to happen NOW but the block is literally just getting going now, and it isn't really a classic block that helps us much for another week. Then we often need to wait a week or two after that to see results on the ground. That puts us towards the last week of January and into February and guess what that is when nino climo says our best chances start as well. If we are still chasing pattern changes and ghosts in February then I get worried. I will take this look going into late January and take my chances. nice.gif im getting tired of 384 hour maps....we cant get anything within 10 days and your showing me a 16 day map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 patience? this week was suppose to be our transition period. Next week was suppose to be cold and snow especially as we approached Wes storm weekend I know, its frustrating, i wont pretend it doesn't bother me also but the models usually rush pattern changes like this. Also, the blocking has not been getting pushed back, only the appearance of phantom unicorn storms on the op runs for us to look at. The pattern is actually moving closer in time, we are just now seeing a more realistic evolution of how that pattern will play out at the surface over the CONUS showing up on models. Go back and look at when the AO tanks and blocking regimes start and then look at when the big snows usually hit. There is often a significant lag time. Take it for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 its rain according to the numbers lol and its not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 I know, its frustrating, i wont pretend it doesn't bother me also but the models usually rush pattern changes like this. Also, the blocking has not been getting pushed back, only the appearance of phantom unicorn storms on the op runs for us to look at. The pattern is actually moving closer in time, we are just now seeing a more realistic evolution of how that pattern will play out at the surface over the CONUS showing up on models. Go back and look at when the AO tanks and blocking regimes start and then look at when the big snows usually hit. There is often a significant lag time. Take it for what its worth. Check out the pattern thread - I mused on that question earlier based on some of your posts this AM and btr did the legwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 its rain according to the numbers lol and its not even close Maybe, but great placement, no GLL... I guess those are the details that will fluctuate, but it sure looks like a better interaction between STJ and northern flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Maybe, but great placement, no GLL... I guess those are the details that will fluctuate, but it sure looks like a better interaction between STJ and northern flow. there is a GLL low in the panel before that im sure is playing havoc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 its rain according to the numbers lol and its not even close Maybe, but great placement, no GLL... I guess those are the details that will fluctuate, but it sure looks like a better interaction between STJ and northern flow. If the euro is a few degrees too warm with the preceding air mass ahead of that storm, the primary probably transfers sooner and that becomes a snowstorm. Minor minor detail for a day 10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I know, its frustrating, i wont pretend it doesn't bother me also but the models usually rush pattern changes like this. Also, the blocking has not been getting pushed back, only the appearance of phantom unicorn storms on the op runs for us to look at. The pattern is actually moving closer in time, we are just now seeing a more realistic evolution of how that pattern will play out at the surface over the CONUS showing up on models. Go back and look at when the AO tanks and blocking regimes start and then look at when the big snows usually hit. There is often a significant lag time. Take it for what its worth. Great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 patience, we are still in a transition period. I know we all want it to happen NOW but the block is literally just getting going now, and it isn't really a classic block that helps us much for another week. Then we often need to wait a week or two after that to see results on the ground. That puts us towards the last week of January and into February and guess what that is when nino climo says our best chances start as well. If we are still chasing pattern changes and ghosts in February then I get worried. I will take this look going into late January and take my chances. nice.gif LOL, yes, into spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Sick block on the Day 8-10 EURO but it somehow still shows a cutter. Here is the day 10 500mb map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Could someone tell me what the ECMFW showed for the Jan 17-18 timeframe. I heard it was good as per the accuweather forums but I just do not know the specifics. Thanks! I can tell you that the EPS looked great a few days ago for the 11th. About all you need to know about 10 day forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yes, I am the one who said it. Perhaps it is based upon what one wants. I personally don't care about "big" snow. I would much rather have consistent winter weather. I think the Pacific is more important for that. To each his own, I guess. I can see your POV. I don't think there's one silver bullet. But like most I'm looking for the 12-18"+ not the 1-3" mix. A strong nino difference composite at 500mb shows the higher hights over the PAC well for snowy months vs non snowy. Even a hint of a less super-powered STJ across the southern US--which hasn't been our problem here so far per se. Mod-strong since 1950 similar.. also reiterates we shouldn't necessarily expect above average snow in Jan around here in Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I like Dr. NO saying no from the get go in the LR. Trend will be in our favor going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I like Dr. NO saying no from the get go in the LR. Trend will be in our favor going forward. on behalf of JI, I know he's feeling better now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I can tell you that the EPS looked great a few days ago for the 11th. About all you need to know about 10 day forecasts. I just can't help but feel excited about the upcoming pattern. Its full of potential with the teles lining up. Even the EPO does not look that bad with it going neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 16th-18th hard to give up on. EPS certainly has potential even if verbatim it's mild at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Sick block on the Day 8-10 EURO but it somehow still shows a cutter. Here is the day 10 500mb map. eurp.png It's actually not a cutter Image from wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Euro is 36 at surface for the 16/17th deal. Not something that cannot be overcome/change over the next 9 days if there is even really a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It's actually not a cutter Image from wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well "technically" it isn't a cutter, but it serves the same purpose. Temps are mild and there's a huge ridge out ahead of the low even with the block. I would guess if that block & 50/50 that forms day 7 is legit there would be no way it would turn out like the 12z run does. It doesn't matter though it will be different in 12 hours anyway. I'm just happy to see a block being modeled like we're seeing. 3 weeks ago we would KILL to see something like this showing up in the models so let's just watch it play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 16th-18th hard to give up on. EPS certainly has potential even if verbatim it's mild at the sfc. OH Valley/Great Lakes low screwing it up like the GFS and Euro ops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Euro is 36 at surface for the 16/17th deal. Not something that cannot be overcome/change over the next 9 days if there is even really a storm. About 46 at 850mb though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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