Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Euro ens backed off a bit on snow chances through the 12th. First shortwave looks mostly rainy. Big mixed bag for the second one. No additional clarity was offered with 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Euro ens backed off a bit on snow chances through the 12th. First shortwave looks mostly rainy. Big mixed bag for the second one. No additional clarity was offered with 0z suite. I noticed at the end of the 0z GFS run, looks like a trough developing in the Pacific, with lower heights towards the GoA, and hints of higher heights back over the Aleutians. Euro ens similar? Hope this isn't early signs of the pattern breaking down/reverting back already lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I noticed at the end of the 0z GFS run, looks like a trough developing in the Pacific, with lower heights towards the GoA, and hints of higher heights back over the Aleutians. Euro ens similar? Hope this isn't early signs of the pattern breaking down/reverting back already lol. End of the eps run sill has ridging in nw Canada/AK and a cold trough in the east. But does show low heights moving eastward in the goa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 End of the eps run sill has ridging in nw Canada/AK and a cold trough in the east. But does show low heights moving eastward in the goa. Thanks. Good to see it still has a cold trough in the east. GEFS at the end of the run looks like it would be seasonable or a tad above in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 6z GFS shows a Miller A for the 11th storm but it heads OTS off the NC coast. Lots of cold air around thanks to the stage being set by the storm on the 9th. Potential is there which is good for me at this point. For the WxBell subscribers here, do you know if there's any additional GEFS maps other than the "Energy Products" link? I was hoping for a MSLP map but I can't find anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 6z GFS shows a Miller A for the 11th storm but it heads OTS off the NC coast. Lots of cold air around thanks to the stage being set by the storm on the 9th. Potential is there which is good for me at this point. For the WxBell subscribers here, do you know if there's any additional GEFS maps other than the "Energy Products" link? I was hoping for a MSLP map but I can't find anything. I use tropical tidbits for that. Can't find it on wxbell either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I use tropical tidbits for that. Can't find it on wxbell eitherProbably his bias against the gfs at work there. He bashes it so much probably doesn't see the need to worry about it. He also likes the h5 way more then surface and I agree that the h5 is more important but I think often he is too dismissive of what guidance is saying at the surface because he is stuck on what should happen based on analogs to the h5. There are many legit reasons why the surface could be different then a past event with similar h5 based on subtle changes we can't perceive easily. He busts a lot because of his neglect of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Probably his bias against the gfs at work there. He bashes it so much probably doesn't see the need to worry about it. He also likes the h5 way more then surface and I agree that the h5 is more important but I think often he is too dismissive of what guidance is saying at the surface because he is stuck on what should happen based on analogs to the h5. There are many legit reasons why the surface could be different then a past event with similar h5 based on subtle changes we can't perceive easily. He busts a lot because of his neglect of this. I think it's somewhere I've seen images of it. More that the model page is a mess of organization even if it rocks overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Nj2va, click the extratropical link. MSLP panels are there. For as nice as the endless maps are on wxbell, nav pretty much sucks. I use ewall and trop tids far more often for gefs stuff. Wxbell populates the fastest though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I use tropical tidbits for that. Can't find it on wxbell either Nj2va, click the extratropical link. MSLP panels are there. For as nice as the endless maps are on wxbell, nav pretty much sucks. I use ewall and trop tids far more often for gefs stuff. Wxbell populates the fastest though Thanks! As good as Wxbell is, the organization is terrible (it's better than it used to be, though). I always ignored the extratropical link as I figured it was only useful during Hurricane season. I wish there was one page for each operational model and each ensemble, with drop downs, etc to choose whatever view you want. It'd be so much easier that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Probably his bias against the gfs at work there. He bashes it so much probably doesn't see the need to worry about it. He also likes the h5 way more then surface and I agree that the h5 is more important but I think often he is too dismissive of what guidance is saying at the surface because he is stuck on what should happen based on analogs to the h5. There are many legit reasons why the surface could be different then a past event with similar h5 based on subtle changes we can't perceive easily. He busts a lot because of his neglect of this. Oops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 12z GFS further north with the low around hr 144, soaking rain Friday Eve. Hr 159 998mb like 25 miles east of CBBT, DC gets 2"+ of mild rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That is such a pretty track on the 12z GFS for the 8th. Alas. edit - 4" of rain. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That is such a pretty track on the 12z GFS for the 8th. Alas Too bad it is not cold enough to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That is such a pretty track on the 12z GFS for the 8th. Alas. edit - 4" of rain. Perfect. LOL I was sensing the sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sweet pattern change of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sweet pattern change of rain Baby steps. It's a colder rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 1/10 or 1/11 storm is still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 1/10 or 1/11 storm is still a possibility. So is a snowless winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That's 5 runs in a row of the gfs with different solutions. Sign me up for one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sweet pattern change of rainDon't worry. The models will show something completely different by tomorrow. Probably a lakes cutter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 End of the eps run sill has ridging in nw Canada/AK and a cold trough in the east. But does show low heights moving eastward in the goa. I wouldn't panick about it showing this though about low heights moving eastward because it wasn't yesterday but the day before it was showing something similar than it went back to keeping the cold pattern through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I wouldn't panick about it showing this though about low heights moving eastward because it wasn't yesterday but the day before it was showing something similar than it went back to keeping the cold pattern through the run. There's still a long way to go before anything fully comes together if it were to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Oops?I never looked in the tropical links so I stand corrected. I still stand by my critique of his neglect of surface progs in forecasting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Pattern still looks really nice through the end of the run on GEFS. Blocky, eastern trough, and looks active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Pattern still looks really nice through the end of the run on GEFS. Blocky, eastern trough, and looks active. I would say this is pretty active for you guys, most bullish GEFS run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Pattern still looks really nice through the end of the run on GEFS. Blocky, eastern trough, and looks active. Great news - at this range it's really all we can ask for. Even if the models don't serve specific threats - the pattern is the important thing for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 A cluster of good coastals at the end of the gefs run. Enough that the MSLP plots show it. That's not common. Overall it still looks like above normal chances for an event. But we will suffer through a big rainer first. Gefs very supportive of the op. Hopefully the spacing starts changing with the 2 waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think it's somewhere I've seen images of it. More that the model page is a mess of organization even if it rocks overall.Where do you get the euro analogs? Thought they were on sv but I don't see them anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Only positive is getting some decent snow-cover in NY and NE may help us if there is a marginal storm later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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