Ravens94 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 not early on/when we need it to be after the frontal passage Sunday to be specific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 not early on Kinda stuck in the warm-rain, cold-dry funk. It does get cold again, and that is one ingredient for getting snow. Where is the southern stream? Maybe we can get a clipper to dig...Not very Nino-ish tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Gefs apologized for making us want to punch it in the face and shifted closer to the eps. Not a great look by the end but a heck of a lot better than the last 4 runs. Pretty stout + height anomaly showing up from Hudson bay to Greenland. Super nino style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hey Bob, check out this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I don't wanna put words into anyone's mouth, but the 15-18th period was the time period Wes was interested in I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 6z GFS has that period as a GLL that seems to transfer to the coast off Boston... Plenty of time for that to come south, I guess... All in all a rather ugly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 AO continues trending further and further negative, have not seen this forecasted drop to those levels in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 AO continues trending further and further negative, have not seen this forecasted drop to those levels in a long time I have to believe that this will be of some benefit down the road and prevent a repeat torch. I may eat those words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hey Bob, check out this look. yes!.png Since Bob apparently ain't speaking to you anymore (j/k),the problem I see remains that the number after "t+" remains is 240. Other than that, I'd say it looks good but with more a risk of suppression than usual. But that's just off 1 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I don't wanna put words into anyone's mouth, but the 15-18th period was the time period Wes was interested in I believe. That looks good but if you dig into the EPS they really don't support it turning into anything. They, like the GFS, keep the northern stream dominant and bring clippers north of us while suppressing the STJ well to our south. Mean snowfall on last nights EPS was down under 1" for DCA. Its been moving in the wrong direction for that threat window for several days now. Could come around, the pattern is certainly not hostile and I could easily see something come from it but we need the northern stream to get the @#*! out of the way. AO continues trending further and further negative, have not seen this forecasted drop to those levels in a long time I have to believe that this will be of some benefit down the road and prevent a repeat torch. I may eat those words While I am not all that confident we score in the Jan 15-20 window everyone is currently looking at, this gives me reason to believe we will have chances further down the line and maybe not that much further. If we look at some of the past stronger ninos where we did get snow later in the season the snow usually followed the AO tanking by a few weeks. It wasn't an immediate response. There was a transition period where it got colder but the snow followed later. 66 seemed to be the fastest response where the AO crashed early Jan and the snowy period hit Jan 20-Feb2. 58 the crash was mid january and the snow didn't hit until mid feb. (yes I know there was one big storm in Dec that year) We are all getting antsy but I keep telling myself to be patient that there is some reason to think this is progressing towards something positive. Its why I am excited about the look on the 15 day GGEM ens and EPS vs the GEFS. Its not that they look awesome its that they are very close to a good pattern and I could easily see us slide into a good snowstorm setup from there. Since Bob apparently ain't speaking to you anymore (j/k),the problem I see remains that the number after "t+" remains is 240. Other than that, I'd say it looks good but with more a risk of suppression than usual. But that's just off 1 map. I think the models are trying to rush the progression of the pattern. First they rushed the breakdown of the northeast ridge in Dec. Then they rushed the trough pushing east in early January. Now perhaps they are rushing the start of a more active southern storm track. Have to hope that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The Accuweather guys think it is about to get cold! http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/polar-vortex-to-usher-widespre/54599939 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 At 126 there is much more moisture over TX then PR. 500mb much stronger also. maybe a coastal forming as it continues east? incoming trough just has to grab it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The Accuweather guys think it is about to get cold! http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/polar-vortex-to-usher-widespre/54599939 Now you've done it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hey it looks like the GFS almost wants to give us a coastal around 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 There's some modeled snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS is definitely making some changes! And the trend map says this can get better the energy coming into Cali is getting faster and stronger run after run now. tons of potential with cold air in place. this should have happened runs ago. its been killing the energy going over cali but not anymore.http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_12.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 There's some modeled snow! Kinda reminds me of last year with the PV drops at range. They are hot and heavy out in time and then verify less beastly more often than not. You could see early in the run that the PV wasn't going to be a storm sledge hammer so the vort at the base has a chance to amplify and turn the corner. Could be a blip (and probably is) but a good example of what to look for as we move through medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS is trying something new at 160 hours or so. Previously unmodeled s/w is trying to spin up a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS has been working on this for about 3 runs now. can only get better i would presume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS is trying something new at 160 hours or so. Previously unmodeled s/w is trying to spin up a coastal The SW has been there but just getting a sledge to the head until this run. Here's the last 3 runs at the same point in time. You can see the PV not as strong on consecutive runs and the vort on 12z turns the corner. I have plenty of doubt but this is something we've seen before. It's how threats emerge as we close in on what originally looked like a cold dry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The SW has been there but just getting a sledge to the head until this run. Here's the last 3 runs at the same point in time. You can see the PV not as strong on consecutive runs and the vort on 12z turns the corner. I have plenty of doubt but this is something we've seen before. It's how threats emerge as we close in on what originally looked like a cold dry period. 0zvort.JPG 6z vort.JPG 12zvort.JPG In most past experiences, the s/w usually gets better defined as we progress. Now watch 18z will crush that b**ch hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That looks good but if you dig into the EPS they really don't support it turning into anything. They, like the GFS, keep the northern stream dominant and bring clippers north of us while suppressing the STJ well to our south. Mean snowfall on last nights EPS was down under 1" for DCA. Its been moving in the wrong direction for that threat window for several days now. Could come around, the pattern is certainly not hostile and I could easily see something come from it but we need the northern stream to get the @#*! out of the way. I thought the EPS showed about the same support as the GEFS for a coastal around the 17th-18th. EPS mean preip for the 3 day period centered around the 17th is .4+/-. But virtually no snow. Looks like temp problems. GEFS members agree. The coastal storms are mostly rain. Obviously it's so far out there it doesn't matter but I think the idea during the period is as good as we thought the last few days as far as a coastal storm goes. Ptype is a whole nuther issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The new gfs unicorn Storm reminds me of the dec 2011 coastal that was forecast to hit but skirted a bit too far east for us. Obviously too far out to even consider exact locations of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I was one of the last to jump ship and I'll be one of the last to hop back on. This is the GFS op at a range I believe it tends to do poorly. I have no doubt that the pattern should score something, though I'm not counting on it being that soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 For reference. Here's what the euro showed last night. Very amplified with not chance for a vort to do anything except get hit on the head and die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'm not a believer in this exact op run but this is the period we've all been focusing on. At least we have a little more hope the pattern may produce something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 For reference. Here's what the euro showed last night. Very amplified with not chance for a vort to do anything except get hit on the head and die. yourow.JPG Perfect explanation Bob. You should write a met primer for elementary school. The kids would love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'm not a believer in this exact op run but this is the period we've all been focusing on. At least we have a little more hope the pattern may produce something. I don't think anybody should believe anything beyond 72-96 hours when analyzing a storm threat and thinking in absolutes and even then... The next thing we want to see is if the 12z gefs shows any support to the idea and if the euro op backs off with the pv drop from 0z. Euro op doesn't need to show anything irt to a storm. Just a move towards an opportunity and I'll stay interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I don't think anybody should believe anything beyond 72-96 hours when analyzing a storm threat and thinking in absolutes and even then... The next thing we want to see is if the 12z gefs shows any support to the idea and if the euro op backs off with the pv drop from 0z. Euro op doesn't need to show anything irt to a storm. Just a move towards an opportunity and I'll stay interested. There were 2 or 3 of the 6z members that showed this type of scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 For reference. Here's what the euro showed last night. Very amplified with not chance for a vort to do anything except get hit on the head and die. yourow.JPG Help me out a little bit, Bob, please. Is it the strength of the vortex or its placement that keeps the vort from turning the corner? From my very-limited knowledge, all I can see is that the trof axis is way to positively tilted for something to turn the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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