PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is that what happened in early Feb 2010? Luckily, the suppression that year wasn't that bad anyone living below NYC. Now the suppression in March 2015(I think it was 2015 may have been 2014) that is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 EPS took a nice step in general from 0z. Decidedly cooler d11-15 and quite the -AO/NAO. Even "redder" earlier on than 0z. lol D7 thing doesn't show up at all. D10-12 has weak support. The only odd thing I saw on the run was a stronger ridge signal into SoCal late in the run. Nice trough axis in general though. We survive another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Luckily, the suppression that year wasn't that bad anyone living below NYC. Now the suppression in March 2015(I think it was 2015 may have been 2014) that is a different story. March 2014 was pretty miserable north of the Mason Dixon line.... but it was a great month for much of this forum, especially the DC crowd. My understanding is that the PV itself bore down directly on this area and caused two good storms to be suppressed.... but that winter had little if any blocking in the NAO/AO realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 EPS took a nice step in general from 0z. Decidedly cooler d11-15 and quite the -AO/NAO. Even "redder" earlier on than 0z. lol D7 thing doesn't show up at all. D10-12 has weak support. The only odd thing I saw on the run was a stronger ridge signal into SoCal late in the run. Nice trough axis in general though. We survive another day. EPS360.JPG NAO looks great, but is the lack of low heights near NF or Nova Scotia anything to be concerned about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Just memorize this map. It's not just the blocking placement we look for. The low height anomaly (large blue/purple area) east of Nova Scotia is equally important. That's also blocks flow and keeps the storm track up the east coast. The low height anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska is also very important. You don't want that invading western Canada. A -NAO is only a piece of the puzzle and we can get storms many different ways even without one. However, the big storms require all the pieces or a good solid dose of luck. There is no better representation for what to look for for big mid atlantic east coast storm than this plot right here: perfecto.JPG That block was crazy. We can do well with considerably less. The difference between the two biggest of 09/10 for DC/Balt (not including Feb 9-10) against the other top 10s pretty intense: Nor sure it means anything with a small sample (10 storms total, half Nino) but the Nino big events seem to favor more eastward blocking compared to others. Difference Nino vs non-nino: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Would be quite ironic if we go through this entire stretch of "good to great pattern" without any measurable snow. Meanwhile, we bootlegged our way to above normal snowfall totals in '13 and '14 with much, much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 NAO looks great, but is the lack of low heights near NF or Nova Scotia anything to be concerned about? Considering I was just becoming seriously concerned about trough west/ridge east I would marry that map if I was single. D10-15 850's are below normal throughout as well. 12z has been kind. Even though we can't buy a half inch of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Don't like the signal for the 18th? It's weird again. The MSLP + low placement map shows a killer cluster of lows. You would look at that and think "it gon snowx". But then you look at the members and are like "it gon rayne" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Would be quite ironic if we go through this entire stretch of "good to great pattern" without any measurable snow. Meanwhile, we bootlegged our way to above normal snowfall totals in '13 and '14 with much, much less. Sometimes we have those winters where it just wants to snow no matter what. I still think the mid Atlantic and NE see a solid second half. The blocking is very robust on the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's weird again. The MSLP + low placement map shows a killer cluster of lows. You would look at that and think "it gon snowx". But then you look at the members and are like "it gon rayne" Feels like maybe this cold shot and the next should help our chances of snow - and the models "seeing" snow, maybe. Last three days are the first time this year we've had legit cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 New Bernie Rayno Video Bernie Rayno: 1 hour ago Nasty weekend storm Midwest and northeast. Colder next week with threat of snow..UPDATE http://bit.ly/1ONo3OI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Would be quite ironic if we go through this entire stretch of "good to great pattern" without any measurable snow. Meanwhile, we bootlegged our way to above normal snowfall totals in '13 and '14 with much, much less. we had plenty of cold air the last 2 years. i'm in the group of people who thinks getting cold here (like, snow cold) is more difficult than moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Quite a few great winters that had mod or strong ninos and strong -AO/NAO combination. Seems the nino winters that sucked were the ones where there wasn't any real -AO/NAO. So this is a fantastic sign in my humble opinion. I don't believe we've ever experienced a winter with a very strong nino in combination with a very negative -AO/NAO though, so we are really breaking ground in that regard. It will be the battle of the titans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 we had plenty of cold air the last 2 years. i'm in the group of people who thinks getting cold here (like, snow cold) is more difficult than moisture. This year for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 we had plenty of cold air the last 2 years. i'm in the group of people who thinks getting cold here (like, snow cold) is more difficult than moisture. If we do enter a period of sustained blocking (and it's looking more likely every day) and avoid the Pac from destroying everything (looking more likely so far today after a brief scare) then you would have to think it's just going to happen by default this month. How, when, and where will be figured out when something is in a reasonable time frame and not fantasy. Right now d7-15 seems like a period where at least "it can snow" at some point. Could easily last much longer with ups and downs along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If we do enter a period of sustained blocking (and it's looking more likely every day) and avoid the Pac from destroying everything (looking more likely so far today after a brief scare) then you would have to think it's just going to happen by default this month. How, when, and where will be figured out when something is in a reasonable time frame and not fantasy. Right now d7-15 seems like a period where at least "it can snow" at some point. Could easily last much longer with ups and downs along the way. and i definitely think the "it can snow" is harder to get here, so that's a real good sign. i don't remember too many cold winters (or cold during our wheelhouse) where we don't do at least "ok" in the snow department. the times we don't do ok seem to be when we're too warm (obviously) or we're stuck in that warm/wet, cold/dry pattern (which is kinda how things are so far, but luckily we have 2 months to reshuffle the deck), and like others have said, it seems like we usually need the pattern to stabilize a bit before we start tallying snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Pattern thread is up and running! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 @ 126 hours the GFS shortwave looks weaker than 12z version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 As the Chill man noted yesterday. The D+11 cpc superensemble analogs really are weighted heavily towards 1998 and 1983. 6 of the 10 come from those two years and 4 come from 1998. Not sure it means much except that the pattern is evolving towards one similar to the strong nino years. If so, cold air might be hard to hold in. Agree but at least Feb 11th 1983 was a fun 24hr ride!! Chill_analogues.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Last 4 runs of the GFS. vort is getting stronger and stronger per run. the vort just needs to be faster and its game on. 00z had no vort at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 we had plenty of cold air the last 2 years. i'm in the group of people who thinks getting cold here (like, snow cold) is more difficult than moisture. Disagree 100%. Even in a winter with a mega torch like Dec was, when it's over we will have had plenty of days that are cold enough. Get the precip....get that stj raging if you want snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS showing what I believe to be a pretty sick West Based NAO block... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Last 4 runs of the GFS. vort is getting stronger and stronger per run. the vort just needs to be faster and its game on. 00z had no vort at all. Look how the heights north of the Great Lakes keeps changing. This thing will probably end up in Chicago before it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Look how the heights north of the Great Lakes keeps changing. This thing will probably end up in Chicago before it's over. Yeah its crazy how the models have no clue whats going on in Canada this year. all over the place. but the vort is still there just need some digging and the vort to be faster. GFS has changed again after the 13th. speeding energy up that was left in the pac NW previous runs now into the SE . looks like 2 pieces of energy lined up at 225 that were not there before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's weird again. The MSLP + low placement map shows a killer cluster of lows. You would look at that and think "it gon snowx". But then you look at the members and are like "it gon rayne" Yeah thats what concerns me. None of them dare mix the precip with cold temps. But there are a lot of snowstorms that didn't show up on any ensemble or model until 72hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 PDO spiking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 You mean this? GFS showing what I believe to be a pretty sick West Based NAO block... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 PDO spiking I can never keep track on this one Matt. Is this good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I can never keep track on this one Matt. Is this good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Btw... nice place to take a look at the teles ---->http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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