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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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The GEFS ensemble mean look for around the 16th is a pretty good one.  The strongest positive height anomalies over Greenland and a nice strong negative to its south.  The mean even has a southern stream impulse coming across the gulf states.  I've never like the 9th and thought the 11th migh still be too early but do think we have a window of opportunity as late in week 2 or early in week 3.

 

post-70-0-42186400-1451760598_thumb.png

 

 

Below I've attached a composite of 8 inch or greater dc snowstorms, not all as I haven't updated it for 2009-2010 but enough to show the look over Greenland and just to its south.  The 2009-2010 storms had the same greenland maritimes look.   Note that the big storms had a stronger negative over the south than the composite so it's far from a perfect match.  However,  there is a negative over the south albeit a weak one.  Root for it to be stronger and for the rest of the pattern to look like the GEFS ensemble mean.   Of course that far out, the mean could be garbage so also look at the Euro ensembles when it come out.  I'd rate our chances for snow during the 5 day period centered around the 16th as being a tad above normal.   This time of year that's all you can hope for.  

 

post-70-0-29043600-1451761141_thumb.gif

 

 

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Agree with WES, GEFS 348 looks promising, There's is a low height anomaly over south of the Canadian maritime and a second one over the MS valley.   The entire window from the 12th-18th looks favorable for something, after that, the EPO  breaks down.

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Agree with WES, GEFS 348 looks promising, There's is a low height anomaly over south of the Canadian maritime and a second one over the MS valley.   The entire window from the 12th-18th looks favorable for something, after that, the EPO  breaks down.

The GFS can't even keep a storm track within 400 miles from run to run and you're counting on a day 10-15 solution to deliver? Good luck with that

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Oh you know, the usual suspects taking every model run verbatim for a 7-10 day solution. Nothing new.

In other news, euro ensembles still show a nice coastal mean for the 11th.

MSLP is deceiving irt snow chances. Very few show snow. Temp problems. Stupid low that drives nw of us a few days before must be wrecking the midlevels.

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The GFS can't even keep a storm track within 400 miles from run to run and you're counting on a day 10-15 solution to deliver? Good luck with that

That's why looking at ensembles anomalies  and the overall pattern is better than looking at model runs.  Very unlikely that there will be + height anomalies over the Canadian maritime in that time-frame even with a 400 mile swing.

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Though the gfs run ain't impressive re snowfall, it's at least showing one hell of a snowpack build in eastern Canada, which will help us down the road.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016010218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384

down the road? Winter is almost over. We have 6 weeks left basically. After President day, avg temp is about 50

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Nice plots Ian.

Some general rules of thumb in these parts seem to apply to what we're seeing right now. It always takes longer for a good storm setup to show up in medium range than when long range first starts tossing the idea out. And more often than not we get our storms after conducive pattern has been in place for a little while. It's really easy to lose sight of this (I'm as guilty as anyone).

I'm not at my PC so I can't post graphs but our big storms tend to happen when the AO is rising. Which makes sense irt what it means with sensible wx.

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Nice plots Ian.

Some general rules of thumb in these parts seem to apply to what we're seeing right now. It always takes longer for a good storm setup to show up in medium range than when long range first starts tossing the idea out. And more often than not we get our storms after conducive pattern has been in place for a little while. It's really easy to lose sight of this (I'm as guilty as anyone).

I'm not at my PC so I can't post graphs but our big storms tend to happen when the AO is rising. Which makes sense irt what it means with sensible wx.

 

Absolutely - KU book has those charts and they are cool to look at. Even if the AO dropped after a given storm it was on the rise for the big ones it seems. 

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March has produced some nice snowfalls around here. I wouldn't say we have only 6 weeks. It's only the second day of January.

 

march can snow, but the last 2 years were an anomaly as far as that is concerned.  in most years, march is more spring'y than winter'y.

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I think March and December have similar snowfall averages. The difference is in our psychology - we're mentally ready for Spring at that point, and the snow seems to melt faster. Not to mention "sun angle" issues

March average temps are significantly higher so the melting is real. Generally, March is a pretty bad month for snow around here.

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March average temps are significantly higher so the melting is real. Generally, March is a pretty bad month for snow around here.

Lately it has been a cold/snow month. More so than December, which many folks just cant seem to accept...the first 2 weeks or so have rocked, the past 2 winters in particular. Most are too obsessed with sun angle, rapid melting, etc. Well yeah, it is basically Spring, and snow cover wont last, but so what? Just enjoy it for what it is.

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What the hell is everybody talking about March for?  Let's analyze what's right in front of us, which is a pretty damn promising pattern for the next few weeks!  We may not get the HECS everybody hopes for, but a few inches looks promising, and probably more likely than 0" over the next 3 weeks. There will be plenty of time to talk about March, but now is not the time.

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