WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Good deal. We have time. Just wish we could at least scratch out a small event to get started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 You mean this? I don't want to be jumping to conclusions, but that map looks close to the 5-day prior to an event map Ian posted in the pattern thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Gfs ensemble members make me think days 6-10 will be interesting to watch. Really curious to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I don't want to be jumping to conclusions, but that map looks close to the 5-day prior to an event map Ian posted in the pattern thread! eta: Why the cfs? darn! What about the cfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 What about the cfs? I saw cfsr and got confused. I see now its the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'm interested in that vort pass shown on the 12z Euro, looks pretty energetic. Wasn't that 'surprise' clipper last year where we got around 3 inches in DC pretty similar looking on 500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 BTRwx implications? if any? I don't trust the gfs op at that range so I'll be digging deeper. eta: like maybe this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looks awfully similar from what I can tell... Maybe so. The Euro tends to do better at that range, so I at least wanted to check on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm a weather watcher -- but I come here to learn. I wish I had something to contribute beyond obs. Just wanted to say thank you for very helpful and educational discussion this afternoon and evening 00 Learned a lot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm a weather watcher -- but I come here to learn. I wish I had something to contribute beyond obs. Just wanted to say thank you for very helpful and educational discussion this afternoon and evening 00 Learned a lot today. Never knew there was a place called Virgilina. I learned something too. So you ride the MA/SE line. Both sides are insane in case you didn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 - AO CHECK - NAO CHECK +PNA CHECK MJO 7-8 CHECK SNOW NOPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 - AO CHECK - NAO CHECK +PNA CHECK MJO 7-8 CHECK SNOW NOPE It gets better. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Never knew there was a place called Virgilina. I learned something too. So you ride the MA/SE line. Both sides are insane in case you didn't know. Thank you Bristow -- Indeed...nearest "large" towns are Roxboro, NC and South Boston, VA. It's interesting (whiplash-inducing sometimes) travelling back and forth between the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast conversations. We are the cold side of the SE; the warm end of the MA. Typically 5F colder than RDU; usually within a few degrees of RIC. We had a dusting two days ago. Feels like have moisture looking for the cold this winter. We have had an abundance of precip and now, cold -- but not together. I think this is how it plays out the rest of the winter (albeit, a few close calls) south of the I66 and east of the I81. Question....I've seen a few comments about how the models are struggling this season -- could it be that they are having a hard time handling such a strong Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 - AO CHECK - NAO CHECK +PNA CHECK MJO 7-8 CHECK SNOW NOPE When you lay it out like that it really is perplexingly painful. The true definition for teleconnections must be canard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Thank you Bristow -- Indeed...nearest "large" towns are Roxboro, NC and South Boston, VA. It's interesting (whiplash-inducing sometimes) travelling back and forth between the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast conversations. We are the cold side of the SE; the warm end of the MA. Typcially 5F colder than RDU; usually within a few degrees of RIC. You're literally right on the NC/VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You're literally right on the NC/VA border One foot in VA the other in NC. (Recently, we are more comfortable in VA). Gas is significantly cheaper too. We are in the middle of a solar farm, moonshine, and data center building boomlet. Schizophrenic weather and horrible wx information coverage (RDU, RIC, Lynchburg?) Oy. I'll let you all get back to your discussions. Look for me on the obs pages if/when things get interesting. Cheers, and thank you all again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 114 GFS is digging the northern stream much further this run faster southern stream and vort still is there. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_00.htm/if only the vort was faster and stronger. digging nice this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS still forms the coastal. I think this has So much potential. if the digging continues and a stronger faster vort swings out we are in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12/19 was number three analog for d 11-16 12z eps. Top three all had good snows within a few days on either side. Very cold signal overall, probably snowy in some fashion if not necessarily perfect. It's going to snow at some point. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The potential is there. Not sure I like the period yet, but even a period where we got light snow would be a win right now. If the pattern comes, we'll probably produce eventually. Edit: like Ian said lol [images] What would need to improve in order for this setup to work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 UK looks good also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Greenland block.is too far west, Hudsons bay is not where you want to see the 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I am not a pro, however for the mid atlantic a Hudson bay block isn't bad, it's bad for New England, I thought a strong west block keeps the storm suppressed offshore better chance for snow NC to PHL/NYC maybe I'm wrong if I am let me know so I can keep learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I am not a pro, however for the mid atlantic a Hudson bay block isn't bad, it's bad for New England, I thought a strong west block keeps the storm suppressed offshore better chance for snow NC to PHL/NYC maybe I'm wrong if I am let me know so I can keep learning The block is north of Hudsons bay this run and the Trapped vortex is stuck over Hudsons Bay. Ideally that vortex should be over Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The block is north of Hudsons bay this run and the Trapped vortex is stuck over Hudsons Bay. Ideally that vortex should be over Newfoundland. I like that set up, looks like the track brings the low off the NC/Delmarva coast I'll take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z EURO shows no snow threats, boring wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Doesn't the EPS for Sunday the 17th look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Shows warm rain day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Doesn't the EPS for Sunday the 17th look good? Has low pressure off the VA coast. 850 temps look ok. About all I can see on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS just does not want to show any snow for us even in LR. Even with the block up north the 17th warms up, relatively, and rains. I just don't get it. This time there is no 50/50 showing up so it screws us. There is always some way something screws us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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