pasnownut Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The Great Lakes are still open water so the lake effect machine would get cranking. look at the cams.... http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm guns already cranking. they REALLY need it as that area is highly dependent on snomobiling/winter sports. hope what they arleady got (closing in on 12'' at some locals) sticks around for them to salvage some much needed business. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Funky looking system for next weekend on the GFS. Bet it ends up being our first snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Funky looking system for next weekend on the GFS. Bet it ends up being our first snow. Looks like cold rain. Although I am only out to 177 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 18z GFS is the biggest model run since the 12z OP Euro! Should be telling! In all seriousness tho, I think my Southern friends (read: Mid-Atlantic subforum) share the fun this winter, moreso than in recent years. Loving the look of the -epo with the piece of the ridge breaking off and setting a pseudo West-based -nao in the longer range. Keeps the confluence in a better spot and keeps the pattern busy. Fun times ahead! Sent from my LG-V410 It's gone. Lotta rain than cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The low next weekend is a 1000mb as opposed to the 1011mb at 12z. I would think we want a weaker low that moves almost due east, a transfer to the coast could also work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yep. Right now it's a New England storm. Still time to shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Funky looking system for next weekend on the GFS. Bet it ends up being our first snow. Funky is a good way to describe it. Wonky would also work. And I concur. It could fail, but it sure looks like a pattern ripe for a winter storm for at least parts of the MA. The middle/end of the following week might be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yep. Right now it's a New England storm. Still time to shift south. It looks like 18 hours of snow showers to me. I would take that in a heart beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Funky is a good way to describe it. Wonky would also work. And I concur. It could fail, but it sure looks like a pattern ripe for a winter storm for at least parts of the MA. The middle/end of the following week might be better. I'm right there with you. Some may be distraught over the big storm not showing up but I think we are sitting pretty. It has a light snow event next weekend over my are for about 40 hours. LOL...I don't see it. Just a funky-wonky run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm right there with you. Some may be distraught over the big storm not showing up but I think we are sitting pretty. It has a light snow event next weekend over my are for about 40 hours. LOL...I don't see it. Just a funky-wonky run. Tight spacing between the short waves is going to cause mayhem out in time. I agree with you. We are sitting in a good spot if you take all guidance into consideration. Both waves can do something. The one thing I didn't like about the euro op and ens is the Great Lakes low. It's on enough ens members to worry a bit. A lot of wet but not white solutions have it. As far as the 18z gfs goes...I believe it as much as 12z's multi hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I am just looking at the water temps off the Mid Atlantic Coast and just wow!! 77-83 degrees really?? http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/bigbight/sst_comp/noaa/2015/img/151227.361.comp.lnt.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I am just looking at the water temps off the Mid Atlantic Coast and just wow!! 77-83 degrees really?? http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/bigbight/sst_comp/noaa/2015/img/151227.361.comp.lnt.jpg Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 This new GFS is def. a lot dif than the old one when it comes to handling H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Fwiw- 18z gefs implies wave 1 is the show and wave 2 is suppressed and ots. Not really a good run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think it's a blip..model mayhem for lack of a better phrase...lets see what 0z brings...that solution seems odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Can we pretend the 18z never happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Can we pretend the 18z never happened? I think that's what we're doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Maybe this isn't the place to do this, but could someone give me a dumbed down explanation of what H5 is and what we want it to look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 It's funny how we always discount most GFS solutions yet it always makes us second guess even the Euro. If that is true then this 0z run is the most important run of the winter so far...rest up my friends because it's going to be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 We can't count on anything more that 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Fwiw- 18z gefs implies wave 1 is the show and wave 2 is suppressed and ots. Not really a good run overall. I'll go with the bird in the hand theory. Give me event one. We can worry about the second one while we are digging out of the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Maybe this isn't the place to do this, but could someone give me a dumbed down explanation of what H5 is and what we want it to look like? H5 is the 500 Millibar level soundings that are combined into your 500MB map i.e. http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html map for example. Look at http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall12/atmo336/lectures/sec1/info500mb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Maybe this isn't the place to do this, but could someone give me a dumbed down explanation of what H5 is and what we want it to look like?I'll pm you some nice and easy to understand links tomorrow. H5 or 500mb or 500hpa are interchangeable terms. H5 plots depict what is going on 18k+/- up in the atmosphere (upper levels) and are very important in regards to what is going on at the surface. Probably the most important plots to understand when it comes to winter weather. When you see us talk about "heights" it means upper level pressure and when we talk about "vorticity" it means upper level counter clockwise spin or "energy" that spawns storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 We can't count on anything more that 6 days out. There's some truth to this. Beyond 6, the gfs has had some issues of late. The issues have been suppression that doesn't happen and getting lied to far east. If that holds, I'd expect the first one might be too far west but the second might be a much better event. As for me, I want to see the Euro show snow before I'm going to get excited. Word here is that the Euro is a better model when it comes to southern stream systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Today's ensembles were plenty good enough for us at this point. The ops will be all over the place for a while. As long as a couple ops show a nice storm each day, and the ensembles hold serve, we are very much in the game in days 8-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 There's some truth to this. Beyond 6, the gfs has had some issues of late. The issues have been suppression that doesn't happen and getting lied to far east. If that holds, I'd expect the first one might be too far west but the second might be a much better event. As for me, I want to see the Euro show snow before I'm going to get excited. Word here is that the Euro is a better model when it comes to southern stream systems. We still have such a long way to go before any final solution will be set. I really wish people would remember that. We have a better pattern coming. A storm may happen, it may not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Thanks everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I think that's what we're doing People getting way too invested in possible storms that are still 7+ days and more into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 People getting way too invested in possible storms that are still 7+ days and more into the future. It's nothing new around here. The next few days are going to be awful in this forum. Old timers know how it goes. Arlwx will be talking about stupid flamethrowers...Amped will be making awful posts picking out the most negative parts of the model...AlaskaETC will be saying it's over based on a 200 hour prog. It's winter time in DC. Welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 500mb heights remain high in the GL and in Canada north and ne of the GL at the end of the Euro run. As a result, I'm not so convinced that the GL low will be as much trouble as it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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