Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 It's happening Best ens run yet. Seems too quick but ens guidance isn't budgin so I'm huggin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Best ens run yet. Seems too quick but ens guidance isn't budgin so I'm huggin. Could be too quick tho I think general ideas have supported this progression via weeklies in particular, maybe 2 week active period with storms generally progressing east over time. More active STJ initially working with stronger +AO/NAO first few sys generally want to be inland stuff as other items slowly realign and axes shift shift east with time. Given strong Nino climo I just have a hard time thinking that configuration will last. Can see hints it won't per the ENS rollover analogs. The thoughts mitchnick laid out last night aren't too hard to imagine as a potential outcome for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Could be too quick tho I think general ideas have supported this progression via weeklies in particular, maybe 2 week active period with storms generally progressing east over time. More active STJ initially working with stronger +AO/NAO first few sys generally want to be inland stuff as other items slowly realign and axes shift shift east with time. Given strong Nino climo I just have a hard time thinking that configuration will last. Can see hints it won't per the ENS rollover analogs. The thoughts mitchnick laid out last night aren't too hard to imagine as a potential outcome for winter. Agreed. -EPO isn't going to have staying power because of how strong the Nino is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 When a change occurs, how fast can the models esp. ensembles pick up on it? Maybe it's not a matter of the change occurring too quickly or maybe it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 This thread has me believin' like the redskins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Best ens run yet. Seems too quick but ens guidance isn't budgin so I'm huggin. That Ridge out west does build fast after day 12. Hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 How we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Agreed. -EPO isn't going to have staying power because of how strong the Nino is. Definitely not a common feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Who'd have guessed this was a T at DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Best ens run yet. Seems too quick but ens guidance isn't budgin so I'm huggin. Almost no cold air anywhere, the bar is very low in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the monster low/storm of last week in the Gulf of AK may be coaxing the aleutian low back into existence for the first time this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 How we lookin? Ian and Wes just jumped on board with Bob Chill's call for Blizz of 96 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 D10-15 euro ens members have the most snowy solutions ive seen this winter. Far from an overwhelming signal but the 12z global ensembles have been quite kind today. By far the coldest eps run yet d10-15. We prob gonna start seeing more and more op fantasies this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 ANyone wondering why a -EPO won't stick around with a strong Nino, here's an illustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Almost no cold air anywhere, the bar is very low in 2016. Look closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Ian and Wes just jumped on board with Bob Chill's call for Blizz of 96 redux. Weenies....all 3 of 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Look closer. It's too dark in the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 GFS ens members would suggest the period starting in about a week would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 GFS ens members would suggest the period starting in about a week would be interesting. I am noticing more of a press of colder air/it getting closer to us as storm pass. I think we might be starting to see light at the end of the tunnel. Now watch in an hour the GFS is gonna make a fool out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I am noticing more of a press of colder air/it getting closer to us as storm pass. I think we might be starting to see light at the end of the tunnel. Now watch in an hour the GFS is gonna make a fool out of me. We've been in the "toss it if it's good" mode for a bit. Now it's time for "toss it if its bad". 96 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 00z GFS blows if you are a wintry weather lover... unless you like 20s/30s late in the run for highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Meh, 00z GFS was a step backwards until late in the run if you are a wintry weather lover Well there is a threat at 252 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Well there is a threat at 252 hrs Sure... if you like highs in the 40s with it... and its rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I actually like the 00z GFS throughout. I'm not expecting any threat within 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 GFS is painting the ground white at the end of the run. Still, everything can and probably will change several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Euro extremely warm next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Euro extremely warm next 10 days I feel as though that statement will ring true until for every 10 day period between now and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Overnight guidance remains on track. Right now it looks like our chance for wintry remains pretty far out there but pretty unanimous across the board for things getting decent around Jan 3rd or so. Epo/pna flip staying locked around the 31st/1st time frame. But we still need to shake the ridge so it looks like it will be a few days after that for us to at least feel wintry. Looks pretty amplified and active through the end of the ens runs. Seeing so many runs hold the flip out west and not moving it forward in time is encouraging. The EC troughing d13-15 looks solid too. Gefs definitely more agressive with higher heights around gl/np than the eps but but ens are very similar late in their runs with the large scale lw pattern. That raises the confidence bar that the Dec warm and impossible to snow pattern will be gone for at least a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Overnight guidance remains on track. Right now it looks like our chance for wintry remains pretty far out there but pretty unanimous across the board for things getting decent around Jan 3rd or so. Epo/pna flip staying locked around the 31st/1st time frame. But we still need to shake the ridge so it looks like it will be a few days after that for us to at least feel wintry. Looks pretty amplified and active through the end of the ens runs. Seeing so many runs hold the flip out west and not moving it forward in time is encouraging. The EC troughing d13-15 looks solid too. Gefs definitely more agressive with higher heights around gl/np than the eps but but ens are very similar late in their runs with the large scale lw pattern. That raises the confidence bar that the Dec warm and impossible to snow pattern will be gone for at least a little while. Pretty decent looking. Hopefully it doesn't get delayed, and has some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Pretty decent looking. Hopefully it doesn't get delayed, and has some staying power. It's really hard to say. This flip kinda just jumped on us. Definitely quicker than anyone expected. The +pna is pretty normal for Nino's so that isn't that surprising. The -epo is so I would think that would be more of a transient feature but wearing weenie glasses you can envision the -epo/+pna giving us at least a chance or 2 at something and buy some time to let the ao/nao continue to improve. Tonight's weeklies could give some insight. The 0z euro ens looked pretty good so rolling that forward another 2 weeks could look nice. The current pattern advertised d10-15 is similar to the end of week 3 from the last weeklies but some notable differences with a more favorable trough axis and not hanging heights back to the west nearly as much. I think the 0z and 6z gefs members showed some promise. You can see here as the pna goes + we are still unanimously fighting the ridge: But a few days later the look is half decent on most members. Definitely amplified. Could be a big storm for someone anywhere with the NE obviously the favored spot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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