Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 that's kind of what i was concerned about. people are mentioning teleconnections, but unless i'm mistaken those teleconnections represent differences in pressure, not the actual pressure. if there's not much cold air to be found, then we can have great teleconnections and not so great results. at least that's how i'm interpreting it. what's good though is that it's january so may not take more than a good track to get something. Comes down to the Pac. It has in the past and will again in the future negate a -ao/nao. Dec 2012 was a prime example among many others like 97-98...lol. When good blocking displaces pac maritime air it doesn't work out so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Well that's better on the 18z lol. The DT storm for the moment is a weakling low that skirts off the SE coast. A few rain/snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Some of our biggest snow came from lows projected to skirt off the s/e coast. This one isn't dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Since the weeklies initiated with last night's 0z ens run it's hard to rely on them if the shift at 12z today is correct. Tricky month so far. Dec was easy. Flat out scorcher. Jan is proving much more volatile with LR guidance so far. I'd favor the warmer ideas in general. I'm not implying I think we're toast or anything. Just that going with normal to above is probably a better guess than BN. Yeah perhaps tho it looked like the 0z run was headed the same general direction. Given there's some agreement across GFS/Euro ens and the weeklies it seems there's potential at the least. I suspected this little period wouldn't be that long lasting. Also favor a + Jan here at this point but yeah hard to say it would be by a ton. I think our hope is we get a little something ahead and then hope Feb does what it's supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I thought we would be tracking something by now. We don't have **** to track inside 10 days 18z gfs gave you a hecs with pretty blue colors. Rest easy my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice storm on the 300+ hour GFS. Edit: Ninja'd by Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I thought we would be tracking something by now. We don't have **** to track inside 10 days After we get 100" please remember to make a "Still Disappointed in how this Winter Started" thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 18z gfs gave you a hecs with pretty blue colors. Rest easy my friend. if it's not within 10 days...it dosent count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 if it's not within 10 days...it dosent count The monsters lock in early. There is no doubt it will stay there for at least the next 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice storm on the 300+ hour GFS. Edit: Ninja'd by Bob The 15-20th period makes more sense than this weekend/early next week for something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice storm on the 300+ hour GFS. Edit: Ninja'd by Bob euro weeklies marcus dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The Wes storm may save winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The more misses we get, the better off we'll be when one decides to bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 if it's not within 10 days...it dosent count Navgem at 156 is a crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 if it's not within 10 days...it dosent count 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Navgem at 156 is a crushing.I don't think it's won since it was the NOGAPS so it must be due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The good news is the euro went even more beast with the -ao/nao. The bad news is it looks more like the GEFS and is decidedly warmer late in the run vs last night. Hmmm, well, that's a bit concerning to hear. Especially after several days and runs of consistently showing a cold look throughout. Do the EPS members later in the run diminish the AO/NAO (beyond when it's a "beast"), or is the warmer appearance due to relaxation of the EPO/PNA ridging? The monsters lock in early. There is no doubt it will stay there for at least the next 6 hours. Well, or at least until the 18Z ensembles come out, which will be less than 6 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I mean the 18z is sweet for extended cold and maybe snow toward end. Not quite weenie run but it would be a solid winter feeling. Wes likes the time period that shows some promise. Gonna ride that until his next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I mean the 18z is sweet for extended cold and maybe snow toward end. Not quite weenie run but it would be a solid winter feeling. Wes likes the time period that shows some promise. Gonna ride that until his next update. I think right now we'd all take it. Happy hour GFS doing what it does best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 If you can salivate over a long range 18Z GFS solution. This is the one to do it. That is an absolute bomb.....Oh what the hell am I doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 What about the CRAS...errr, oops, I meant "the model which should not be named"!! Until it's in CRAS range we just can't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 If you can salivate over a long range 18Z GFS solution. This is the one to do it. That is an absolute bomb.....Oh what the hell am I doing? Quick, someone put that in the digital snow thread. We need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Hmmm, well, that's a bit concerning to hear. Especially after several days and runs of consistently showing a cold look throughout. Do the EPS members later in the run diminish the AO/NAO (beyond when it's a "beast"), or is the warmer appearance due to relaxation of the EPO/PNA ridging? Ao/nao look solid. It's a pac assault with a goa trough and +epo. Which is to be expected at times during a nino. If the fantasy pattern happens you have to wonder how long it lasts. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Godzilla PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Ao/nao look solid. It's a pac assault with a goa trough and +epo. Which is to be expected at times during a nino. If the fantasy pattern happens you have to wonder how long it lasts. Who knows. Gah! That's what I thought and was afraid of, the Pacific becoming less friendly to hostile again. Yes, in a Nino you won't get the sustained -EPO/+PNA we had the past couple of years. But I just hope it doesn't lock in with a damned vortex in the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Fantasy storm on the GFS aligns with 12z EPS potential and the GEFS window that's shown up. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I love how everyone just ignores the 150-60 hour threat looking marginally better to talk about Unicorn Storm 2016 A 150 hour threat on the gfs IS a unicorn storm. No need to look further out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Godzilla PV We can still get our -3 AO without it according to the GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Fantasy storm on the GFS aligns with 12z EPS potential and the GEFS window that's shown up. All in. I agree. I also have liked that period based on the advertised pattern. And Wes likes it, which is greater than me liking it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 We can still get our -3 AO without it according to the GEFS mean.HM says this is a bootleg -ao/-nao not caused by the typical processes. But either way too much PV focus in recent years. Always wonder how something that was never big on the wx forums goes viral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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