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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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Euro ens backed off a bit on snow chances through the 12th. First shortwave looks mostly rainy. Big mixed bag for the second one. No additional clarity was offered with 0z suite.

I noticed at the end of the 0z GFS run, looks like a trough developing in the Pacific, with lower heights towards the GoA, and hints of higher heights back over the Aleutians. Euro ens similar? Hope this isn't early signs of the pattern breaking down/reverting back already lol.

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I noticed at the end of the 0z GFS run, looks like a trough developing in the Pacific, with lower heights towards the GoA, and hints of higher heights back over the Aleutians. Euro ens similar? Hope this isn't early signs of the pattern breaking down/reverting back already lol.

End of the eps run sill has ridging in nw Canada/AK and a cold trough in the east. But does show low heights moving eastward in the goa.

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End of the eps run sill has ridging in nw Canada/AK and a cold trough in the east. But does show low heights moving eastward in the goa.

Thanks. Good to see it still has a cold trough in the east. GEFS at the end of the run looks like it would be seasonable or a tad above in the east.

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6z GFS shows a Miller A for the 11th storm but it heads OTS off the NC coast.  Lots of cold air around thanks to the stage being set by the storm on the 9th.  Potential is there which is good for me at this point.  

 

For the WxBell subscribers here, do you know if there's any additional GEFS maps other than the "Energy Products" link?  I was hoping for a MSLP map but I can't find anything.  

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6z GFS shows a Miller A for the 11th storm but it heads OTS off the NC coast. Lots of cold air around thanks to the stage being set by the storm on the 9th. Potential is there which is good for me at this point.

For the WxBell subscribers here, do you know if there's any additional GEFS maps other than the "Energy Products" link? I was hoping for a MSLP map but I can't find anything.

I use tropical tidbits for that. Can't find it on wxbell either

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I use tropical tidbits for that. Can't find it on wxbell either

Probably his bias against the gfs at work there. He bashes it so much probably doesn't see the need to worry about it. He also likes the h5 way more then surface and I agree that the h5 is more important but I think often he is too dismissive of what guidance is saying at the surface because he is stuck on what should happen based on analogs to the h5. There are many legit reasons why the surface could be different then a past event with similar h5 based on subtle changes we can't perceive easily. He busts a lot because of his neglect of this.
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Probably his bias against the gfs at work there. He bashes it so much probably doesn't see the need to worry about it. He also likes the h5 way more then surface and I agree that the h5 is more important but I think often he is too dismissive of what guidance is saying at the surface because he is stuck on what should happen based on analogs to the h5. There are many legit reasons why the surface could be different then a past event with similar h5 based on subtle changes we can't perceive easily. He busts a lot because of his neglect of this.

I think it's somewhere I've seen images of it. More that the model page is a mess of organization even if it rocks overall.

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I use tropical tidbits for that. Can't find it on wxbell either

 

 

Nj2va, click the extratropical link. MSLP panels are there. For as nice as the endless maps are on wxbell, nav pretty much sucks. I use ewall and trop tids far more often for gefs stuff. Wxbell populates the fastest though

 

Thanks!  As good as Wxbell is, the organization is terrible (it's better than it used to be, though).  I always ignored the extratropical link as I figured it was only useful during Hurricane season.  I wish there was one page for each operational model and each ensemble, with drop downs, etc to choose whatever view you want.  It'd be so much easier that way.  

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Probably his bias against the gfs at work there. He bashes it so much probably doesn't see the need to worry about it. He also likes the h5 way more then surface and I agree that the h5 is more important but I think often he is too dismissive of what guidance is saying at the surface because he is stuck on what should happen based on analogs to the h5. There are many legit reasons why the surface could be different then a past event with similar h5 based on subtle changes we can't perceive easily. He busts a lot because of his neglect of this.

Oops?

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End of the eps run sill has ridging in nw Canada/AK and a cold trough in the east. But does show low heights moving eastward in the goa.

I wouldn't panick about it showing this though about low heights moving eastward because it wasn't yesterday but the day before it was showing something similar than it went back to keeping the cold pattern through the run. 

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I wouldn't panick about it showing this though about low heights moving eastward because it wasn't yesterday but the day before it was showing something similar than it went back to keeping the cold pattern through the run. 

There's still a long way to go before anything fully comes together if it were to.

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Pattern still looks really nice through the end of the run on GEFS. Blocky, eastern trough, and looks active.

 

Great news - at this range it's really all we can ask for. Even if the models don't serve specific threats - the pattern is the important thing for now. 

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A cluster of good coastals at the end of the gefs run. Enough that the MSLP plots show it. That's not common. Overall it still looks like above normal chances for an event. But we will suffer through a big rainer first. Gefs very supportive of the op. Hopefully the spacing starts changing with the 2 waves.

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