BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 For those of you without the book, definitely consider getting a copy. Here are some of my own notes written last year. Northeast Snowstorm Development Criteria Teleconnections El Nino Negative NAOTransitional NAO periods Upper cutoff High between Newfoundland and Iceland Typically closer to Iceland than Greenland Areas of Highest Snowfall ~100 miles west of storm track and maximum vorticity Track of low level jet streak can infer largest snowfall When tracking Low, 850 hpa better used to determine max snowfall Types of Systems Miller B systems develop secondary LowsSome Clipper systems will transfer circulation to secondary coastal Low Miller A systems develop along frontal boundaries Most classic snowstorms have some Miller A and Miller B criteria Atmospheric Patterns Occasionally during weather pattern transitions Decreasing wavelength tendencies between upper level trough and ridge axes Northwest to Southeast vorticity max tendency Slower moving systems during late winter or early spring Also higher chance of amplified jet-stream for blocking 1020 to 1055 hpa High originating over Canada Primary High tends to develop under confluence upwind of upper level trough Tracks eastward toward Ontario and Quebec Sometimes secondary High develops near New England or Southeast Canada while primary High is over North Central U.S. If secondary High develops north of southeastward progressing primary High, Mid-Atlantic may transition from snow to rain Change in trough axis from positive to negative Merging troughs Meridionally separated jet-streams Conditions 48 Hours Prior to Cyclogenesis Building upper ridge over west coast and amplifying trough east of the Rockies Strong short-wave disturbance over southwest U.S. Usually associated with upper level vortex over Quebec, Newfoundland, or Nova Scotia Leads to confluence over northeast U.S. or southeast Canada Upper trough over eastern Canada to usher in cold air Climatological ridge over Atlantic Ocean Conditions 24 Hours Prior to Cyclogenesis Jet streaks Polar jet-streak over Northeast Subtropical jet-streak over Southeast Large increase in upper level wind speeds NW low level wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Elevation snowstorm would really make sense as we head into a favorable pattern. Will need a lot of help given the setup here in the lowlands even with the EPS. True. I do still like the timing of where we're at for just enough wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Whenever we have these two storm setups one always becomes dominant and the timing never works out the way the models think beyond 4 days. Expect continued changes. I bet by this weekend things will look very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 MSLP panels do look great but digging through the ind members show all kinds of temp problems and few snow storms in the mix. Looks better nw like Winwxluvr land but right now it looks pretty rough for the cities. Lots of lead time still of course. IMO this pattern looks really good for the northern MA and NE. If the idea on some of the ensembles of the PNA semi collapsing but the AO and NAO holding negative is right it's a best case scenario because it should prevent suppression. That may be bad news for places in the southern MA mid south and SE because the storm track will go to their north. But it should ensure suppression as a lower risk for DCA PHL NYC BOS. Obviously if the NAO goes crazy west based suppression even in a somewhat collapsed +PNA could still occur but I don't see a violently west -NAO at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's the Scriptures of NE snowstorms. Chapters 4, 5, and 7 were most informative to me, w/ Ch 4 being the most. Kocin 4: 1-20 are the best, IMO. Too bad the Great Lakes are still wide open, though that could hopefully change in the next week. Any air mass moving over them would moderate by about 5 - 7 degrees which, in these marginal temp situations, is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Is this the book of the month thread now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Is this the book of the month thread now? 100% relevant source. No other like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 18z gfs basically has zero inches of modeled snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 18z gfs basically has zero inches of modeled snow for us That might mean opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 18z gfs basically has zero inches of modeled snow for us I've got a feeling that will change on the overnight runs. 18z GFS was real close for us on the 10th and that was a storm for us on the EPS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I've got a feeling that will change on the overnight runs. 18z GFS was real close for us on the 10th and that was a storm for us on the EPS today. I agree with this. I am not convinced the 10th is a done deal with rain and warmth. 0z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Can an expert confirm or not confirm that the 18z GEFS for Jan. 10-11 look pretty good for the MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Can an expert confirm or not confirm that the 18z GEFS for Jan. 10-11 look pretty good for the MA? I'm not an expert by any means but while the mean supports a coastal, there's no cold air in place that suggests snow for the cities. I still think, at the moment, best chance for snow out of this is interior, but lots of time for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Can an expert confirm or not confirm that the 18z GEFS for Jan. 10-11 look pretty good for the MA? I don't know if I'm one for your criteria, but I can clearly see that the 2m freezing line does not roll through D.C. until several hours after any storm system. Maybe a very slight improvement with temps, but still a long way until something good from the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I'm not an expert by any means but while the mean supports a coastal, there's no cold air in place that suggests snow for the cities. I still think, at the moment, best chance for snow out of this is interior, but lots of time for that to change. Agreed. Just beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 #2 is there, but a whiff, on the GFS op. Looks a bit better, though... Perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It's colder. Nice spot this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The 'Wes' Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The euro really has my interest. Next weekend is very close to a classic cad event, but primarily in the mountains for now. Even though the second system is rainy, the entire euro run looks at least a little colder than 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 2nd system is still a cutter. Not an inspiring run. The op models refuse to give us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 2nd system is still a cutter. Not an inspiring run. The op models refuse to give us snow Instead of mid to upper 50s from 12z it's closer to right around 50 for 0z on the 11th before temps later crash. That's a big difference for 1 run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Instead of mid to upper 50s from 12z it's closer to right around 50 for 0z on the 11th before temps later crash. That's a big difference for 1 run! lol..its still 18 degrees from snow. Anyway...for storm 2, it sounds like we need the perfect track and even that is not guaranteed to give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 lol..its still 18 degrees from snow. Anyway...for storm 2, it sounds like we need the perfect track and even that is not guaranteed to give us snow. If each couple runs trend 2 degrees colder on average then that would be just enough. Those numbers in the 50s would be daily highs. Anyone else want to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice signal on the 0z EPS for an EC low on the 17/18, lining up with the GEFS window too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nice signal on the 0z EPS for an EC low on the 17/18, lining up with the GEFS window too. what do you think about the 11th based on the runs from last night/this morning? It seems like even with a great track just colder rain here in the lowlands would be on tap until you get to around I-81. but still time for change I suppose just not sure it will be the change we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 what do you think about the 11th based on the runs from last night/this morning? It seems like even with a great track just colder rain here in the lowlands would be on tap until you get to around I-81. but still time for change I suppose just not sure it will be the change we want. I haven't looked at it in too much detail but while the mean was east of the OP, there were few if any snowy solutions for the city in there. Even for HGR, I eyeballed 3-4 members that gave them over 2" from that storm. The lack of a H and a less than ideal antecedent air mass means the track has to be perfect for the cities and even then, we'd have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I haven't looked at it in too much detail but while the mean was east of the OP, there were few if any snowy solutions for the city in there. Even for HGR, I eyeballed 3-4 members that gave them over 2" from that storm. The lack of a H and a less than ideal antecedent air mass means the track has to be perfect for the cities and even then, we'd have issues. Folks should probably start focusing on the period beginning around the 15th. The pattern just isnt going to be"right" yet for the upcoming event(s). As others have posted, and most should know from experience, we need the cold in place first and locked in most of the time. Both the EPS and GEFS have a beauty of a west based -NAO in the LR with a cold trough in the east. There should be chances with storms tracking underneath(maybe even a suppressed one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Ensembles took a step back, but they've been oscillating at that time frame like never before (in a figurative sense). I'm not ready to lean one way or another just yet for anything next weekend or beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Ensembles took a step back, but they've been oscillating at that time frame like never before (in a figurative sense). I'm not ready to lean one way or another just yet for anything next weekend or beyond. I disagree. The Euro ens mean 500 pattern for the 16 through 18 looks really interesting as is an above average look. That still seems to be the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I disagree. The Euro ens mean 500 pattern for the 16 through 18 looks really interesting as is an above average look. That still seems to be the window. True. I meant the week prior for the first 2 systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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