BTRWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 No..not at all. My comment was tongue in cheek from years of watching the north trend. I like where we sit...especially after seeing a south trend in the past few years. Hopefully in the next few days, we'll know the amplitude of the trough and can come to a better consensus then. Nut In all seriousness our entire region is starting to look quite promising pattern-wise imo. Look at Boston ~hr 204 on the 12Z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Canadian and GFS in different worlds right now Which do you think is right? The one that gives New England more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I don't have my records in front of me but I think I got 6.5" with that cold storm but was probably less than .5 LE. Would be nice to get widespread 10"+ storm with a week of cold temps...then followed up by another 10"+ storm...lol I'd like to get a 6" snow with about 1/4" freezing rain on it followed by an icebox then followed by about 30" spread over about a month. Then I'd like a 20" snow in late Feb followed by two weeks of record cold followed by torch. Hey, I don't ask for much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Euro d10 would be so much better without the dreaded Great Lakes low. Miller A approaching though. Good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Euro d10 would be so much better without the dreaded Great Lakes low. Miller A approaching though. Good signs. Just focus on the Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 2 runs in a row the OP EURO dropping a big ULL over N. Central US. Not the best look if you want snow. It still can happen though, long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Man, that is some cold stuff dropping down into the upper Midwest. -25c 850s and nearly 30 below in international falls. Right on cue with what the ensembles have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Top analog d 6-10 on Euro is 12/2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I like seeing everyone excited. With cold looking more likely, lets ramp up the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 2 runs in a row the OP EURO dropping a big ULL over N. Central US. Not the best look if you want snow. It still can happen though, long way to go. some euro bias I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Top 2 analogs from Euro for 6-10 are near snowstorms. One is post 2009 storm, other is pre 1963 storm. The three dates after all had significant cold that followed. Cold may be the dominant signal but I think it's also catching on the possibility of a solid snow event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The Great Lakes are still open water so the lake effect machine would get cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Great posts Ian. I really like the h5 analog stuff. Imo- part of what makes Wes such a good snow forecaster is using that approach. I've only recently started using it the last couple years. Too bad wxbell doesn't have it like SV. You should tweet Ryan and tell him to get on it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 GEFS was awesome this run. Great signal for a couple of storms to run up the coast. It would make some sense to get hit at the beginning of a pattern change. Then maybe again once the pattern starts to relax. I can guarantee that the storm next week will happen just as modeled. Because I will be in Rochester NY that entire week and would miss all of it. At least the lake effect would be solid up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Great posts Ian. I really like the h5 analog stuff. Imo- part of what makes Wes such a good snow forecaster is using that approach. I've only recently started using it the last couple years. Too bad wxbell doesn't have it like SV. You should tweet Ryan and tell him to get on it. Lol Yeah I've been tempted to ask him about adding them... EPS is money looking. Closed sfc low NE of OBX at 6z Jan 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Quit talking dirty! I will be back in DC from Boston on the 11th so I can say screw NE officially ! Yeah I've been tempted to ask him about adding them... EPS is money looking. Closed sfc low NE of OBX at 6z Jan 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yeah I've been tempted to ask him about adding them... EPS is money looking. Closed sfc low NE of OBX at 6z Jan 11. MSLP panels look great but oddly the ensemble members don't look as good as 0z. Must be a fair # of members with temp problems for us I know I'm nitpicking and it looks great but I thought mean snowfall would be higher. Only a week to figure it out in mon fantasy land. Very cold air again d11+. -15 mean 850 line is pretty close to us. Gotta get some snowcover to maximize morning lows. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Top analogs at CPC today Jan 85, Dec 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Both storms.. Jan 9 and Jan 11 12z. Second has some beasts in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Both storms.. Jan 9 and Jan 11 12z. Second has some beasts in there. *snip* Correct me if I'm wrong but that is some mighty nice clustering for something this far out. I'm getting a little giddy and have to keep reminding myself that we live in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'd take the 12z EPS track for the Ian/11th storm any day. Love to see a lot of deep lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Correct me if I'm wrong but that is some mighty nice clustering for something this far out. I'm getting a little giddy and have to keep reminding myself that we live in DC. yeah seems quite clustered. the second is even arguably more clustered than the first along the whole track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The cold is really starting to press at the end of this EPS run. Seems to be some good agreement between the EPS and GEFS on the DT/Ian storm for next weekend. Should be a fun week of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 yeah seems quite clustered. the second is even arguably more clustered than the first along the whole track. Not only track - but seeing a bunch of such deep lows is really encouraging. Somebody quickly start to pile on ways we can fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 wxbell doesn't go far enough out on the large images but some big ole lows at d10 in the members. not sure we want too big heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Both storms.. Jan 9 and Jan 11 12z. Second has some beasts in there. We can measure in Cleveland Park together! I'll be an official resident on the 6th! Holla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Setup is still quite good at the end of the eps run. West based -nao, 50/50, and -epo ridge. Plenty of cold air. As long as the pac keeps sending energy in either stream we are in business. Very good look for a SE storm too. I'm trying hard to not have too high of expectations but it's really hard not to right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I like the fact that eps keeps the high latitude blocking idea through the end of its run. Gonna have our share opportunities over the next 2/3 weeks. edit...Bob beat me to it..lol His was a much more informative post anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 18z GFS is the biggest model run since the 12z OP Euro! Should be telling! In all seriousness tho, I think my Southern friends (read: Mid-Atlantic subforum) share the fun this winter, moreso than in recent years. Loving the look of the -epo with the piece of the ridge breaking off and setting a pseudo West-based -nao in the longer range. Keeps the confluence in a better spot and keeps the pattern busy. Fun times ahead! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 We can measure in Cleveland Park together! I'll be an official resident on the 6th! Hollawe should make it thru Jan at least before steak every night kills us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.