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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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that's kind of what i was concerned about.  people are mentioning teleconnections, but unless i'm mistaken those teleconnections represent differences in pressure, not the actual pressure.  if there's not much cold air to be found, then we can have great teleconnections and not so great results.  at least that's how i'm interpreting it.  what's good though is that it's january so may not take more than a good track to get something.

 

Comes down to the Pac. It has in the past and will again in the future negate a -ao/nao. Dec 2012 was a prime example among many others like 97-98...lol. When good blocking displaces pac maritime air it doesn't work out so well. 

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Since the weeklies initiated with last night's 0z ens run it's hard to rely on them if the shift at 12z today is correct. Tricky month so far. Dec was easy. Flat out scorcher. Jan is proving much more volatile with LR guidance so far. I'd favor the warmer ideas in general. I'm not implying I think we're toast or anything. Just that going with normal to above is probably a better guess than BN. 

Yeah perhaps tho it looked like the 0z run was headed the same general direction. Given there's some agreement across GFS/Euro ens and the weeklies it seems there's potential at the least. I suspected this little period wouldn't be that long lasting. Also favor a + Jan here at this point but yeah hard to say it would be by a ton. I think our hope is we get a little something ahead and then hope Feb does what it's supposed to.

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The good news is the euro went even more beast with the -ao/nao. The bad news is it looks more like the GEFS and is decidedly warmer late in the run vs last night. 

 

Hmmm, well, that's a bit concerning to hear.  Especially after several days and runs of consistently showing a cold look throughout.  Do the EPS members later in the run diminish the AO/NAO (beyond when it's a "beast"), or is the warmer appearance due to relaxation of the EPO/PNA ridging?

 

 

 

The monsters lock in early. There is no doubt it will stay there for at least the next 6 hours.

 

Well, or at least until the 18Z ensembles come out, which will be less than 6 hours!

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Hmmm, well, that's a bit concerning to hear. Especially after several days and runs of consistently showing a cold look throughout. Do the EPS members later in the run diminish the AO/NAO (beyond when it's a "beast"), or is the warmer appearance due to relaxation of the EPO/PNA ridging?

Ao/nao look solid. It's a pac assault with a goa trough and +epo. Which is to be expected at times during a nino. If the fantasy pattern happens you have to wonder how long it lasts. Who knows.

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Ao/nao look solid. It's a pac assault with a goa trough and +epo. Which is to be expected at times during a nino. If the fantasy pattern happens you have to wonder how long it lasts. Who knows.

 

Gah!  That's what I thought and was afraid of, the Pacific becoming less friendly to hostile again.  Yes, in a Nino you won't get the sustained -EPO/+PNA we had the past couple of years.  But I just hope it doesn't lock in with a damned vortex in the GOA.

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We can still get our -3 AO without it according to the GEFS mean.

HM says this is a bootleg -ao/-nao not caused by the typical processes. But either way too much PV focus in recent years. Always wonder how something that was never big on the wx forums goes viral.
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