Ian Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 We're into the time of year a good track is all that really matters if you want something to watch. Can still get screwed but another issue is we often look for a 'perfect pattern' even with plenty of good storms that happen outside of them. Lack of cold is certainly an issue early.. pattern shakeup maybe but looks kind of similar. Of course there's a big cold dump advertised after which seemingly will happen to some degree. I wonder how much we're going to just keep seeing cold then warmish storms though. Kind of a strong Nino trademark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Man, euro really pumps up some sick height anoms in the ao/nao domains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Man, euro really pumps up some sick height anoms in the ao/nao domains. Sure does. GEFS continues to look good in the LR. We just have to be patient. With that kind of block, if it verifies, mean storm track should be more to our liking. Agree with psuhoffman's post above. We just aren't there yet, so likely we are going to have to endure a couple warmish rainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 it will be interesting to see how this plays out with the new GFS upgrades. Looking forward to this week...despite the outcome. Nut What new upgrades? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I think we are excited because the h5 setup looks good but those analogs dont account for all the times we had a similar setup and it failed. The problem to me is there is no cold in front yet. The shot early this week is transient then we warm as the trough axis is still to our west. That creates a few problems. These storms want to ride the baroclinic zone along the thermal boundary. So that wants to take them more west. Then even if the storm tracks to our south it's a stj system is there is no connection to the cold until it's north of us. We really need to wait until the cold gets in and the block is established to hold it then see what comes at us from the stj. Until then it probably would take a fluke and perfect track/intensity to get anything.So I have to wonder how long that's gonna take! Perhaps middle of the month or later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What new upgrades? my apologies...GEFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Heard eps looks fairly good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Very nice run of thr eps right through the end. Very blocky and nice trough axis. As someone said earlier (ian?), if we don't score something it's just bad luck. A good # of storms showing up d11-15. Mean snowfall up to 3" in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Mostly an offshore clustering for the op inside runner (storm dos) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Mostly an offshore clustering for the op inside runner (storm dos) Call me crazy but that looks encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 ITS IDEAL The next "best threat" window is always 300+ hours away Call me crazy but that looks encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Based on the 12z EPS, Snowshoe should have a good MLK weekend. Mean snowfall out there is ~9" through D15. I'm sure they'll welcome that for the three-day weekend crowds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12Z EURO EPS JAN11 WOOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 been on this dec 29 patterns first ALWAYS then models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 whichn is why the op euro makes no sense Positive on the Euro: No GL low! Negative on the Euro: Same result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 MSLP panels do look great but digging through the ind members show all kinds of temp problems and few snow storms in the mix. Looks better nw like Winwxluvr land but right now it looks pretty rough for the cities. Lots of lead time still of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 MSLP panels do look great but digging through the ind members show all kinds of temp problems and few snow storms in the mix. Looks better nw like Winwxluvr land but right now it looks pretty rough for the cities. Lots of lead time still of course. Elevation storm - what else is new, Bob But yes plenty of time. I'm just glad it's not 75 degrees anymore. I am NOT a member of the "if it's not going to snow let it be warm" crew. I want winter to be winter-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12Z EURO EPS JAN11 WOOF 12zeps180.jpg 186eps.jpg I thought that looked awfully close with the 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Def still looks more like an interior event on the Euro ens given lack of a lot of cold plus in many cases the closeness to the coast etc. But I wouldn't bet we know the temp picture just yet. That first sys is helping warm it up on some runs for one and it seems to be less of an event overall today than in prior. We don't need major cold in Jan either just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Def still looks more like an interior event on the Euro ens given lack of a lot of cold plus in many cases the closeness to the coast etc. But I wouldn't bet we know the temp picture just yet. That first sys is helping warm it up on some runs for one and it seems to be less of an event overall today than in prior. We don't need major cold in Jan either just enough. That's for sure - pretty mundane cold can perform - but as is always the case we still can go wrong too many ways. Also general question that seemed to fit best in this thread (Ian or anyone can answer) I'm just now getting into thumbing through my KU book. Definitely realizing there's a ton of content in there...is there any specific parts that you would focus on if you HAD to read a certain part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That's for sure - pretty mundane cold can perform - but as is always the case we still can go wrong too many ways. Also general question that seemed to fit best in this thread (Ian or anyone can answer) I'm just now getting into thumbing through my KU book. Definitely realizing there's a ton of content in there...is there any specific parts that you would focus on if you HAD to read a certain part? Which one is that? Google keeps giving me the University. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Which one is that? Google keeps giving me the University. http://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-Volume-Set/dp/1878220640 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 http://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-Volume-Set/dp/1878220640 Thought so! Let me pull mine out to see where I highlighted stuff. I got mine last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Our friend, the great lakes low returns on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Thought so! Let me pull mine out to see where I highlighted stuff. I got mine last year. I got mine in 2011 and it's largely been sitting dormant on a shelf. I broke it out after Bob Chill and the others have been talking so much about the pattern. It's a ton of content and it's overwhelming to me! I know generals like what general patterns to look at for H5 but beyond that I'm pretty stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I got mine in 2011 and it's largely been sitting dormant on a shelf. I broke it out after Bob Chill and the others have been talking so much about the pattern. It's a ton of content and it's overwhelming to me! I know generals like what general patterns to look at for H5 but beyond that I'm pretty stupid No judgment from me. I'll keep editing this post as I find new topics... The Southern Oscillation pg 28-35 Cyclone Paths and Redevelopment pg 46-78 (lots of pictures) n hours prior to heavy snow development pg 85-131 (multiple good sections) That's the meat of the easier to read stuff. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The trailing low on the 12th can still bring us some snow, we need the northern stream to get out of the way and the southern stream to cut off. Since the high is too far west to deliver a quick cold shot and there is too much ridging over the Bahamas for a strong negative tilt over Georgia, this will be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's the Scriptures of NE snowstorms. Chapters 4, 5, and 7 were most informative to me, w/ Ch 4 being the most. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's the Scriptures of NE snowstorms. Chapters 4, 5, and 7 were most informative to me, w/ Ch 4 being the most. Completely agree about Ch.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Elevation snowstorm would really make sense as we head into a favorable pattern. Will need a lot of help given the setup here in the lowlands even with the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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