BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Thanks for the lecture. You're right, I'm not. Are you? Good luck with your analysis. I hate to break the news to you.........you can do all of the analysis you want, but it won't make it snow. My post wasn't directed at you and I'm sorry if you took it that way. We're in this together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 These are the types of comments we see when things are not going well... lolThings are decidedly better now. Barely 35 right now and when this high departs we will not be in the 60s for a week but rather 50 for a dayThis always creates an uproar but 15 years of model watching leads me to the conclusion that in the 3-10 day window they portray any and all solutions I will leave it up to you all to decide why that is and it's not "chaos" So, in a general sense there is some low around the coast and some cold high pressure somewhere to nw. That's really all we are going to get from models 7 days in advance. It is at least better than 7+ years ago when over and over they would show a coastal which ended up being a thru the Ohio valley and extreme western ny state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The trough axis is too far west but the 12z run had the Canadian HP a good deal east of the 6z run. Hopefully the EURO today will look better. Still too far out in time to trust any model run. Should know by Thursday our chances for the 10th & 11th with all the chaos that exists in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 When things started to go downhill for threats 1 and 2 I wasn't too surprised or disappointed because models often rush a pattern change, and we are coming from such a mess I figured its reasonable for the cold to take some time to get entrenched. As said before we do way better in this type pattern when the cold is in place in front of an STJ system. The last 24 hours I have noticed something that does trouble me some and that is a divergence starting between the GFS and Euro in the day 10+ range. The euro still is advertising a good pattern in the 10-20 day period and a good window of opportunity. The GFS has begun to continue to "push back" the cold getting in, even one run advertising another cutter right behind the 11th storm, and some runs never really establish a good pattern and keep the trough axis too far to our west. I tend to trust the euro more then the GFS at this point for long range but I would like to see signs in the next few days that the GEFS is coming around towards the EPS on this. Good post. I pretty much agree with everything in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I wonder what the forums would have been like in 97-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Slightly off topic, but that system off the coast of FL being modeled just prior to next weekend's event keeps deepening with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I wonder what the forums would have been like in 97-98. Luckily for you, you'll get to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I wonder what the forums would have been like in 97-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I wonder what the forums would have been like in 97-98. so many ifs there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I wonder what the forums would have been like in 97-98. I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I wonder what the forums would have been like in 97-98. The answer may be easier than we think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I'm sorry It's ok. I've given up football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The answer may be easier than we think jan98.JPG 98redux.JPG haha. oof. I definitely have visions of it being cold in between rainstorms at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 haha. oof. I definitely have visions of it being cold in between rainstorms at this point. I think that's a blanket statement every winter. But sometimes it's warm in between them too so at least we have variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 12Z euro is not an ideal solution, but that trailing front sure sped things up by a couple states during the bulk of the precip on 1/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 12z euro strengthens the 1st wave (compared to 00z) and shifts everything east at 500mb and the surface....the 2nd wave tracks over DC...a full 200~ miles to the east of the previous track. Hmmm. UPDATE: PS: Hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 12Z euro is not an ideal solution, but that trailing front sure sped things up by a couple states during the bulk of the precip on 1/10. can we even squeeze a flake or two out of it? At this point I would take anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The answer may be easier than we think jan98.JPG 98redux.JPG I saw that but didn't have the stomach to post it, plus as long as the EPS looks good long range I will contain my inner weenie trying to panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 can we even squeeze a flake or two out of it? At this point I would take anything just dont celebrate it, some people have problems with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 can we even squeeze a flake or two out of it? At this point I would take anything Precip ends by 1/11, but this run had some pretty big changes, imo. The signal did not clear anything up to my eyes as far the CONUS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Basically all northern stream on Euro. Miller B at best? Maybe this will be the Nino with no Miller As. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 People are going to hate me, but the Atlantic warmth is penetrating westward during the 1/10 event while the front advances from the west. The gradient is tightening and we're on the wrong end where things stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Basically all northern stream on Euro. Miller B at best? Maybe this will be the Nino with no Miller As. where is the STJ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 next week is very cold and bone dry....typical strong El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 12z euro strengthens the 1st wave (compared to 00z) and shifts everything east at 500mb and the surface....the 2nd wave tracks over DC...a full 200~ miles to the east of the previous track. Hmmm. UPDATE: PS: Hello I guess purely from looking at when the cold comes in it improved but to me it took a step in the wrong direction towards a storm. Its really just a wave along a front attached to the dominant northern stream feature on this run. Guidance has become more northern stream dominant as we approached these first two events, and now the euro has another northern stream system going to our north around day 8-9. Definitely not what I would want to see. Also not typical of a nino. Honestly so far today has been a lot of not good for me, two crappy op runs and another not so great GEFS long range look. I will wait for the EPS to see if it still has a promising day 10-20 look before getting too upset though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 next week is very cold and bone dry....typical strong El Nino it looks very cold for a day or two, then just regular cold... and I am not so sure given the look that if another system came long it wouldnt track to our north again given the dominance of the northern stream right now. I agree the lack of STJ systems is weird given the nino. Is it possible that the unusual warmth all around the topics is interfering with the usual mechanisms that lead to the active STJ? perhaps the difference in temperatures between the tropics and the surrounding SST's is just as important as the overall temperatures. I don't know just speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Model run aside, what's up with the stj? Does it generally kick in for our region later or has the pattern just suppressed it more than it normally would? It's out there. I'm not sure if it's less than usual overall or not per se, tho we should be seeing some coastals by now you'd think. I think the ridge axis has been bad most of the time so far for coastals around here. Plus strong ninos can have ridging so far south overall it tends to suppress. A blend of strong Ninos isn't a super wet signal in this area really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It's out there. I'm not sure if it's less than usual overall or not per se, tho we should be seeing some coastals by now you'd think. I think the ridge axis has been bad most of the time so far for coastals around here. Plus strong ninos can have ridging so far south overall it tends to suppress. A blend of strong Ninos isn't a super wet signal in this area really. I believe the SOI is crashing again, so maybe we need to wait for it to start rising and having that trend last into the spring. (Also just speculation) eta: *breaks out ku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Let's leave model discussions up and take down Dallas cowboy stars instead There is no "trough axis wrong" to talk about as we are going thru the cover all bases phase right now. You can probably bank on a low moving along the eastern seaboard, either 300 miles offshore or 100 miles inland and a 1030 high somewhere from far eastern lakes to nd/sd border Anthing else is useless fretting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Let's leave a little lightheartedness in trying times up and not worry about curmudgeon-ness. We'll all get through this....we got a week or more and models have been known to waffle in such a "long" lead time. Hang in there. Ian, we'll be at MR week after next watching SN+ through the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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