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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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I'm not sure a reverse bust like that is possible anymore. Models have come a long long ways. A 400+ mile bust inside of 48 hours seems highly unlikely. Models can blow qpf/ptype etc at very short range (by short range I mean as the event is underway. lol). But the large synoptic pieces are usually nailed within typical margin of error once you get inside of 48 hours. Even miller B screw jobs which are quite difficult to get right are usually mostly figured out inside of 48 hours nowadays.

 

By me posting this we'll probably see some sort of epic 24 hour bust or reverse bust this winter. haha 

wish we could go back and input the initial conditions from the old MRF/ETA/NGM 48 hours and 24 hours before and see what the NAM/GFS today would do with it. 

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great track on 12z GFS and still rain lol

great track of what, a wave on a front trailing a dominant northern stream low up over Canada?  We need the northern stream to get out of the way and allow the STJ to become the main player.  Bothers me that even in the longer range most runs continue to much up any stj systems with northern stream waves coming across north of us.  Perhaps that relaxes as we head into late Jan and Feb and then we can score. 

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To be fair to the GFS, its 5 day forecast for this morning is amazingly accurate. (12z 12/31)

 

It has struggled in the 5-10 day range forecasts, and I don't look beyond 10.  I'm sure that is to be expected of any model, but since we are currently looking within that window, I'd say let's just hang on before we make any declarations.

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GFS for Saturday at 102 hours out, and 222 hours out.

 

Forgive me for not getting too wound up over what the GFS shows beyond about  72 hours.

 

 

biggest error is the lack of the high it thought would be there, and the fact that the next system is almost underneath the first now instead of spaced out back in Colorado.  Error 1 screws up threat 1, error 2 screws up threat 2.

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I noticed the GEFS has backed off on the warmth coming back in the long range but still shows it later on. What does the end of the Euro Ensemble show?.

GEFS is near or above normal from the 15th on. 4 days below normal, 11 days at or above this run. 

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It never really gets us that cold next week either and it keeps the NE AN after tomorrow the entire run, 2m temps. Is it right...

Yeah I've noticed the next cold shot looks less impressive lately. Actually 850mb temps are warmer than this shot in latest runs. 

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the southeast forum is giddy with the same model runs that we are cursing

A blend of these don't work?  I know this isn't the typical MA HECS pattern you guys expect but someone should be able to see an accumulating snow out of this pattern.  Especially for you you guys...

 

Pac low is in a pretty good spot with -EPO/-AO with wsw flow with active STJ, hmmm, maybe not

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It is a bit colder/longer than last run late in the run.

Yeah, better look overall for days 9 and 10. Not sure what it's worth. Both gfs and euro have a big s/w coming into the Rockies at that time. Got to hold cold air in with some confluence to the north or the Wes storm will be warm and wet. Euro looks better in that regard
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Yeah, better look overall for days 9 and 10. Not sure what it's worth. Both gfs and euro have a big s/w coming into the Rockies at that time. Got to hold cold air in with some confluence to the north or the Wes storm will be warm and wet. Euro looks better in that regard

It's also breaking down the blocking quicker than before days 8-10 but who knows if that's real. 

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A blend of these don't work?  I know this isn't the typical MA HECS pattern you guys expect but someone should be able to see an accumulating snow out of this pattern.  Especially for you you guys...

 

Pac low is in a pretty good spot with -EPO/-AO with wsw flow with active STJ, hmmm, maybe not

We are cynical, pattern snobinistas here. I see cold and dry, then warm and wet. :P

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We are cynical, pattern snobinistas here. I see cold and dry, then warm and wet. :P

I don't think were being picky, a few days ago all the long range guidance was developing a sweet pattern in the 10-15 day period, great blocking, split flow, active stj, and it was showing this consistently for days.  The last few days its been slipping away, the pattern doesnt look awful but every run seems to pick away at some of the ingredients we need.  Block breaks down, we lose the PNA/EPO, Ridging develops over the northeast, STJ decides to disappear...its something.  The one constant is for the last few days (other then one 18z GFS run) we have not been able to put it all together and get a run that shows a flush hit.  I still think we could get something, the pattern is not hostile, but looks less perfect then it did 3 days ago. 

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I dug around the 12z GEFS run and hr 276 stood out to me all the way around. There are enough pieces in place to consider this a pretty good signal at range. There's no 50/50 so the HP will be sliding but it's kinda silly to even think that deeply.

 

The short story is good shortwave/vort placement, decent block, confluence, favorable hp placement, good thermodynamics, and a nice cluster of member SLP placements. A real miller A look to the precip pattern to our southeast.  IMO- this is a legit setup but too far out to overthink or get invested in.

 

 

post-2035-0-40493700-1452024371_thumb.jp

 

 

post-2035-0-73889400-1452024393_thumb.jp

 

 

post-2035-0-45378700-1452024404_thumb.jp

 

 

post-2035-0-26559900-1452024416_thumb.jp

 

 

post-2035-0-02799100-1452024427_thumb.jp

 

 

 

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