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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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It's nothing new around here. The next few days are going to be awful in this forum. Old timers know how it goes. Arlwx will be talking about stupid flamethrowers...Amped will be making awful posts picking out the most negative parts of the model...AlaskaETC will be saying it's over based on a 200 hour prog. It's winter time in DC. Welcome.

I'm going to be pretty bad the next week or so. It's the whole pent up thing. Pattern watching for 6 straight weeks and 6 flakes fell from a random flurry. And toss a Dec torch of epic proportions into the mix and I'm itching like a poison sumac rash for the first legit event.

I didn't have high expectations this winter and went sub climo in the snow contest. But now that we have a legit snow pattern getting close to medium range I'm kinda neurotic. I'm sure I'm not alone. With that being said, I'll still be pretty level-headed compared to many.

On a wx note, euro ens are pushing any relax of the -ao back in time now. That's encouraging. Breaking the back of a big + phase is tricky. Sometimes it's a flash in the pan and other times it's an outright flip for a month or more. The jury is still out and will be for a while but right now things seem to be hedging in our favor. If we really are entering a 45-60 day -ao the only thing standing in our way of our 3rd climo+ winter in a row is bad luck and not a bad pattern.

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500mb heights remain high in the GL and in Canada north and ne of the GL at the end of the Euro run. As a result, I'm not so convinced that the GL low will be as much trouble as it could be.

I thought lower pressure over the lakes was more of a concern with a +NAO. If the models are to be believed, and in fact we get higher heights building in the NAO domain, wouldn't the general tendency be to have higher pressure over the lakes and lower pressure east of the maritimes (50-50 low)?

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I thought lower pressure over the lakes was more of a concern with a +NAO. If the models are to be believed, and in fact we get higher heights building in the NAO domain, wouldn't the general tendency be to have higher pressure over the lakes and lower pressure east of the maritimes (50-50 low)?

That's what I thought too. I figured a GL low will have lower probability of occurring considering the higher heights in the AO and NAO domains. Curious to hear the experts thoughts on that.

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I thought lower pressure over the lakes was more of a concern with a +NAO. If the models are to be believed, and in fact we get higher heights building in the NAO domain, wouldn't the general tendency be to have higher pressure over the lakes and lower pressure east of the maritimes (50-50 low)?

After watching what happened in NE earlier in the week when the models days out seemed to underestimate the effects of higher heights, I just think the Euro could be doing the same thing. If it is, then the low in the GL should be weaker. I could be wrong, certainly, but I like looking at trends in the season as possible clues to future events.
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That's what I thought too. I figured a GL low will have lower probability of occurring considering the higher heights in the AO and NAO domains. Curious to hear the experts thoughts on that.

I'm no expert but it's totally plausible on the front side of the cold dump. It's not like there is a deep trough in place in the eastern 3rd of the conus by then. There are 2 distinct vorts being keyed in on. If the first one rides the edge of the real cold air diving into the upper mw then a troublesome gl low will be there before we have a legit air mass in place. Plenty of euro ens members showed this possibility regardless of the ao going neg.

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I'm no expert but it's totally plausible on the front side of the cold dump. It's not like there is a deep trough in place in the eastern 3rd of the conus by then. There are 2 distinct vorts being keyed in on. If the first one rides the edge of the real cold air diving into the upper mw then a troublesome gl low will be there before we have a legit air mass in place. Plenty of euro ens members showed this possibility regardless of the ao going neg.

Thanks Bob. Something to keep our eye on. And yes, you're an expert.

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There was so much going on at the H5 level that run.  If nothing else, the GFS illustrates nicely how that great lakes low could screw up our prospects.  Good thing we are still in the range where the ensembles carry much more weight than a single op run.  I tend to think that the GL low will die out or transfer sooner than what the GFS showed, maybe just wishful thinking though as it seems to be showing up rather consistently. 

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Unless I'm reading the 0C line wrong (looks like it's down by Richmond), that looks like a solid shellacking, at least with qpf.  Don't recall us putting much faith in the Canadian in the past, but happy to root for the underdog if it helps. 

It's the next one that gives us the snow. Models are all over the place with the undercutting lead energy, but I can't see how cold air will get in here before that storm.   Cannadian ninjas a second storm at 216 that brings us the heavy snow.

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People getting way too invested in possible storms that are still 7+ days and more into the future.

 

i think there's also the element of "it was warm for so long that we now think it can snow with temps in the 40s".  40s is average, but it's not a banana high with a developing low over the tennessee valley either.  if you're a snow lover, then you should be happy about the pattern change because it puts us at "normal", not because it means snow is imminent.

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There was so much going on at the H5 level that run.  If nothing else, the GFS illustrates nicely how that great lakes low could screw up our prospects.  Good thing we are still in the range where the ensembles carry much more weight than a single op run.  I tend to think that the GL low will die out or transfer sooner than what the GFS showed, maybe just wishful thinking though as it seems to be showing up rather consistently.

Historically, as long as that GL low sits there, it will be hard to get excited for this one. It's the cold air killer.

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I think the ensembles still look manageable but will wait for Bob or Ian to chime in with a more detailed analysis.

Agree, but just looking at the ens mean the storm next weekend has the look of something messy...may be better for the mountains, with slop/rain as you go east. Still way out there though. I am more intrigued by the chances for a colder storm the following week, when the pattern is more established.

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