January Med/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

True. I meant the week prior for the first 2 systems.

 

I don't think the first 2 systems have looked even remotely good for a while now. When the first idea came up, wave 1 tracked east with strong hp above it. As soon as wave 1 became a relatively slow moving cutter through the mid west the wheels kinda fell off. For the last 3 days or so there has been virtually no sign of even marginal HP to the north for wave 2. 

 

As good as the ens mslp have looked for wave 2, there have been no signs of it being a snow storm for the cities. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I don't think the first 2 systems have looked even remotely good for a while now. When the first idea came up, wave 1 tracked east with strong hp above it. As soon as wave 1 became a relatively slow moving cutter through the mid west the wheels kinda fell off. For the last 3 days or so there has been virtually no sign of even marginal HP to the north for wave 2. 

 

As good as the ens mslp have looked for wave 2, there have been no signs of it being a snow storm for the cities. 

 

Any chance Hagerstown or Cumberland and points west can get some accumulating snow with wave 2?  Looks like maybe they have some hope on the 6z.  Really hoping that by MLK weekend the ski areas will have some base. 

[BTRWx]

I don't think the first 2 systems have looked even remotely good for a while now. When the first idea came up, wave 1 tracked east with strong hp above it. As soon as wave 1 became a relatively slow moving cutter through the mid west the wheels kinda fell off. For the last 3 days or so there has been virtually no sign of even marginal HP to the north for wave 2. 

 

As good as the ens mslp have looked for wave 2, there have been no signs of it being a snow storm for the cities. 

That I missed.

[Bob Chill]

Any chance Hagerstown or Cumberland and points west can get some accumulating snow with wave 2?  Looks like maybe they have some hope on the 6z.  Really hoping that by MLK weekend the ski areas will have some base. 

 

I just dug through the euro ens members. Garret Co and the mountains of WV has some hits but still nothing glaring. I would imagine that the upslope machine could crank when the real cold push gets in here. Lakes are wide open and warm + a rotating pv nearby likes to send little spokes of energy down. Closer in areas like whitetail and liberty can open a ton of terrain in a hurry with just 2-3 days of below freezing. They won't hold back when given the op. That's for sure. It's been rough. 

[BTRWx]

I just dug through the euro ens members. Garret Co and the mountains of WV has some hits but still nothing glaring. I would imagine that the upslope machine could crank when the real cold push gets in here. Lakes are wide open and warm + a rotating pv nearby likes to send little spokes of energy down. Closer in areas like whitetail and liberty can open a ton of terrain in a hurry with just 2-3 days of below freezing. They won't hold back when given the op. That's for sure. It's been rough. 

You've got mail!

[PDIII]

In three days we will be sayjng that 1/24 to 1/27 is our window of opportunity... And then after that we will be talking about sun angle.

[eurojosh]

If that low on the 11th was just 8 hours slower in arriving...

[BTRWx]

If that low on the 11th was just 8 hours slower in arriving...

Not impossible.

[Kat]

The low went from being suppressed to an inland track. Nothing is certain this far out-wouldn't be too concerned with one op run.

[Ji]

The low went from being suppressed to an inland track. Nothingit is certain this far out-wouldn't be too concerned with one op run.

if we get a better track...we can get a messy storm....appears that snow is going to fall west of the track with this system. With that being said, i havent seen one model give us snow with this system lol no matter what the track

 

[poolz1]

Just a little bit more separation and we could thread the needle on the second wave.  12zgfs with a much better h5 look imo...pushed the ULL in southern Canada further east.  Such a difference from the 6z run...maybe we can start a trend here...or not?

[BTRWx]

if we get a better track...we can get a messy storm....appears that snow is going to fall west of the track with this system. With that being said, i havent seen one model give us snow with this system lol no matter what the track

 

Time is starting to shorten for something to set up the way we'd need it to.

 

eta: We have seen larger jumps within a week before.

[WxUSAF]

To have any hope for the 11th we need the first wave to be strong enough to drag the baroclinic zone eastward.

[WEATHER53]

The 11th is important because it will likely confirm what lies ahead. All weather boards over last decade have fallen into the "delayed but not denied" myth. Timing is a critical component of weather forecasting and it's easy to fall int the "well not this event but the next one". We have spent at least a couple of winters chasing the onto the next one

[WinterWxLuvr]

I can't figure out why anybody is looking at details on the gfs past 5 days.  If you are, you haven't been paying attention.

 

Also, since we seem to be into that sort of thing, the path of the low on the gfs (second storm - 1/11) isn't a typical track.  Could happen I suppose, but I don't remember seeing too many of those.

[Heisy]

What an epic boring 12z GFS run. 

[WEATHER53]

Time is starting to shorten for something to set up the way we'd need it to.

 

eta: We have seen larger jumps within a week before.

The 1054 high is 847 miles too far west but at least it exists

[WinterWxLuvr]

What an epic boring 12z GFS run. 

No epic pattern?

[Bob Chill]

To have any hope for the 11th we need the first wave to be strong enough to drag the baroclinic zone eastward.

 

Exactly. GFS really jumped with it's h5 progression this run. Not worth overthinking. We can work with a hp dropping in from the NW but man, a lot of things have to go right. 

[BTRWx]

I can't figure out why anybody is looking at details on the gfs past 5 days.  If you are, you haven't been paying attention.

 

Also, since we seem to be into that sort of thing, the path of the low on the gfs (second storm - 1/11) isn't a typical track.  Could happen I suppose, but I don't remember seeing too many of those.

If you aren't, then you're not a true met. Seriously though, all guidance must be considered. That does not mean you look at any particular models for a solution. They are tools to be incorporated into analyses. People have to remember that.

 

eta: "You" in reference to anyone looking at the models

[Ji]

What an epic boring 12z GFS run. 

we dont get snow when the 12z GFS shows an epic awesome run so whats the difference

[Kat]

You're really an optimist.

[WEATHER53]

Some type of coastal between 10-12th with some source of cold air even if poorly located.That is really all that we we know up until game time

[BTRWx]

Some type of coastal between 10-12th with some source of cold air even if poorly located.That is really all that we we know up until game time

For better or worse, we're no where near having any particular scenario...yet

[87storms]

Some type of coastal between 10-12th with some source of cold air even if poorly located.That is really all that we we know up until game time

What's good about this time of year is that we can seek out a good storm track first instead of having to pray for a huge blocking high.

[psuhoffman]

I don't think the first 2 systems have looked even remotely good for a while now. When the first idea came up, wave 1 tracked east with strong hp above it. As soon as wave 1 became a relatively slow moving cutter through the mid west the wheels kinda fell off. For the last 3 days or so there has been virtually no sign of even marginal HP to the north for wave 2. 

 

As good as the ens mslp have looked for wave 2, there have been no signs of it being a snow storm for the cities. 

When things started to go downhill for threats 1 and 2 I wasn't too surprised or disappointed because models often rush a pattern change, and we are coming from such a mess I figured its reasonable for the cold to take some time to get entrenched.  As said before we do way better in this type pattern when the cold is in place in front of an STJ system.  The last 24 hours I have noticed something that does trouble me some and that is a divergence starting between the GFS and Euro in the day 10+ range.  The euro still is advertising a good pattern in the 10-20 day period and a good window of opportunity.  The GFS has begun to continue to "push back" the cold getting in, even one run advertising another cutter right behind the 11th storm, and some runs never really establish a good pattern and keep the trough axis too far to our west.  I tend to trust the euro more then the GFS at this point for long range but I would like to see signs in the next few days that the GEFS is coming around towards the EPS on this. 

[BTRWx]

You're really an optimist.

Hopefully that will be all of us in coming weeks.

[psuhoffman]

Some type of coastal between 10-12th with some source of cold air even if poorly located.That is really all that we we know up until game time

These are the types of comments we see when things are not going well... lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

If you aren't, then you're not a true met. Seriously though, all guidance must be considered. That does not mean you look at any particular models for a solution. They are tools to be incorporated into analyses. People have to remember that.

Thanks for the lecture.

 

You're right, I'm not.  Are you?

 

Good luck with your analysis.  I hate to break the news to you.........you can do all of the analysis you want, but it won't make it snow.

[BTRWx]

When things started to go downhill for threats 1 and 2 I wasn't too surprised or disappointed because models often rush a pattern change, and we are coming from such a mess I figured its reasonable for the cold to take some time to get entrenched.  As said before we do way better in this type pattern when the cold is in place in front of an STJ system.  The last 24 hours I have noticed something that does trouble me some and that is a divergence starting between the GFS and Euro in the day 10+ range.  The euro still is advertising a good pattern in the 10-20 day period and a good window of opportunity.  The GFS has begun to continue to "push back" the cold getting in, even one run advertising another cutter right behind the 11th storm, and some runs never really establish a good pattern and keep the trough axis too far to our west.  I tend to trust the euro more then the GFS at this point for long range but I would like to see signs in the next few days that the GEFS is coming around towards the EPS on this. 

Very true.