CAPE Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS just does not want to show any snow for us even in LR. Even with the block up north the 17th warms up, relatively, and rains. I just don't get it. This time there is no 50/50 showing up so it screws us. There is always some way something screws us. Seems to always be low pressure around the GL. We want to see Highs there, and low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes. Not sure how "productive" the -NAO can be for us if that doesn't change. Also the big trough near GOA seems to somewhat inhibit arctic air delivery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Seems to always be low pressure around the GL. We want to see Highs there, and low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes. Not sure how "productive" the -NAO can be for us if that doesn't change. Also the big trough near GOA seems to somewhat inhibit arctic air delivery. that said and I agree....I still like our chances especially after mid-week next week. I would take this type setup any day. I am not convinced the op has a clue this far out and the blocking looks to be real so again we should be in fat city...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 HM warns how the Pacific might screw this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 HM warns how the Pacific might screw this up a butterfly could sneeze and it would get screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 So no matter the pattern this winter...it's rain. Bring back the 70 degree temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 So no matter the pattern this winter...it's rain. Bring back the 70 degree temps Exactly. Let's get back to that December pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Exactly. Let's get back to that December pattern. Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 that said and I agree....I still like our chances especially after mid-week next week. I would take this type setup any day. I am not convinced the op has a clue this far out and the blocking looks to be real so again we should be in fat city...I think. I am somewhat nitpicking. I will take the advertised look any day and let the chips fall. Its not "exactly" what we want, but how often do we get an ideal pattern? That block should work for us. The PNA seems to want to hang positive. The GOA trough may retro some. If there is persistence with what the current ens means are showing, odds favor a few decent events towards the end of the month and into Feb. Would be pure bad luck if we end up getting nothing significant. We will be into peak climo period for snow then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Pac is critical. We like to conveniently forget we've had blocking with no or little snow before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Pac is critical. We like to conveniently forget we've had blocking with no or little snow before. And we had plenty of snow the past two years with no blocking. IMO, way too much is made of the Atlantic side. We are downstream from the Pacific and it is boss. The Pacific rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Pattern this and pattern that, sooner or later you need a storm. No northern stream = no clippers. And where the hell is the stj? What's the point of even having a Nino? By the middle of February, we are going be crying about the lack of storms, not the lack of cold. That is, unless something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 yesterday was elation...today is panic...day befor elation. Cant wait till Friday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 And we had plenty of snow the past two years with no blocking. IMO, way too much is made of the Atlantic side. We are downstream from the Pacific and it is boss. The Pacific rules. There is truth to this. And I didnt mind nickel and diming my way to above normal snowfall with modest events. I also like persistent cold with snow cover. We got that. But without the blocking, its hard to get a deep cold trough to lock in on the East coast with southern stream involvement. So not much potential for a big Miller A event. Amped up storms ended up cutters/inland runners the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 And we had plenty of snow the past two years with no blocking. IMO, way too much is made of the Atlantic side. We are downstream from the Pacific and it is boss. The Pacific rules. I'm pretty sure it was the Atlantic side that gave us 2009-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Pattern this and pattern that, sooner or later you need a storm. No northern stream = no clippers. And where the hell is the stj? What's the point of even having a Nino? By the middle of February, we are going be crying about the lack of storms, not the lack of cold. That is, unless something changes. isn't the southern jet about to send a system up the eastern lakes this weekend with qpf of 1-2+? Isn't the STJ giving huge beneficial rains to SoCal? Just because it isn't giving us snowstorms (yet) doesn't mean it isn't pumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Question posted to all, with a hope Ian responds because I know he is usually on board with me here... How long until we actually start actively rooting for *no* snow for a *historically* snowless season at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm pretty sure it was the Atlantic side that gave us 2009-10 What are you pretty sure gave us the past 5 winters? Everyone here wants to live off of 09-10. Do you seriously think a -AO and a -NAO are going to produce a winter like that? But I'm relieved that you're sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Question posted to all, with a hope Ian responds because I know he is usually on board with me here... How long until we actually start actively rooting for *no* snow for a *historically* snowless season at DCA? Feel free to begin right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We can start now. I wish we could get some momentum to add another reporting site in DC. National zoo would be a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 isn't the southern jet about to send a system up the eastern lakes this weekend with qpf of 1-2+? Isn't the STJ giving huge beneficial rains to SoCal? Just because it isn't giving us snowstorms (yet) doesn't mean it isn't pumping. Is it? I don't know. I guess I'm referring to a southern stream across the US. Not really interested in whether SoCal gets a storm that ends up in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Who cares about SoCal? I don't know of anyone here who waited 6 years for El-Nino so that SoCal could get rain. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Question posted to all, with a hope Ian responds because I know he is usually on board with me here... How long until we actually start actively rooting for *no* snow for a *historically* snowless season at DCA? on Jan 6th with epic blocking forecasted? why would anyone, except you maybe, root for no snow? we had a historic warm Dec and that was painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Who cares about SoCal? I don't know of anyone here who waited 6 years for El-Nino so that SoCal could get rain. LOL. Well, I care. I mean, I don't want to see them continue to endure that awful drought. I guess I need to keep my expectations in check. I was expecting to see a few storms slide under us and that doesn't seem to be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What are you pretty sure gave us the past 5 winters? Everyone here wants to live off of 09-10. Do you seriously think a -AO and a -NAO are going to produce a winter like that? But I'm relieved that you're sure. Yes. The extreme -AO/NAO from that winter was a huge reason it ended up being so historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yes. The extreme -AO/NAO from that winter was a huge reason it ended up being so historic. Ok, then keep hoping. For me, I'll take the patterns that produced years 2012-2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ok, then keep hoping. For me, I'll take the patterns that produced years 2012-2015. The last two winters had a massive -EPO. Good luck getting that when there's a huge vortex over the Gulf of Alaska, which is typical in a strong El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I don't think a lot has changed since yesteday. In the near term (next 5 days), we're not getting any significant snow. In the long term (6+ days), we need to be looking at ensembles. The period from the 13th-23rd still has some potential. If anything both the GEFS and GEPS ticked a little snowier from the 12z run yesterday to the 00z run last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 we wax, we wain, and we wait, so get used to it folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Seems to always be low pressure around the GL. We want to see Highs there, and low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes. Not sure how "productive" the -NAO can be for us if that doesn't change. Also the big trough near GOA seems to somewhat inhibit arctic air delivery. The northern stream is screwing this up right now. Its screaming across to our north with vorts every day or two. That means no matter when the STJ systems come along, there is likely to be a northern stream system sitting up to our north screwing it up. That will either suppress the STJ or if it phases will pull everything to our north unless we were to get absolutely perfect lucky timing. Normally great blocking encourages higher pressure to our north but possibly due to the raging nino the northern stream wants to just blast through to our north. I suspect this might be why when we do get snow in a strong nino it tends to be later (41, 58, even 66 was late jan) because the northern stream will tend to slow down and buckle more as we head later in the season. This might give us a chance as the jet naturally amplifies more, perhaps then something can dig under us and phase in a better spot. Keep the h5 pattern similar, active STJ, and get the jet to dig a big more and we are in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Is it? I don't know. I guess I'm referring to a southern stream across the US. Not really interested in whether SoCal gets a storm that ends up in Minnesota. Is it? I don't know. I guess I'm referring to a southern stream across the US. Not really interested in whether SoCal gets a storm that ends up in Minnesota. I was simply pointing out that we do have a very active southern stream, more than usual....it just isn't going under us yet. It probably will though, and soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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