Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Where do you get that so early Bob? I see yesterday's still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 At least the Jan 66 date on the analog list was a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Where do you get that so early Bob? I see yesterday's still. Right on CPC's site. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11 You probably use the same link? Might need to refresh cache? It's usually up by 8-9AM every morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Where do you get that so early Bob? I see yesterday's still. click on model guidance then click on day 11 in the left column then click GFS ENS , edit or click Bobs link lol. Important to read the discussion when it comes out to see the % of each model they use to generate their outlooks. The analogs often vary a lot run to run but the GFS Ens but very useful to see repetitive dates. 1983 1978 1966 have been in the mix for a while on the good side, on the dry cold side 1981 1998 keep showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 ^^ ahh cool thanks. I never saw that page just used the main one for 8-14 etc http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If anyone is looking for a quick "pick me up", check out Bernie Rayno's 7am video. Definitely worth your 7 minutes. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/winter-is-coming-snow-threat-f If you want the cliff notes--next Monday/Tuesday interesting, later in the week more interesting (for the I95). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 At least the Jan 66 date on the analog list was a MECS.I posted that period the other day. The blocking config on models seemed similar. But that's like a top end hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 At least the Jan 66 date on the analog list was a MECS. That was a wonderful sequence for our subforum from 1/22 onwards-- first storm favored NW, second one SE, and the third one was the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I posted that period the other day. The blocking config on models seemed similar. But that's like a top end hope. It's the whole luck thing. It's like the 10-11th deal. It had potential but the stupid northern stream front runner screwed it up. There's another window down the line but we need some alignment of things that can barely be predicted in the medium range. I thought the overnight and morning ensembles were pretty meh but definitely not bad until you get late in the runs which comes with a truckload of caveats. There are signs that the Pac flexes the bad kind of way but nothing set in stone. It doesn't look like we are entering a solid extended blocky/cold look though. At least the high latitudes are loaded with AN heights. So even if we have kind of a stinky mid latitude trough/ridge config it could be temporary. Nothing like what we had to do to get out of December's nasty +AO/NAO and eastern ridge. You would think that IF the Pac flexes and we end up with more troughiness in the west and warmer east that it will progress eastward. And any big storm that cuts west could reconfigure everything and open up another window. Just some random thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 90-95% of the time, serious threats don't materialize until 2-4 days in advance. Once the warm period passes, we'll be in a good "pattern" and that's when we can take the operationals seriously. Post 1/15 remains my target period, but I'm hoping for a fluke with that 2nd "event" that's been on, though mostly off, the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 0z EPS and 6z GEFS still supporting the coastal around idea the 16-18. 15 day mean snowfall for DCA is 1.5" on the EPS. I still like the 15-20th to deliver. Pretty sure the ensembles were calling for a snowstorm this weekend several days ago...that is why DT went woof...the ensembles are only correct when they scream warm That window has the most potential we have seen, but I am not sure I would say ensembles support something that strongly. I know snow maps are often useless but I have found over the last few years just glancing at the ensemble avg 8-15 day snowfall to be telling actually. In the last few years when we were about to get hit with a snowy period that were showing some impressive outputs. I have some images saved of ensemble avg snowfalls of well over 12" across our area, some over 20. For this period were looking at 1-3" run to run. That is kinda weak sauce honestly compared to what they typically show when were about to get a good period. Yes the h5 pattern is supportive in that time, but the problem with that is there are more examples when a good pattern doesnt produce then did, we just remember the ones that did. Small issues can ruin a good pattern overall. Models to me are saying something isnt quite right and its more likely we miss then hit. We have a chance, there are several members in each run that do hit us with a storm but more miss. I keep worrying about a procrastination winter that never produces! I think we were spoiled the last 2 years, but I also think we waited quite a while to get snow last year as well.. kept hoping in January and it took until February to deliver. It was plenty cold last January! I am not worried yet about the whole winter. There is of course a chance we go wall to wall suckage as 73 and 98 loom in the analogs, but there are also 41, 58, 66, and 83 as examples where we went pretty late into winter then got something good. 78 keeps popping up in analogs with dates a week or two before things got good so that gives hope also. 58 started to develop blocking mid januaray but it wasnt until mid feb that the pattern really produced. (yea i know we had a storm dec 58 but otherwise it was warm early winter) It wouldn't surprise me if we have to wait until feb then get a nice hit. Something to ponder with today's CPC d11+ analogs... analogs.JPG When we have nino years with such drastically different results like 73, 98, 78, and 66 showing up, it makes me ponder that very small factors can turn our snow results either way, and luck could have as much to do with it as anything else. There could also be minor players outside the nino that flip the pattern either way. On top of that, if you look at the h5 differences, its a very small change between a great pattern like 66 or 78, and the dumpster fire that was 98. Basically put a ridge at h5 over the northeast while keeping everything else the same and it turns a great pattern into a disaster. Its a big difference in ground truth for such a minor change at h5. I would like to see some big juiced up systems start coming out of the gulf though, that at least would make me feel more confident we could score a big hit with some luck during a cold period. The current northern stream dominated pattern worries me that we have a lower probability of hitting during windows of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 There's some events showing up on the d8+ as well. One ice and 2 good snows (66 analog again + jan 61) and 2 mixed events (Jan 78 & 79). It all makes sense. The 12th-18th is going to be our shot this month. Nothing groundbreaking there. It's been well discussed already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 90-95% of the time, serious threats don't materialize until 2-4 days in advance. Once the warm period passes, we'll be in a good "pattern" and that's when we can take the operationals seriously. Post 1/15 remains my target period, but I'm hoping for a fluke with that 2nd "event" that's been on, though mostly off, the radar. It will be particularly the case in this pattern since the GFS will be of no use since it squashes everything coming out of Texas or the Gulf States and the Euro just is not that good a model anymore beyond day 6 so I think we are likely going to be somewhat surprised when something does finally materialize. I said places down south like RDU/ATL/CLT may have 3-4 days notice at best, that was about all they had in ATL in 2014 for that snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 90-95% of the time, serious threats don't materialize until 2-4 days in advance. Once the warm period passes, we'll be in a good "pattern" and that's when we can take the operationals seriously. Post 1/15 remains my target period, but I'm hoping for a fluke with that 2nd "event" that's been on, though mostly off, the radar. Yeah lots of moving parts. Still possible to time something with the trough moving in late in the weekend. If it can sharpen a bit, and we can time it right, still could score something early next week. Its not dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It will be particularly the case in this pattern since the GFS will be of no use since it squashes everything coming out of Texas or the Gulf States and the Euro just is not that good a model anymore beyond day 6 so I think we are likely going to be somewhat surprised when something does finally materialize. I said places down south like RDU/ATL/CLT may have 3-4 days notice at best, that was about all they had in ATL in 2014 for that snow event. Do you think all of the resolution upgrades to the euro has made it less reliable to get "general" ideas right in the long range? too much noise throwing it off on a tangent sometimes. Just a thought, and before someone slams with with verification stats showing how much better it is now, I am talking more consistency vs accuracy here. It can be more accurate overall but if the track of a major system flips around every few runs its hard to use it as reliably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yeah lots of moving parts. Still possible to time something with the trough moving in late in the weekend. If it can sharpen a bit, and we can time it right, still could score something early next week. Its not dead yet. I'll never forget how everyone was keying on the the next short wave back around 1/22/00 and that's why, I believe, many mets were reluctant to believe the system would come north. Of course, the models weren't bringing it north either, but during the morning and afternoon of 1/24/00 it sure looked like it was coming north. Hence, it's always hard to give up on something this far away regardless of how bad it may look at 6-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Mount Holly on the potential for early next week.. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A POTENTIAL MERGING OF THE FLOW DURING THISTIME FRAME, WHICH STRENGTHENS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE EASTERNHALF OF THE NATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE TIMING AND POSITIONOF THIS TROUGH WILL BE CRITICAL TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THERE ISSOME POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATESSUNDAY THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE INCOMING AND SHARPENINGUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARIABILITY AMONG THEDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVENALL THE MOVING PIECES AND THE INITIAL SPLIT FLOW. WHETHER OR NOT ASTORM DEVELOPS AND AFFECTS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MUCHCOLDER AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I kinda liked what the 6z GFS was hinting at...a wave moving up from the gulf and along the SE coast Tues-Wed. The cold is in by then, question is if it comes up or stays weakish and slides out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'll never forget how everyone was keying on the the next short wave back around 1/22/00 and that's why, I believe, many mets were reluctant to believe the system would come north. Of course, the models weren't bringing it north either, but during the morning and afternoon of 1/24/00 it sure looked like it was coming north. Hence, it's always hard to give up on something this far away regardless of how bad it may look at 6-7 days. I'm not sure a reverse bust like that is possible anymore. Models have come a long long ways. A 400+ mile bust inside of 48 hours seems highly unlikely. Models can blow qpf/ptype etc at very short range (by short range I mean as the event is underway. lol). But the large synoptic pieces are usually nailed within typical margin of error once you get inside of 48 hours. Even miller B screw jobs which are quite difficult to get right are usually mostly figured out inside of 48 hours nowadays. By me posting this we'll probably see some sort of epic 24 hour bust or reverse bust this winter. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 great track on 12z GFS and still rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I kinda liked what the 6z GFS was hinting at...a wave moving up from the gulf and along the SE coast Tues-Wed. The cold is in by then, question is if it comes up or stays weakish and slides out.. Well I have the answer to that for the 12z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 great track on 12z GFS and still rain lol 1997-98ing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 1997-98ing to be fair, it was our first kinda threat this year. 0-1 is not that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 great track on 12z GFS and still rain lol That would be rain in any winter. It's a crap synoptic setup for snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 That would be rain in any winter. It's a crap synoptic setup for snow here.woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm not sure a reverse bust like that is possible anymore. Models have come a long long ways. A 400+ mile bust inside of 48 hours seems highly unlikely. Models can blow qpf/ptype etc at very short range (by short range I mean as the event is underway. lol). But the large synoptic pieces are usually nailed within typical margin of error once you get inside of 48 hours. Even miller B screw jobs which are quite difficult to get right are usually mostly figured out inside of 48 hours nowadays. By me posting this we'll probably see some sort of epic 24 hour bust or reverse bust this winter. haha HAHA! In 2014 we saw that crazy south trend on storms! They looked like they would be north and then just moved south each run! That was crazy! That was a blessed year of oddities that worked in our favor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 great track on 12z GFS and still rain lol After that...drier than... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Good news is that all those unicorn storms never materialized. Maybe the rain and dry cold won't materialize either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 After that...drier than... But a nice hardy congrats goes out to Maine at hour 312. You deserve a snowstorm more than anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 HAHA! In 2014 we saw that crazy south trend on storms! They looked like they would be north and then just moved south each run! That was crazy! That was a blessed year of oddities that worked in our favor! Incremental stuff like that is pretty normal. Showing a 400 mile no chance whiff on all guidance (I assume all guidance but I didn't look at models back then) become a HECS inside of 48 hours is a whole different thing. I know the headlines weren't hoisted until the event was under way. I (like every other weenie) was watching radar and thinking OMG!!! It was a great storm on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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