BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Let's leave a little lightheartedness in trying times up and not worry about curmudgeon-ness. We'll all get through this....we got a week or more and models have been known to waffle in such a "long" lead time. Hang in there. Ian, we'll be at MR week after next watching SN+ through the window. Thank You. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Let's leave a little lightheartedness in trying times up and not worry about curmudgeon-ness. We'll all get through this....we got a week or more and models have been known to waffle in such a "long" lead time. Hang in there. Ian, we'll be at MR week after next watching SN+ through the window. Amen some take this too seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Given the minute or so of flurries that many saw this AM, just assumed we were moving to storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Given the minute or so of flurries that many saw this AM, just assumed we were moving to storm mode. Nice reverse jinx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 And if not we can all meet in The Panic Room to burn that sucker down with our melts. Stay positive. The cold looks like a lock at this point. We all know models don't handle individual waves well beyond a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 To have any hope for the 11th we need the first wave to be strong enough to drag the baroclinic zone eastward. Euro and EPS drag that baroclinic zone east...right offshore. Practically destroys wave 2. But it looks cold. Maybe we can get a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro and EPS drag that baroclinic zone east...right offshore. Practically destroys wave 2. But it looks cold. Maybe we can get a clipper. So another curve-ball? That's fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Now, something that seems to be true of the previous strong el nino winters that ended with above-average snow is that the cold indeed didn't lock in until mid-January and the first major snow didn't come until either the end of January or later. Now, I'm a "previous trends" guy, so I'm kinda pinning the hope on that--By that trend, might be a bit early still to start looking for snow...And again, it doesn't appear that, at least for the last 50 years, we've had a warm Christmas in a strong el Nino that wasn't followed by an above average snow Jan-early Mar (and at least one big storm). Stay encouraged, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Many instances of snowstorms not being modeled until 2-3 days out, so there's is still hope in this pattern. Give me a Jan.2000 and I'll be good for this winter. Btw, I was watching The Weather Channel this morning ( I know....they are horrble ), and my local 8's said 0% chance of precipitation today, and within 10 minutes, we had light snow here just outside of RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro and EPS drag that baroclinic zone east...right offshore. Practically destroys wave 2. But it looks cold. Maybe we can get a clipper. So I'm assuming this is not a good look for points west of DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Quite a number of changes in the op and ensemble runs in the last three days. Anyone want to hazzard a guess when the models will accurately predict the end result of the Sunday/Monday storm, if it exists at all, now or then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The good news is the euro went even more beast with the -ao/nao. The bad news is it looks more like the GEFS and is decidedly warmer late in the run vs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 To have any hope for the 11th we need the first wave to be strong enough to drag the baroclinic zone eastward. Euro and EPS drag that baroclinic zone east...right offshore. Practically destroys wave 2. But it looks cold. Maybe we can get a clipper. These two posts show that there is always hope. No need for anybody to be discouraged. If models were showing the same thing over and over again, Ok, but not when you have different solutions being spit out every 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Now, something that seems to be true of the previous strong el nino winters that ended with above-average snow is that the cold indeed didn't lock in until mid-January and the first major snow didn't come until either the end of January or later. Now, I'm a "previous trends" guy, so I'm kinda pinning the hope on that--By that trend, might be a bit early still to start looking for snow...And again, it doesn't appear that, at least for the last 50 years, we've had a warm Christmas in a strong el Nino that wasn't followed by an above average snow Jan-early Mar (and at least one big storm). Stay encouraged, folks! This tracking might even be that much earlier than those other years, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Navgem looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 EPS doesn't show much of anything snow wise with the 10-11th again. Just a couple random members show some snow and they all have a 1025+/- hp nosing in above the second wave. GEFS was worse. We're getting fairly close for ens guidance at this point. Not seeing any decisive moves towards a chance should keep expectations low. I personally have none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Navgem looks good What's its track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 What's its track record? Perfect. If the NAVGEM is on board, it's a go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This tracking might even be that much earlier than those other years, no?If you're referring to the way the pattern is behaving now, not sure (just a rookie weather watcher here, lol). As far as the timing of the mild pattern breaking down and the cold temperatures starting to take hold, seems like things are pretty much on the same schedule as at least two of those winters (82-83, 65-66) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and the rain/snow line is all the way up into Burlington, VT. Unbelievable. Maybe, just maybe, we chase these teleconnections too much. Give me the pattern of the last two winters anytime. Huge EPO ridge and no blocking, and we did very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 If you're referring to the way the pattern is behaving now, not sure (just a rookie weather watcher here, lol). As far as the timing of the mild pattern breaking down and the cold temperatures starting to take hold, seems like things are pretty much on the same schedule as at least two of those winters (82-83, 65-66) Nice start for a rookie and welcome! I'm just an an amateur as is many of the rest of us. lol Stick around a while and you'll probably learn more than undergrad met classes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 EPS still has the storm signal for the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Ugly ensemble runs overall today. Let's hope the weeklies don't suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Ugly ensemble runs overall today. Let's hope the weeklies don't suck. Really. We never made it to a good pattern and we are headed for a bad one already. This is a tough year. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Lol at the changes in the handling of the northern stream on the GFS since 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Weeklies show same general idea, from the week-long averages at least. 'Cold' CONUS week 2, near normal week 3. Above normal NE/northern tier week 4. None of the periods look particularly wet here but they are offshroe to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 There's just so little real cold anywhere. See how this little shot here compares to forecasts but I'd be tempted to take the over on every modeled cold shot until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Weeklies show same general idea, from the week-long averages at least. 'Cold' CONUS week 2, near normal week 3. Above normal NE/northern tier week 4. None of the periods look particularly wet here but they are offshroe to the east. Since the weeklies initiated with last night's 0z ens run it's hard to rely on them if the shift at 12z today is correct. Tricky month so far. Dec was easy. Flat out scorcher. Jan is proving much more volatile with LR guidance so far. I'd favor the warmer ideas in general. I'm not implying I think we're toast or anything. Just that going with normal to above is probably a better guess than BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 There's just so little real cold anywhere. See how this little shot here compares to forecasts but I'd be tempted to take the over on every modeled cold shot until further notice. that's kind of what i was concerned about. people are mentioning teleconnections, but unless i'm mistaken those teleconnections represent differences in pressure, not the actual pressure. if there's not much cold air to be found, then we can have great teleconnections and not so great results. at least that's how i'm interpreting it. what's good though is that it's january so may not take more than a good track to get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 ...like the last 2 years, we didn't always have the best setup, but we had the cold, and so it snowed more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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