mappy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Rain for storm #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Great lakes low screwjob looking like for storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Closer to the original solution we fell in love with. Has heavy snow very close to NYC. Just need the model to continue to trend closer and farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Great lakes low screwjob looking like for storm 2If you look at the vort panels and compare to previous runs there is distinct separation between the 2 shortwaves this run. Pretty important if we stand a chance with wave 2. Wave 1 is prob toast. The bigger the gap between the 2 the better chance for us. 12z gfs was a big improvement there regardless. Resolving the pac energy is crazy tough at this lead for any model. It was a good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That GL low just sat there and spun it's little heart out while screwing up our air mass. Kick that out sooner and we'd be in business. Sounds so easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 My phone just autocorrected GLL to FML... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What the hell is everybody talking about March for? Let's analyze what's right in front of us, which is a pretty damn promising pattern for the next few weeks! We may not get the HECS everybody hopes for, but a few inches looks promising, and probably more likely than 0" over the next 3 weeks. There will be plenty of time to talk about March, but now is not the time. I like your thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The coastal on the 11th doesn't look too bad. A little colder would be nice obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That GL low just sat there and spun it's little heart out while screwing up our air mass. Kick that out sooner and we'd be in business. Sounds so easy! Wouldn't take much, parts of PA are at or below freezing, not far above the boarder. The snow is close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Wouldn't take much, parts of PA are at or below freezing, not far above the boarder. The snow is close! Yup, for an OP run in the midst of all this energy and multiple waves, I thought this was a step in the right direction as Bob alluded to. You could tell the 11th low was going to 'do better' this run since there was spacing after the first vort. Live to see another model run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 If you look at the vort panels and compare to previous runs there is distinct separation between the 2 shortwaves this run. Pretty important if we stand a chance with wave 2. Wave 1 is prob toast. The bigger the gap between the 2 the better chance for us. 12z gfs was a big improvement there regardless. Resolving the pac energy is crazy tough at this lead for any model. It was a good step. Not much data out there in the north central Pacific to be had either Bob correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 So, how many different scenarios has the GFS now spit out for the Jan 9-13 time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 That low on the 11th explodes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Seems like every GFS run explodes a low off the east coast around 204hrs. It's the GFSs latest bad habit. That low on the 11th explodes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Not much data out there in the north central Pacific to be had either Bob correct? I don't worry about that stuff too much. Satellites do a good job with timing in general. That's the only thing to discuss right now. A congealed and/or closely spaced evolution isn't going to do it regardless of strength of ind waves. Wave 1 seems likely to screw up midlevels for a time. The more space we can get between the 2 is the only tangible thing to focus on at this range. More space the better. Seems like a low prob event right now but wouldn't take a miracle to get right. Any trends towards more space are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Bob & others, anyone a bit concerned on how 'odd' for lack of a better word the GFS handles 500mb shortwaves. It just seems extremely different than the old GFS. I mean tonight's solution Day 9-10 is a joke the way it handled the lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Bob & others, anyone a bit concerned on how 'odd' for lack of a better word the GFS handles 500mb shortwaves. It just seems extremely different than the old GFS. I mean tonight's solution Day 9-10 is a joke the way it handled the lows. I don't think much about ops beyond d7. The spacing I was referring to in my previous post was d5-6. Beyond d7 there is too much error growth and chaos to drill down into any specifics. Same with the euro op. D7-10 period isn't worth over thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 00z EURO @ 186 hours has a deepening low over SC, but the freezing line is near the Great Lakes. No 50/50 and a big ULL in N- Central U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GEFS IMO really hinting at the 15-18th as a time frame to keep an eye out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Good news on EURO though, instead of the 12z ridiculousness of sending that big ULL into the Northeast, it looks like it may deepen and head East, which could help enhance a NAO down the line. EURO really deepening that sucker @ 216 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Positive on the Euro: No GL low! Negative on the Euro: Same result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 06z gfs Rain wave 1 No GLL on wave 2, but storm further inland. Rain to snow, probably mostly rain. Another system after, more rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Gonna keep saying it but it is better to have marginal cold air around AND storms than nothing. The particulars won't get worked out for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The difference at h5 between 00z and 6z gfs is ridiculous. Just reinforces the notion of not trusting operational runs beyond day 5....maybe even day 3 in this pattern. Euro is not perfect either but at least you can pick out the same features/energy between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looking at 500 @ 240 on the EPS, do we want to see that trough axis settle deeper? Tilted more to the SW for us to really be in the game? ETA: larger scale image Considering the fact that the Euro completely rejuvenated its qpf in one run, I like what I see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Seems the Euro at 192 would be good for western areas. 995 in eastern nc with 850's below freezing. Can anybody with access fine tune it for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Gonna keep saying it but it is better to have marginal cold air around AND storms than nothing. The particulars won't get worked out for days Preaching to the choir on that one. I'm right there with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Seems the Euro at 192 would be good for western areas. 995 in eastern nc with 850's below freezing. Can anybody with access fine tune it for me?In addition to what was said about temps the precip is kinda lame too. The heavy stuff stays east of 95 where temps are torching. Only light stuff gets west. Perhaps if the heavier qpf made it further inland it might cool the column more. Typical stj system cut off from the northern stream where precip is all rain. We do much better when the stj is crashing into already established cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Bob & others, anyone a bit concerned on how 'odd' for lack of a better word the GFS handles 500mb shortwaves. It just seems extremely different than the old GFS. I mean tonight's solution Day 9-10 is a joke the way it handled the lows. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 06z gfs Rain wave 1 No GLL on wave 2, but storm further inland. Rain to snow, probably mostly rain. Another system after, more rain Godzilla Nino ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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