Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Screw it. I'll just post the 5h plot. Let everyone decide for themselves if it looks good or bad. High latitudes keep looking better every run but considering how much change needs to happen, it's a lot of work to get things right. 12zeps1.JPG As is, it looks good for some 39 degree rain events..but there are signs of global improvements.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I'd be most worried that whatever we are seeing is a relatively short window setting up. Also possible it'll become a more favorable pattern overall but we've still got a lot stacked against us. I imagine we'll be tracking a real threat for the broader region in the Jan 5-10 window or so though. We can't really count on EPO help at all this winter given the Nino strength...We need a -NAO..and not some bootleg one like for the February 2014 storm...We need a gigantic glowing red fat block sitting over the Davis Strait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I'd be most worried that whatever we are seeing is a relatively short window setting up. Also possible it'll become a more favorable pattern overall but we've still got a lot stacked against us. I imagine we'll be tracking a real threat for the broader region in the Jan 5-10 window or so though.I can envision the pattern coming around to something close to ideal around or right after NYD, only transient. After a fail with that 1st attempt, it gets decent for later January through late February/early March as Niño climo overpowers the conus. Not that I'm abandoning my belief that things get better starting 1/15, it's just the atmosphere often telegraphs what it's trying to do and fails before the reshuffle is completed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I can envision the pattern coming around to something close to ideal around or right after NYD, only transient. After a fail with that 1st attempt, it gets decent for later January through late February/early March as Niño climo overpowers the conus. Not that I'm abandoning my belief that things get better starting 1/15, it's just the atmosphere often telegraphs what it's trying to do and fails before the reshuffle is completed. This is sort of what occurred last year that first big cold shot then it moderated til around the 20th before the real change happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Screw it. I'll just post the 5h plot. Let everyone decide for themselves if it looks good or bad. High latitudes keep looking better every run but considering how much change needs to happen, it's a lot of work to get things right. 12zeps1.JPG move the red dot south west over Ohio and it will be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Wow, the 00z GFS @ 150 hrs is so remarkably different than the 18z GFS @ the same period. I mean, yeah, it is a model run at 6 days out, but I don't think I've ever seen a model show something that drastically different in 6 hours. That is insane. I've been looking at wx model runs for a long time and this is one of the biggest changes in one run that I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 That is a crazy change. 00z 144 hrs 18z 150 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Certainly not a positive one. Sux worse than before...and it wasn't that great at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 We can't really count on EPO help at all this winter given the Nino strength...We need a -NAO..and not some bootleg one like for the February 2014 storm...We need a gigantic glowing red fat block sitting over the Davis Strait... Yeah I'd rather see some cooperation there or at least with the AO before getting too excited about anything. Just looked at the 18z GFS ens.. wall to wall not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 We can't really count on EPO help at all this winter given the Nino strength...We need a -NAO..and not some bootleg one like for the February 2014 storm...We need a gigantic glowing red fat block sitting over the Davis Strait...It is mind boggling to me that some people are expecting a strong -EPO from January to March like last winter. If anyone thinks that is really going to happen with a super El Niño, I have a bridge to sell them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 6z GEFS continues advertising a pattern shakeup around New Year's and keeps it through the end of the run. Mean trough over the eastern CONUS, +PNA, with signs of a STJ. AO/NAO still positive (at least by eye), but some indications the Scandanavian ridge is pushing the tropospheric PV back towards Siberia. Not a perfect pattern, but miles better than what we're going to have for the next 10 days. It's encouraging (and kind of surprising) that the date of this shakeup seems fixed on the models and is not stuck at perpetual Day 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 This is a bit off-topic, but I've been looking at the GFS through stormvista, however I used NCEP last night. The graphics look different... Has the GFS upgraded recently? The fields look sharper, hard to explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Question: what am I looking for if I am trying to see a split flow pattern develop? We see that term thrown around here from time to time but it would be helpful to have a primer on how to identify it and how it benefits those in the east. It's pretty easy to identify on multiple panels. H5 is what we commonly post and it easy to see when you have a ridge in the pac northwest but "bagginess" in the isobars around SoCal. Just like what you seen on the GEFS that WxUSAF posted. A really good visual is the 250mb jet panels. Take a look at this panel. High pressure in the pac nw dissecting the pac jet with one stream up and over and the other half running right into the southwest and across the conus. It benefits the east because the southern stream is typically loaded with moisture and the northern stream brings in cold air. Sometimes the southern stream itself brings in a shortwave that tracks through the southern tier (and hopefully up the east coast.lol) and big dogs occur when 2 shortwaves phase (1 northern stream and 1 southern stream) in the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Quite a vigorous storm coming up on the 28th and 29th. Wonder if we can get that storm to slide more to our south then head NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Quite a vigorous storm coming up on the 28th and 29th. Wonder if we can get that storm to slide more to our south then head NE. Saw that...bowling ball...interesting the warmth behind it and in front of it...also direct west to east movement...if we had some cold air and optimism I might be enthused by it...I think the Euro had it but GFS has been flopping around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 The uber LR GFS shows one of the biggest winter storms I've ever seen lol...holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 That's gott be one of the best fantasy storms ever on the GFS. Looks like 1996 on steroids. Edit: Ninjad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Temps look marginal around DC verbatim Haha, that would be one I would def road trip for.....Obv we're talking about an event 300 hrs away, but honestly I see it as a positive right now to even get fantasy storms to show up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 There's my storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 There's my storm. If the advertised pattern materializes, I can certainly see there being a window during the first full week of January. Curious to see if the pattern reverts after. I think it will, given the state of the AO/NAO, but hopefully we can step down to our 3 week period of real winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 If the advertised pattern materializes, I can certainly see there being a window during the first full week of January. Curious to see if the pattern reverts after. I think it will, given the state of the AO/NAO, but hopefully we can step down to our 3 week period of real winter. It might be BS tho it's been hinted at across the ensembles and in the weeklies I think. One question is probably whether we can get a coastal or if it's an inland thing. Does seem to be part of a three storm wave as well.. not sure there's really been research on that but it's something we've seen over the years and it has been mentioned here at least. Often third is the one to watch around the region. Middle guy sorta helps tilt the pole region/Greenland at least slightly in our favor, plus they all drag the zone east a bit. I don't believe it is a signal of winter showing up full time. Longer range ens signals are for it not to really lock in IMO.. maybe even more ridging for a bit. Maybe. If the s stream can keep coming we prob would stay nearer normal at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 The model hasn't changed, but the NCEP site last Tuesday started using the 0.25 degree output grids to generate their GFS graphics. They had previously been using a much lower resolution grid. This is a bit off-topic, but I've been looking at the GFS through stormvista, however I used NCEP last night. The graphics look different... Has the GFS upgraded recently? The fields look sharper, hard to explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Haha, that would be one I would def road trip for.....Obv we're talking about an event 300 hrs away, but honestly I see it as a positive right now to even get fantasy storms to show up on the models. Wow totally agree there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 The last panel of the GEFS ennsemble mean shows a pattern over western North America (AK and western Canada similar too last year's pattern and hints at a southern stream system. If it holds serve until Wednesday I might have something worth writing about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 The last panel of the GEFS ennsemble mean shows a pattern over western North America (AK and western Canada similar too last year's pattern and hints at a southern stream system. If it holds serve until Wednesday I might have something worth writing about.Oh, just be a weenie Wes and shoot us a first draft. It'll all around the internet in hours and you'll be a star in the eyes of weenies all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 The model hasn't changed, but the NCEP site last Tuesday started using the 0.25 degree output grids to generate their GFS graphics. They had previously been using a much lower resolution grid. It's actually made things harder to read on a continental map. The new scale would work better for regional maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Actually, the storm at 204 hours is equally, if not more, impressive as the 300 hour storm only warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 It's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Actually, the storm at 204 hours is equally, if not more, impressive as the 300 hour storm only warmer. It's like 3-4" of rain, definitely a big storm. Northern NJ into the Poconos get destroyed with 2-3' of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Latest GFS says Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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