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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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12z GFS looks a bit colder for the weekend system. Rain for everyone but looks like a bit more frozen for far western areas verbatim @ hr 138. 1007mb low off the GA/FL coast @ 174. 

 

Eta: "storm 2" is a scraper.

 

Post intended for discussion only--not a statement on how right the model is or a forecast :P

it will be interesting to see how this plays out with the new GFS upgrades.  Looking forward to this week...despite the outcome.

 

Nut

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All normal caveats apply (OP run at 348 hours, blah blah blah) but a coastal on the GFS 12z that coincides with the next period to watch per the GEFS (Jan 17-19th). It'll change a million times from here but a period to watch as long as the ensembles keep supporting that timeframe.

Four opportunities coming up. Can we really go 0 for 4?

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There is a lot going on wrt the pieces on the board. Ops are going to be all over the place for a while as they try to handle what goes where and (as Tip says in the NE forum) what's fact and what's fiction. Just another run of another model. Kinda interesting to watch all this play out, as frustrating as it can be.

The thing that sucks is wave 1 just sits and spins in the upper mw. I guess blocking is bad sometimes lol.

12z gfs had decent separation between the sw's. And it was evident fairly early in the run. That's good. But wave 1 is a midlevel and surface wrecker. Seems like a low prob event attm. Euro ens say no snow for us and even backed off d10 - 15.

I found the 12z gfs at hr 348 acceptable though.

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All normal caveats apply (OP run at 348 hours, blah blah blah) but a coastal on the GFS 12z that coincides with the next period to watch per the GEFS (Jan 17-19th). It'll change a million times from here but a period to watch as long as the ensembles keep supporting that timeframe.  

The next "best threat" window is always 300+ hours away ;)

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Something else potentially going for us in the 17-19th window is a rising AO (something Ian, Bob, Wes, WxWatcher, and others have alluded to regarding our bigger storms).  

I doubt that solution is set yet at this point.

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All normal caveats apply (OP run at 348 hours, blah blah blah) but a coastal on the GFS 12z that coincides with the next period to watch per the GEFS (Jan 17-19th). It'll change a million times from here but a period to watch as long as the ensembles keep supporting that timeframe.  

 

I could say the same thing about the same timeframe for 2023 and probably have the same odds of something happening.

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I could say the same thing about the same timeframe for 2023 and probably have the same odds of something happening.

Chill out, thats about the best signal you can hope for on ensembles 2 weeks out. I will definitely take my chances in that pattern vs a random year.

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The next "best threat" window is always 300+ hours away ;)

The fact that we have any threats at all to track in January, and there are several, is an enormous improvement over the December pattern.  Even good winters involve a bit of impatience, but Ian's analog to warning criteria events gives me continued hope for 1/12 storm.

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Unfortunately, no 50/50 low on eps

Well it's not perfect so maybe only a 4.5" event :P

Plus I'd wait to see this kinds of details. First storm could be meaningful in determining potential with second. If there are two..

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Well it's not perfect so maybe only a 4.5" event :P

Plus I'd wait to see this kinds of details. First storm could be meaningful in determining potential with second. If there are two..

I think our fate wrt to #2 rests with #1. We probably need #1 to wind up since we need some cold air if we are to have a chance. In the end, we probably need more than what the pattern can deliver. But since there's nothing else to follow, we hope and follow.
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Ian, you have been quite bullish on this upcoming 2 weeks. I like it.

Evolution has worked out nicely. I think this window showed up at considerable range. Perhaps jumped the gun a bit a few weeks ago with Jan 5-10ish as it seems it's more like Jan 10-20, tho close enough. :P I'd still be quite surprised if we get through the whole period -- if modeling is even halfway right -- without some snow, perhaps decent snow.

 

It will however be interesting to see if it breaks down or keeps on chugging. I do think we'll see at least a bit of a breakdown for a while though Feb climo is so dominantly wet/cool that it's hard to totally imagine it all disappearing for too long. There were hints in the depth of the -AO drop relatively early, but the configuration and intensity showing up ahead certainly would seem to argue for more blocking down the road. Plenty of questions... e.g., Feb 73 sucked and was cold. My winter call was a silly guess and I ran away from the group though I did actually lean toward the not very snowy end. I'd be surprised if I was right with that call when this is all over at this point. :P

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I think our fate wrt to #2 rests with #1. We probably need #1 to wind up since we need some cold air if we are to have a chance. In the end, we probably need more than what the pattern can deliver. But since there's nothing else to follow, we hope and follow.

annnnd Euro runs way inland. usual euro too amped bias. ;)

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Should set the table for wave 3

 

#always10daysaway

It's not that terrible for the range. Minor changes needed.. tho the pre-storm torch is a bit torchy. Actually somewhat serious on Euro bias in this range.

 

Wave three could be the ticket. ha.

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It's not that terrible for the range. Minor changes needed.. tho the pre-storm torch is a bit torchy. Actually somewhat serious on Euro bias in this range.

 

Wave three could be the ticket. ha.

 

The thing that sucks is no guidance is favorable with wave 1 setting the table. It's clearing it instead. Even though it would rain buckets, it would be interesting to have a sub 990 crossing central PA like the euro is showing. 

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Euro is not going the right direction. Slower to move wave 1 out and quicker with wave 2. Need that to be the other way around.

I think we are excited because the h5 setup looks good but those analogs dont account for all the times we had a similar setup and it failed. The problem to me is there is no cold in front yet. The shot early this week is transient then we warm as the trough axis is still to our west. That creates a few problems. These storms want to ride the baroclinic zone along the thermal boundary. So that wants to take them more west. Then even if the storm tracks to our south it's a stj system is there is no connection to the cold until it's north of us. We really need to wait until the cold gets in and the block is established to hold it then see what comes at us from the stj. Until then it probably would take a fluke and perfect track/intensity to get anything.
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