mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 As the Chill man noted yesterday. The D+11 cpc superensemble analogs really are weighted heavily towards 1998 and 1983. 6 of the 10 come from those two years and 4 come from 1998. Not sure it means much except that the pattern is evolving towards one similar to the strong nino years. If so, cold air might be hard to hold in. Chill_analogues.png 02/03/1978 doesn't send a thrill up your leg just a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 02/03/1978 doesn't send a thrill up your leg just a little? DCA got 6" and IAD 1", so probably not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wonder what DC actually got if DCA reported 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Damn the 240hr 12z euro 500mb setup is HAWT. Too bad it's ten days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 DCA got 6" and IAD 1", so probably not lolKDOV with 16, I was 14 at the time. First blizzard of my memory. Followed by 25 a year later. It was very close for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 DCA got 6" and IAD 1", so probably not lol It was even worse than that-- DCA got 2.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It was even worse than that-- DCA got 2.2" Odd season that year! The records I'm looking at show dca with 10" in Jan, 3" in Feb, and 8" more in Mar. Before my time, but interesting to say the least. http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Day 10 has potential for sure. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=409 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2016010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=313 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=697 Day 10 always has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Day 10 always has potential we cant get out of the 10-16 day zone. Its like a girl your chasing saying i just want to be friends and your like a brother to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 13th isn't ten days away. Just saying.. They are talking about the time period after next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 thats probably the best looking -NAO ive seen in years if it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 KDOV with 16, I was 14 at the time. First blizzard of my memory. Followed by 25 a year later. It was very close for you guys. Sharp cutoff across Maryland with that one. Looking at COOP stations across Carroll County the back edge ran right through with southwestern parts of the county getting around 4" and northeast parts up to 16". Crazy difference over just 20 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 KDOV with 16, I was 14 at the time. First blizzard of my memory. Followed by 25 a year later. It was very close for you guys. I was living in Glen Burnie, south of BWI, and we got 9", so I was happy with it. I do recall Annapolis getting 12", and that pi$$ed me off of course. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Day 10 has potential for sure. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=409 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2016010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=313 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=697 The day 10 Euro has the look that the euro EPS was showing a couple of days ago. It's a good look with the upper low near Nova scotia, the southern stream vort and the big positive anomaly/block over Greenland. Of course it'sa day 10 forecast so the palyers could be different tomorrow. It will be interesting to see whether the Euro eps has the same look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'd start to heavily question any major breakdown of the block if reaches strength shown. Going to be warm periods because Nino but rolling into Feb a block can be favored given where we are headed and where we have been before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I know... Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be an east based -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 One issue I have with the 156-168hr event on the 12z GFS is that if the wave becomes stronger or if there is more phasing in from that lobe that is diving down from Canada then it will be tough to lock in the cold air. This run worked out because the wave was strong enough to form the storm, but not too strong as in to build ridging ahead of it. There really is no 50/50, as the low moves up the coast there is a HP in the Atlantic which is not a good spot for Mid-Atlantic snowstorms. It isn't impossible, and a lot can change with the overall look in 6-7 days, but I am more enthralled with the day 16-18th potential. Today's 12z EURO run shows one of the best Atlantic looks we've seen yet. 50/50? -- Check +PNA? -- Check -NAO? -- Check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be an east based -NAO? http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/10/east-based-v-west-based-negative-nao.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'd start to heavily question any major breakdown of the block if reaches strength shown. Going to be warm periods because Nino but rolling into Feb a block can be favored given where we are headed and where we have been before. Totally agree. We've seen it work both ways many times in the past. Place an expansive + or - height anomaly across the AO/NAO domain space and it usually means it's there for a while. There are exceptions of course but right now all guidance had trended so strong with the height anomalies it starts getting a lot easier to believe that it's here for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be an east based -NAO? I think its more central based, east based is more over Iceland or the UK, its a bit too far east though to be optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be an east based -NAO?It's a little more east based then west, but probably somewhat in the middle overall. It's not a bootleg -nao for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think its more central based, east based is more over Iceland or the UK, its a bit too far east though to be optimal. How far west would you want the higher heights to be, to be optimal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 How far west would you want the higher heights to be, to be optimal? Just memorize this map. It's not just the blocking placement we look for. The low height anomaly (large blue/purple area) east of Nova Scotia is equally important. That's also blocks flow and keeps the storm track up the east coast. The low height anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska is also very important. You don't want that invading western Canada. A -NAO is only a piece of the puzzle and we can get storms many different ways even without one. However, the big storms require all the pieces or a good solid dose of luck. There is no better representation for what to look for for big mid atlantic east coast storm than this plot right here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 we cant get out of the 10-16 day zone. Its like a girl your chasing saying i just want to be friends and your like a brother to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Sharp cutoff across Maryland with that one. Looking at COOP stations across Carroll County the back edge ran right through with southwestern parts of the county getting around 4" and northeast parts up to 16". Crazy difference over just 20 miles or so. The snow overnight and the morning was just moderate and it stopped but then the storm stalled and it built back to the west but not far enough for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 How far west would you want the higher heights to be, to be optimal? In general in the MA you have no issues with it being very far west. In NYC or New England you don't want an extremely west based NAO because it usually means suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow! to my untrained eye, these teles look fairly good besides the EPO but even the EPO stays mostly neutral to slightly positive. This also includes the AO which is forecasted to continue to tank(not shown here) Edit: Here is the link ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png if the image for some reason doesn't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 In general in the MA you have no issues with it being very far west. In NYC or New England you don't want an extremely west based NAO because it usually means suppression. Is that what happened in early Feb 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is that what happened in early Feb 2010? Yes and no from what I remember...I want to say it was pretty far west but not far enough to really suppress things...unfortunately a little vort lobe rotated around the PV right in the 21z-06Z window right as the storm was coming up the coast..had that vort lobe been 12 hours later the system probably comes 50-75 miles more north and NYC is hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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