WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I was simply pointing out that we do have a very active southern stream, more than usual....it just isn't going under us yet. It probably will though, and soon. Hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The last two winters had a massive -EPO. Good luck getting that when there's a huge vortex over the Gulf of Alaska, which is typical in a strong El Niño. Now you are changing what has been said. Nobody is speculating on the what might happen in the Pacific. Yeah, the EPO probably isn't going to help. The discussion was about the importance of the Pacific. Let's look at facts. Last 3 winters = pretty good with no Atlantic help. 2011-12 = awful winter with Atlantic help (I think that was the year). Right now = nothing with Atlantic help. Of course, that may change soon. We all wait. The statement was that the Pacific is more important. I'll stand by that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Pattern this and pattern that, sooner or later you need a storm. No northern stream = no clippers. And where the hell is the stj? What's the point of even having a Nino? By the middle of February, we are going be crying about the lack of storms, not the lack of cold. That is, unless something changes. both are there, but the northern stream is racing by to our north, even with the blocking it doesn't want to dig south of us. The STJ then either gets squashed under it, or if it phases goes to our north/west. There is no lack of storms, I think what people see is on runs that are cold because nothing phases there is a lack of storms, then we get a run like 6z gfs where we get 2 storms but both are rain. What we don't see right now are runs with snowstorms... Need the northern stream to either get out of the way and relax, or to dig more and phase south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 both are there, but the northern stream is racing by to our north, even with the blocking it doesn't want to dig south of us. The STJ then either gets squashed under it, or if it phases goes to our north/west. There is no lack of storms, I think what people see is on runs that are cold because nothing phases there is a lack of storms, then we get a run like 6z gfs where we get 2 storms but both are rain. What we don't see right now are runs with snowstorms... Need the northern stream to either get out of the way and relax, or to dig more and phase south of us. Exactly. I think people are overthinking too much. It's time to let the chips fall for a couple weeks. Nuances between the streams has about as much clarity as the date yellowstone is going to erupt. Until we get past this weekend's rainer and move into next week, it's futile to make sense of sensible wx. Lot's of chatter about the big -ao/+pna combo almost guaranteeing snow. Doesn't work like that. And it's not a perfect snow pattern. You don't have to look any further than heights in SE canada and off the coast of NF. Still positive. Still plenty of risk of a nw track with any storm with that general look in spite of the -ao/nao. It can work but requires good timing and that's not something anyone can make a definitive statement on. 0z EPS ticked up in snow storms overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Well, I care. I mean, I don't want to see them continue to endure that awful drought. I guess I need to keep my expectations in check. I was expecting to see a few storms slide under us and that doesn't seem to be happening. I'm with you there. I like storms, even if they are rain. God knows, I'm not getting much rain from May through September where I live, so I at least want to cash in during the fall/winter/spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I actually believe that will happen ............................... ....as soon as peace breaks out in the middle east. Excellent post. We need to stop worrying about each (op) model run and just let things sort themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Huge block on the LR GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Man what a beautiful west based block on the LR GFS with a powerful STJ...if we don't get snow out of that setup we never would this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I actually believe that will happen ............................... ....as soon as peace breaks out in the middle east. Or it snows in the Middle East.. LOL Man I hope some unicorns starting showing themselves soon on guidance. I don't want to see what happens when the meltdown thread is opened. Anyway, hope todays GFS and Euro bring a little love back into the fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 both are there, but the northern stream is racing by to our north, even with the blocking it doesn't want to dig south of us. The STJ then either gets squashed under it, or if it phases goes to our north/west. There is no lack of storms, I think what people see is on runs that are cold because nothing phases there is a lack of storms, then we get a run like 6z gfs where we get 2 storms but both are rain. What we don't see right now are runs with snowstorms... Need the northern stream to either get out of the way and relax, or to dig more and phase south of us. how do we get all these lows out of canada/great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Huge block on the LR GFS. Oh goodie. Another great long range pattern. J/K ... having a little fun. I'm glad it's there. It's better than a poor pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Somebody start a new thread. This one is at 49 pages with absolutely nothing to show for it. I'm a mojo believer, lol. We something new. And I'm not starting it. I tried twice and all I got for us was the warmest December in the history of the universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Exactly. I think people are overthinking too much. It's time to let the chips fall for a couple weeks. Nuances between the streams has about as much clarity as the date yellowstone is going to erupt. Until we get past this weekend's rainer and move into next week, it's futile to make sense of sensible wx. Lot's of chatter about the big -ao/+pna combo almost guaranteeing snow. Doesn't work like that. And it's not a perfect snow pattern. You don't have to look any further than heights in SE canada and off the coast of NF. Still positive. Still plenty of risk of a nw track with any storm with that general look in spite of the -ao/nao. It can work but requires good timing and that's not something anyone can make a definitive statement on. 0z EPS ticked up in snow storms overnight. I feel that if we keep the general pattern look developing our snow chances will increase as we get later into winter. That probably requires more patience then most of us (myself included) have but it may be the reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Man what a beautiful west based block on the LR GFS with a powerful STJ...if we don't get snow out of that setup we never would this year. and the roller coaster ride of emotions continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Man what a beautiful west based block on the LR GFS with a powerful STJ...if we don't get snow out of that setup we never would this year. We probably will, if that setup verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 how do we get all these lows out of canada/great lakes either the northern stream relaxes and stops tracking vorts across where we need highs every 36 hours... or have the northern stream dig more and get under us. The first may be a response to the pac SST torch so perhaps we need to wait for the second option which becomes more and more likely the later into winter we get as wavelengths shorten and the northern stream can dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Now you are changing what has been said. Nobody is speculating on the what might happen in the Pacific. Yeah, the EPO probably isn't going to help. The discussion was about the importance of the Pacific. Let's look at facts. Last 3 winters = pretty good with no Atlantic help. 2011-12 = awful winter with Atlantic help (I think that was the year). Right now = nothing with Atlantic help. Of course, that may change soon. We all wait. The statement was that the Pacific is more important. I'll stand by that statement. Just for the record I didn't mean the Pac is more important, just that it's important. I still tend to think -NAO/-AO are most important of those indices for at least big snow around here. But this year in particular we need the Pac to cooperate a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12z GGEM has light snow Tuesday Night/Wednesday Pre Dawn. Also a Interior SNE Pummeling, but that's the GGEM for you. Also 12z UKIE at hr 144 has a 1002mb off the coast, but likely too Far East (Ocean City Longitide, Nantucket Latitude), 1034mb'ish high NNE in Far Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Nice to see that vortex just east of the Maritimes, to go along with that block. Lets hope we see more of that in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Nice to see that vortex just east of the Maritimes, to go along with that block. Lets hope we see more of that in future runs. gfs_z500a_nhem_44.png that is sweet looking. just unreal to see a stout block like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 something good must be gunna' happen....there's a happy face over the Wisc/Ill border on the 5-day Euro map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010712&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=121 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 something good must be gunna' happen....there's a happy face over the Wisc/Ill border on the 5-day Euro map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010712&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=121 we live in virginia though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 that is sweet looking. just unreal to see a stout block like that. I cant stop looking at it. I might go grab a stout from the fridge and continue looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just for the record I didn't mean the Pac is more important, just that it's important. I still tend to think -NAO/-AO are most important of those indices for at least big snow around here. But this year in particular we need the Pac to cooperate a little. Yes, I am the one who said it. Perhaps it is based upon what one wants. I personally don't care about "big" snow. I would much rather have consistent winter weather. I think the Pacific is more important for that. To each his own, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I cant stop looking at it. I might go grab a stout from the fridge and continue looking. Down boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 remember when the mighty EPS mean had this storm of the East coast a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 there's no doubt that the PAC is messing up the flow, at least on this run thru 168 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Getting really tired of seeing the gl low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i think we are getting shutout this month and possibly winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 euro text output already has it near 50 by next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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