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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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Let's leave a little lightheartedness in trying times up and not worry about curmudgeon-ness.      We'll all get through this....we got a week or more and models have been known to waffle in such a "long" lead time.    Hang in there.  

 

Ian, we'll be at MR week after next watching SN+ through the window.  

Thank You.

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Let's leave a little lightheartedness in trying times up and not worry about curmudgeon-ness. We'll all get through this....we got a week or more and models have been known to waffle in such a "long" lead time. Hang in there.

Ian, we'll be at MR week after next watching SN+ through the window.

Amen some take this too seriously
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To have any hope for the 11th we need the first wave to be strong enough to drag the baroclinic zone eastward.

Euro and EPS drag that baroclinic zone east...right offshore. Practically destroys wave 2. But it looks cold. Maybe we can get a clipper.

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Now, something that seems to be true of the previous strong el nino winters that ended with above-average snow is that the cold indeed didn't lock in until mid-January and the first major snow didn't come until either the end of January or later. Now, I'm a "previous trends" guy, so I'm kinda pinning the hope on that--By that trend, might be a bit early still to start looking for snow...And again, it doesn't appear that, at least for the last 50 years, we've had a warm Christmas in a strong el Nino that wasn't followed by an above average snow Jan-early Mar (and at least one big storm). Stay encouraged, folks!

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Many instances of snowstorms not being modeled until 2-3 days out, so there's is still hope in this pattern. Give me a Jan.2000 and I'll be good for this winter. Btw, I was watching The Weather Channel this morning ( I know....they are horrble ), and my local 8's said 0% chance of precipitation today, and within 10 minutes, we had light snow here just outside of RIC.

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To have any hope for the 11th we need the first wave to be strong enough to drag the baroclinic zone eastward.

 

 

Euro and EPS drag that baroclinic zone east...right offshore. Practically destroys wave 2. But it looks cold. Maybe we can get a clipper.

 

 

These two posts show that there is always hope.  No need for anybody to be discouraged.

 

If models were showing the same thing over and over again, Ok, but not when you have different solutions being spit out every 6-12 hours.

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Now, something that seems to be true of the previous strong el nino winters that ended with above-average snow is that the cold indeed didn't lock in until mid-January and the first major snow didn't come until either the end of January or later. Now, I'm a "previous trends" guy, so I'm kinda pinning the hope on that--By that trend, might be a bit early still to start looking for snow...And again, it doesn't appear that, at least for the last 50 years, we've had a warm Christmas in a strong el Nino that wasn't followed by an above average snow Jan-early Mar (and at least one big storm). Stay encouraged, folks!

This tracking might even be that much earlier than those other years, no?

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EPS doesn't show much of anything snow wise with the 10-11th again. Just a couple random members show some snow and they all have a 1025+/- hp nosing in above the second wave. GEFS was worse. We're getting fairly close for ens guidance at this point. Not seeing any decisive moves towards a chance should keep expectations low. I personally have none. 

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This tracking might even be that much earlier than those other years, no?

If you're referring to the way the pattern is behaving now, not sure (just a rookie weather watcher here, lol). As far as the timing of the mild pattern breaking down and the cold temperatures starting to take hold, seems like things are pretty much on the same schedule as at least two of those winters (82-83, 65-66)
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If you're referring to the way the pattern is behaving now, not sure (just a rookie weather watcher here, lol). As far as the timing of the mild pattern breaking down and the cold temperatures starting to take hold, seems like things are pretty much on the same schedule as at least two of those winters (82-83, 65-66)

Nice start for a rookie and welcome! I'm just an an amateur as is many of the rest of us. lol Stick around a while and you'll probably learn more than undergrad met classes. :P

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Weeklies show same general idea, from the week-long averages at least. 'Cold' CONUS week 2, near normal week 3. Above normal NE/northern tier week 4. None of the periods look particularly wet here but they are offshroe to the east. 

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There's just so little real cold anywhere. See how this little shot here compares to forecasts but I'd be tempted to take the over on every modeled cold shot until further notice. 

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Weeklies show same general idea, from the week-long averages at least. 'Cold' CONUS week 2, near normal week 3. Above normal NE/northern tier week 4. None of the periods look particularly wet here but they are offshroe to the east. 

 

Since the weeklies initiated with last night's 0z ens run it's hard to rely on them if the shift at 12z today is correct. Tricky month so far. Dec was easy. Flat out scorcher. Jan is proving much more volatile with LR guidance so far. I'd favor the warmer ideas in general. I'm not implying I think we're toast or anything. Just that going with normal to above is probably a better guess than BN. 

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There's just so little real cold anywhere. See how this little shot here compares to forecasts but I'd be tempted to take the over on every modeled cold shot until further notice. 

 

that's kind of what i was concerned about.  people are mentioning teleconnections, but unless i'm mistaken those teleconnections represent differences in pressure, not the actual pressure.  if there's not much cold air to be found, then we can have great teleconnections and not so great results.  at least that's how i'm interpreting it.  what's good though is that it's january so may not take more than a good track to get something.

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