mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Where is our raging stj?Stuck in California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Also can someone interpret this map for me and what the higher heights over Greenland and Alaska mean? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Stuck in California. This was always just the beginning. Whatever people say about the weeklies it and even the CFS seem to have done a pretty good job of highlighting when we'd start seeing more of a classic stj vs the more subtle influences leading in. Think bigger forecast problems have been over the high latitudes. Nothing was showing the quick development of a strong and lasting -- tho not necessarily classic -- blocking pattern. Rather than try to explain something I only partially understand, I'll paste what HM posted on Twitter in convo.. read from bottom up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That's the method I tried to stick with when I was in a bar looking to meet women. It didn't work for me then and I don't think it will work for you now. Lol My method was "go ugly early". That won't work with ensembles either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Also can someone interpret this map for me and what the higher heights over Greenland and Alaska mean? Thanks in advance! I used to think that meant good pattern and snow. In this bizzarro winter where nothing seems right I am not sure if that applies. Better than low heights up there for sure but other than that it's not a guaranteed winning pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 This was always just the beginning. Whatever people say about the weeklies it and even the CFS seem to have done a pretty good job of highlighting when we'd start seeing more of a classic stj vs the more subtle influences leading in. Think bigger forecast problems have been over the high latitudes. Nothing was showing the quick development of a strong and lasting blocking pattern. Rather than try to explain something I only partially understand, I'll paste what HM posted on Twitter in convo.. read from bottom up. I don't see any HM there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 My method was "go ugly early". That won't work with ensembles either.And don't forget, if a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I don't see any HM there.That's his real name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Anthony Masiello=Henry??HM Ian is referring to is not Henry Margusity of Accuwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The EPS doesn't look that great to me by the end either, but it's not quite what we just saw... In some ways the GEFS solution makes more sense too, at least out west and with the STJ. Weeklies did shift the precip anomlies north out there with time though as well. It's definitely a lot trickier of a pattern.. that's a plus I guess? By this time in Dec it was already pretty clear we were going to run at records. Something coming in late Jan (if it does) that isn't favorable you just hope it doesn't last long as that could snag a good chunk of our prime climo for big events.To me it's not that the eps at day 15 is great, it's ok and I could see how a stj system could break through under the ridging and if times right we have a shot. The bigger thing to me is that where the eps leaves us around jan 20 I can see how we could easily transition into a favorable storm pattern from there. The gefs on the other hand has the bridges lined with weenies at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I used to think that meant good pattern and snow. In this bizzarro winter where nothing seems right I am not sure if that applies. Better than low heights up there for sure but other than that it's not a guaranteed winning pattern. It's OK. That panel mostly just shows it being cold though. Trough axis passing offshore, '-NAO' is pretty east based and the 50/50 signature is also well displaced. A bit deeper (Jan 16 12z) it has a better look I think: -NAO block is still rather east based.. the configuration is kind of funky overall compared to our preferred -NAO look. There's that ridge axis across across the Rockies though. In the short term the increased stj activity seems to be pumping up the GOA low/s too. Left exit region. Tricky tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I don't think the pattern of blocking breaks down like the gefs suggest. I ask myself "why would it when we're going into a climo favored blocking period? " Maybe some relaxation, but that's it. Otoh, if we haven't seen some accumulating snow by the 25th, we may just want a breakdown in hopes of a better pattern after a reshuffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 HM Ian is referring to is not Henry Margusity of Accuwx. eww no, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 HM Ian is referring to is not Henry Margusity of Accuwx. People make that mistake less often now but 5-10 years ago it seemed people would always be confusing which one was which Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's OK. That panel mostly just shows it being cold though. Trough axis passing offshore, '-NAO' is pretty east based and the 50/50 signature is also well displaced. A bit deeper (Jan 16 12z) it has a better look I think: -NAO block is still rather east based.. the configuration is kind of funky overall compared to our preferred -NAO look. There's that ridge axis across across the Rockies though. In the short term the increased stj activity seems to be pumping up the GOA low/s too. Left exit region. Tricky tricky. One thing that has been missing with this colder pattern that we had the prior two winters is a trough off Japan. I've noticed in most of the decent warm enso analogs posted this season they don't really show a trough off Japan either, so I'm not too concerned...yet. But I would like to see what would happen if we could get one there like that map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 One thing to keep in mind is we look at a lot of analog 500mb chunks. In reality these pieces are typically coming and going during quality events. Sure it opens the door for less too which we need for totals and sanity. But seeing a 6 hr snapshot that matches a monthly map doesn't necessarily mean much. Bob and others have repeatedly reminded that it's often at front or tail end of the high latitude blocking. In many storms you can watch it transit a sizable distance as the event is forming/ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 OT but is that a tropical low developing north of Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 OT but is that a tropical low developing north of Cuba? No it's frontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 OT but is that a tropical low developing north of Cuba?Nah, just another one of our December rainstorms that didn't get the memo in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I don't think the pattern of blocking breaks down like the gefs suggest. I ask myself "why would it when we're going into a climo favored blocking period? " Maybe some relaxation, but that's it. Otoh, if we haven't seen some accumulating snow by the 25th, we may just want a breakdown in hopes of a better pattern after a reshuffling.If it gets as strong as suggested it may end up rather stable. Whatever it is. Those are pretty strong dipoles at range on eps. The breakdown actually seems to coincide with a slight weakening of the STJ at range. Given the models pretty much all flubbed the high latitudes going into this period not sure they mean a ton at hr 360. Not sold the config we see is the one we want tho. But it can and probably will shift around if it becomes a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 What "HM" is Ian referring to?He posts here as HM. But you might as well know him by his Twitter handle if you don't know that. He's one of the handful of long rangers to try to keep up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 People make that mistake less often now but 5-10 years ago it seemed people would always be confusing which one was which What mistake? I've seen Accuwx HM referenced here on multiple occasions. Don't forget that he's one of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If it gets as strong as suggested it may end up rather stable. Whatever it is. Those are pretty strong dipoles at range on eps. The breakdown actually seems to coincide with a slight weakening of the STJ at range. Given the models pretty much all flubbed the high latitudes going into this period not sure they mean a ton at hr 360. Not sold the config we see is the one we want tho. But it can and probably will shift around if it becomes a thing.I don't want to say this winter has no analogs because that can probably be said about many winters. But I do think when it's over and we've had a chance to pick it apart most will be saying "I see how it got there, but have no idea how it did it nor would I have ever guessed it would." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Couple of cool animations highlighting the blocking and Kara high/block. 200mb on top and 500mb on bottom. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Couple of cool animations highlighting the blocking and Kara high/block. 200mb on top and 500mb on bottom. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml That Siberia to Pacific NW heights connection alluded to earlier looks close to me near the last frames. What do you all think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That Siberia to Pacific NW heights connection alluded to earlier looks close to me near the last frames. What do you all think?Close, but I don't know if it makes it. Considering how poorly it was modeled, I guess it's possible over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS looks ice cold this run. coldest in the past 4 runs at 850 and 2m through 162 and a nice clipper coming down from canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS looks ice cold this run. coldest in the past 4 runs at 850 and 2m through 162 and a nice clipper coming down from canadaSomebody needs to tell the gfs that this is a Niño and not a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Somebody needs to tell the gfs that this is a Niño and not a Nina. Its Definitely cold this run lol. changed totally at 500mb again. drop that clipper 200 miles south and form that coastal off DE http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_00.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS looks ice cold this run. coldest in the past 4 runs at 850 and 2m through 162 and a nice clipper coming down from canada not early on/when we need it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.