psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm not sure a reverse bust like that is possible anymore. Models have come a long long ways. A 400+ mile bust inside of 48 hours seems highly unlikely. Models can blow qpf/ptype etc at very short range (by short range I mean as the event is underway. lol). But the large synoptic pieces are usually nailed within typical margin of error once you get inside of 48 hours. Even miller B screw jobs which are quite difficult to get right are usually mostly figured out inside of 48 hours nowadays. By me posting this we'll probably see some sort of epic 24 hour bust or reverse bust this winter. haha wish we could go back and input the initial conditions from the old MRF/ETA/NGM 48 hours and 24 hours before and see what the NAM/GFS today would do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 great track on 12z GFS and still rain lol great track of what, a wave on a front trailing a dominant northern stream low up over Canada? We need the northern stream to get out of the way and allow the STJ to become the main player. Bothers me that even in the longer range most runs continue to much up any stj systems with northern stream waves coming across north of us. Perhaps that relaxes as we head into late Jan and Feb and then we can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GFS for Saturday at 102 hours out, and 222 hours out. Forgive me for not getting too wound up over what the GFS shows beyond about 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 wish we could go back and input the initial conditions from the old MRF/ETA/NGM 48 hours and 24 hours before and see what the NAM/GFS today would do with it. Probably could. Most likely the data is stored somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 12z GFS long range puts Northern and central California under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 12Z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 To be fair to the GFS, its 5 day forecast for this morning is amazingly accurate. (12z 12/31) It has struggled in the 5-10 day range forecasts, and I don't look beyond 10. I'm sure that is to be expected of any model, but since we are currently looking within that window, I'd say let's just hang on before we make any declarations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GFS for Saturday at 102 hours out, and 222 hours out. Forgive me for not getting too wound up over what the GFS shows beyond about 72 hours. biggest error is the lack of the high it thought would be there, and the fact that the next system is almost underneath the first now instead of spaced out back in Colorado. Error 1 screws up threat 1, error 2 screws up threat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 CMC isn't a real weather model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GGEM is rain, temps dont crash until after the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I noticed the GEFS has backed off on the warmth coming back in the long range but still shows it later on. What does the end of the Euro Ensemble show?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just a reminder that you can't trust forecast models 2 weeks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GEFS still looking fairly hideous late in the run. That's 4 in a row with a worsening trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I noticed the GEFS has backed off on the warmth coming back in the long range but still shows it later on. What does the end of the Euro Ensemble show?. GEFS is near or above normal from the 15th on. 4 days below normal, 11 days at or above this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Faux -NAO. We should have known it was to good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GEFS is near or above normal from the 15th on. 4 days below normal, 11 days at or above this run. It never really gets us that cold next week either and it keeps the NE AN after tomorrow the entire run, 2m temps. Is it right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It never really gets us that cold next week either and it keeps the NE AN after tomorrow the entire run, 2m temps. Is it right... Yeah I've noticed the next cold shot looks less impressive lately. Actually 850mb temps are warmer than this shot in latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Euro looks good for Jan 10 if 9-10C 850s could support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Euro looks good for Jan 10 if 9-10C 850s could support snow. Oh ya! Time for Weenie eyes to start talking! Seriously! Low to the south but no cold air to speak of! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 the southeast forum is giddy with the same model runs that we are cursing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It is a bit colder/longer than last run late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 the southeast forum is giddy with the same model runs that we are cursing A blend of these don't work? I know this isn't the typical MA HECS pattern you guys expect but someone should be able to see an accumulating snow out of this pattern. Especially for you you guys... Pac low is in a pretty good spot with -EPO/-AO with wsw flow with active STJ, hmmm, maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Euro has lots of energy in the SW at 240.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Euro has lots of energy in the SW at 240.. Euro was close on day 7, just sharpen up the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It is a bit colder/longer than last run late in the run.Yeah, better look overall for days 9 and 10. Not sure what it's worth. Both gfs and euro have a big s/w coming into the Rockies at that time. Got to hold cold air in with some confluence to the north or the Wes storm will be warm and wet. Euro looks better in that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yeah, better look overall for days 9 and 10. Not sure what it's worth. Both gfs and euro have a big s/w coming into the Rockies at that time. Got to hold cold air in with some confluence to the north or the Wes storm will be warm and wet. Euro looks better in that regard It's also breaking down the blocking quicker than before days 8-10 but who knows if that's real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 A blend of these don't work? I know this isn't the typical MA HECS pattern you guys expect but someone should be able to see an accumulating snow out of this pattern. Especially for you you guys... Pac low is in a pretty good spot with -EPO/-AO with wsw flow with active STJ, hmmm, maybe not We are cynical, pattern snobinistas here. I see cold and dry, then warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 We are cynical, pattern snobinistas here. I see cold and dry, then warm and wet. I don't think were being picky, a few days ago all the long range guidance was developing a sweet pattern in the 10-15 day period, great blocking, split flow, active stj, and it was showing this consistently for days. The last few days its been slipping away, the pattern doesnt look awful but every run seems to pick away at some of the ingredients we need. Block breaks down, we lose the PNA/EPO, Ridging develops over the northeast, STJ decides to disappear...its something. The one constant is for the last few days (other then one 18z GFS run) we have not been able to put it all together and get a run that shows a flush hit. I still think we could get something, the pattern is not hostile, but looks less perfect then it did 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What's frustrated is that we can't even get a fantasy storm to show up on consecutive model runs. At least give us a few runs to look at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I dug around the 12z GEFS run and hr 276 stood out to me all the way around. There are enough pieces in place to consider this a pretty good signal at range. There's no 50/50 so the HP will be sliding but it's kinda silly to even think that deeply. The short story is good shortwave/vort placement, decent block, confluence, favorable hp placement, good thermodynamics, and a nice cluster of member SLP placements. A real miller A look to the precip pattern to our southeast. IMO- this is a legit setup but too far out to overthink or get invested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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