BTRWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 GFS ens members would suggest the period starting in about a week would be interesting. Don't close that December thread just yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's really hard to say. This flip kinda just jumped on us. Definitely quicker than anyone expected. The +pna is pretty normal for Nino's so that isn't that surprising. The -epo is so I would think that would be more of a transient feature but wearing weenie glasses you can envision the -epo/+pna giving us at least a chance or 2 at something and buy some time to let the ao/nao continue to improve. Tonight's weeklies could give some insight. The 0z euro ens looked pretty good so rolling that forward another 2 weeks could look nice. The current pattern advertised d10-15 is similar to the end of week 3 from the last weeklies but some notable differences with a more favorable trough axis and not hanging heights back to the west nearly as much. Hoping we can get a period with a sustained +PNA, and with at least some help from the EPO at times. The Scandinavian ridge has had some persistence in the guidance, and the weenie in me sees positive height anomalies building westward towards Greenland going forward. Be nice to time a legit west-based block, even if it is short lived, to go along with an improving Pacific for 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Euro getting more bullish with the trip to 8. I know Wes posted about the MJO not having as much significance during Nino's but it's still nice to see. Better than high amplitude in a warm phase. I hot linked the image so it can update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Don't close that December thread just yet! Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I remain thoroughly unconvinced that any change in the next few weeks will be all that great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I remain thoroughly unconvinced that any change in the next few weeks will be all that great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I remain thoroughly unconvinced that any change in the next few weeks will be all that great for us. FWIW, 12z gfs agrees with you. Three days of "pattern change" being slightly below normal temps and dry. Then the cold air runs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I don't think anything inside of 2 weeks will be great either. Outside of some sort of lucky timed event, it would go against logic and history to think we just flip from a record warmth pattern right into a good snow setup. Just have to wait it out. From the way it looks now, there is virtually no chance at anything until after the 3rd of Jan or so. That's a long ways out as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 All guidance looks pretty similar to this as far as temps go. It's a long trip back to normal. All we can do is hope the +pna hangs for a couple weeks. My hunch is that it does. When I lived out west, good storm cycles and/or stormy months almost always had a 1-2 week period of predominantly blue bird skies before going back to stormy. I can see the west ridging for a couple weeks on the means. Makes sense in my brain at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 FWIW, 12z gfs agrees with you. Three days of "pattern change" being slightly below normal temps and dry. Then the cold air runs away. The GFS right now beyond 5 days is risky business. It's having a hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The 12z GEFS is on board with some type of "pattern change" (mostly to normal). The SE through appears at the 500mb levels, which is a great sign in terms of following certain analogs (1983) over others (1998). It's still really far out even for the ensembles. It could easily be a 3-4 day transient switch that flips back to fire hose. Not seeing that just yet on the ensembles. By Christmas, we should have a fair assessment how real any pattern "shift" is. Normal temperatures are not necessarily a bad sign for us in terms of snow the first 2 weeks of January with a massive high pressure signal near Hudson Bay. Storms that undercut us during a "normal" airmass in early-mid January can be big producers. We are so used to looking at 850mb anomaly maps in mid Feb-early March from the last 4 years, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Regardless of the medium/long range in our back yards, every time I look at the GEFS the last couple days the heights in the AO/NAO domain space keep getting higher. EPS moved in the same direction last night but not nearly as aggressive as the GEFS. 12z run upped the ante again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The GFS right now beyond 5 days is risky business. It's having a hard time. I wouldn't worry too much about the op except perhaps it shows how we can have a cool short intermixed with warmer storms which would fit strong Nino climo. In these convos I think we tend to talk to ourselves more than others sometimes. I haven't seen anyone suggest a December pattern is likely in Jan. But I'd probably call these pattern shifts more than a wholesale pattern change. It looks rather strong Nino January to me ahead which would suggest it won't be easy going around here and that no long-term favorable PNA/EPO is likely. Then again I think the AO and NAO matter more anyway.. so let's just try to get those neutral or negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The -AO in Bob's map has me way more interested than a +PNA. As Ian's analogs showed, snowy January Nino winters still had a -PNA in the means at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I wouldn't worry about the long range GFS andinstead would concentrate on the pattern shown on the ensemble mean which definitely is an improvement during the 1st week f January. The ridge in the west should deliver some cooler than normal temps though I'm still not sure about the sticking power. The GEFS shows the AO goign negative but with heights above normal near the Maritimes which usually means the cold temps alternate with temps a bit above normal but not the torching above that we've seen so the temps might average otu pretty close to normal. We need to see some southern stream energy showing up which might happen as we get closer to that time period through that often shows up later in January in Nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 12z individ GFS ensemble members P001 and P004 and P006 suggest maybe a quick shot of sleet/freezing rain at hr 180 across parts of the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Even though it's ten days out, there seems to still be a signal for something to track on 01/01/16 with that stalled out front and cold air pretty close. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Even though it's ten days out, there seems to still be a signal for something to track on 01/01/16 with that stalled out front and cold air pretty close. Maybe. A couple of members are intriguing enough during that time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 A couple of members are intriguing enough during that time period P016 especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The ensemble members are all over the place from hrs 252-312 regarding the wave along the front... some even have Miller A-ish development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I wouldn't worry about the long range GFS andinstead would concentrate on the pattern shown on the ensemble mean which definitely is an improvement during the 1st week f January. The ridge in the west should deliver some cooler than normal temps though I'm still not sure about the sticking power. The GEFS shows the AO goign negative but with heights above normal near the Maritimes which usually means the cold temps alternate with temps a bit above normal but not the torching above that we've seen so the temps might average otu pretty close to normal. We need to see some southern stream energy showing up which might happen as we get closer to that time period through that often shows up later in January in Nino years. I'm looking forward to your next outlook. Hopefully guidance will continue to converge on a general pattern that isn't a guaranteed shutout and also doesn't keep pushing it forward in time. Good point about the + height anomaly over the maritimes. Even through we may get a period of at least neutral ao/nao, the general h5 look as advertised is not one that would lock in persistent cold. It would still be progressive flow but at least amplified and not persistent warm. I'm pretty surprised at how over the last couple days models have been showing a fairly rapid transition away from the big blue ball pv in the troposphere. It's been rock solid bad around the pole for nearly 6 weeks straight and all of a sudden ens guidance is seeing that changing fairly quickly. It's not strat related from what I can tell. But I profess no skill at understanding the strat and how it can affect the atmosphere below it. Hopefully Matt's wish for a burning orange blob over the davis straight happens by mid month..haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I'm looking forward to your next outlook. Hopefully guidance will continue to converge on a general pattern that isn't a guaranteed shutout and also doesn't keep pushing it forward in time. Good point about the + height anomaly over the maritimes. Even through we may get a period of at least neutral ao/nao, the general h5 look as advertised is not one that would lock in persistent cold. It would still be progressive flow but at least amplified and not persistent warm. I'm pretty surprised at how over the last couple days models have been showing a fairly rapid transition away from the big blue ball pv in the troposphere. It's been rock solid bad around the pole for nearly 6 weeks straight and all of a sudden ens guidance is seeing that changing fairly quickly. It's not strat related from what I can tell. But I profess no skill at understanding the strat and how it can affect the atmosphere below it. Hopefully Matt's wish for a burning orange blob over the davis straight happens by mid month..haha just a wag, but I wonder if it's related to the tropical forcing Bob over the last few days, this map has changed quite a bit and now has decent forcing in a very ideal location for us http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Day 10 (ofc) looks interesting on the 12z EURO... yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Verbatim 850s are a bit warm. I just want to see the EPS hold serve on a hemispheric reshuffle. It's nice to have more confidence in a more decent pattern, However transient, at the start of the new year. Well yes... but there looks to be a SLP in AL as the H in the Midwest moves in at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I'm encouraged by how close the 4 panel GFS and Euro seem to match up this far out in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 A couple of members are intriguing enough during that time period That should answer your previous question. eta: 5-day forecast expectations during this pattern have been atrocious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Not much change to Euro ens. Think it's still highlighting that ~Jan 5-10 window tho it only runs to the 5th. Signs of PNA ridge shifting east.. seems to help the AO go negative or neutral at least for a time. Nino is going to feed that GOA low IMO so I just don't see how we can expect heights to stay high in that general region unless there's a major PV breakdown or something. That doesn't seem to be the case here. And although PNA helped last two winters not sure that's what we want long-term anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Not much change to Euro ens. Think it's still highlighting that ~Jan 5-10 window tho it only runs to the 5th. Signs of PNA ridge shifting east.. seems to help the AO go negative or neutral at least for a time. Nino is going to feed that GOA low IMO so I just don't see how we can expect heights to stay high in that general region unless there's a major PV breakdown or something. That doesn't seem to be the case here. And although PNA helped last two winters not sure that's what we want long-term anyway. Yeah. If anything the Euro ENS strengthened the signal of the colder air starting around January 2nd. It really hasn't budged the past 5 runs or so in terms of timing. Either way, it's an upper level look we haven't seen in at least 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yeah. If anything the Euro ENS strengthened the signal of the colder air starting around January 2nd. It really hasn't budged the past 5 runs or so in terms of timing. Either way, it's an upper level look we haven't seen in at least 2 months. Anomalies are a bit higher it seems out west so perhaps that helps. I guess it's possible we're in play by the start of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Weeklies should hit SV soon. Get the refresh button ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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