pasnownut Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I think I would take that two day/double coastal and call it a winter. FIXED... I think I would take that two day/double coastal and call it a GREAT START TO winter. Nice to see the better trends continuing. Looks like I better get the coffeemaker ready. Gonna be lots of late night model watching as our first threats start to show themselves. Happy New Year all!! Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The last gfs run is a dream. Tons of snow and New England gets much less if any. That's the perfect storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm kinda bummed the gfs didn't have 4 coastals but I guess the run was ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm kinda bummed the gfs didn't have 4 coastals but I guess the run was ok. It sort of does. Cold rain to blitz to cutoff to hr 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It sort of does. Cold rain to blitz to cutoff to hr 384 I was strictly talking about blizzards. Closest analog for that run is Feb 2010 with a little Dec 09 tossed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The last gfs run is a dream. Tons of snow and New England gets much less if any. That's the perfect storm. Spending the first 31 years of my life in southern PA and Delaware has taught me that this is rarely the case for New England (except for 2009/2010). Especially given an 8 to 12 day time period... north trends seem to be real when you are in the perfect location...that being said, my luck would be a repeat of that year, watching everyone in the south shovel feet of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I was strictly talking about blizzards. Closest analog for that run is Feb 2010 with a little Dec 09 tossed in. There's still time for your idea to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Do you ever post anything other than drive by negativity? . Trust us, no. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'm kinda bummed the gfs didn't have 4 coastals but I guess the run was ok. Yeah, that run was weenie porn. Shades of February, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Oh boy... Here we go It was a hell of a run though. Normally, most of us wouldn't be excited by a run that far into the future, but after suffering +20 departures for days, we're all starving for something good. On another note, I want to kill Hizenberg. Love him to death, but the last few weeks when I'm on mobile and see his post, he pulls the hook and bait....oh the 204 hour panel looks great! I scroll down 2 post later "it's all rain, but...". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It was a hell of a run though. Normally, most of us wouldn't be excited by a run that far into the future, but after suffering +20 departures for days, we're all starving for something good.The op run was ridiculous of course but it's not like it doesn't have some support in general. Highly unlikely there are tightly spaced multiple threats but we've all had our eyes on the second week of Jan for a long time now. Last night's euro ens upped the ante again with snow in the d8-15 range.It's been a long time since we've had a significant Jan storm with plenty of cold behind it. Jan 2011 was a drip fest. Late Jan 10 was a nice and very cold storm but it wasn't a bomb or anything. Jan 2000 was probably the last time a big one hit with plenty of cold? And lol on Hberg. I like that dude too. Always welcome imo. Even with his quirks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Ensembles will save us! Ensembles will save Spanks....he's in Ct. I'd rather be there early on in the game. Once things setup and stabilize, I think we can get in the game quite nicely down here. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Ensembles will save Spanks....he's in Ct. I'd rather be there early on in the game. Once things setup and stabilize, I think we can get in the game quite nicely down here. Nut I am sure we will get "ours" too...There is always that advantage of being further north in the winter, but I will also enjoy seeing everyone in my hometowns get their big storm/storms too. I will not be greedy, I know what it is like living down there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The last gfs run is a dream. Tons of snow and New England gets much less if any. That's the perfect storm. You can have it. I'm still shoveling out from last winter up in Boston lol. Seriously though, that's a sweet run for you folks. Psyched to see the juicy STJ and blocking show up. I think there will be opportunities for the whole EC before March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The catering to predisposed negative trollers prevents this board from reaching full utility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Spending the first 31 years of my life in southern PA and Delaware has taught me that this is rarely the case for New England (except for 2009/2010). Especially given an 8 to 12 day time period... north trends seem to be real when you are in the perfect location...that being said, my luck would be a repeat of that year, watching everyone in the south shovel feet of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Agreed but here have been a few storms where the models also trended south instead. A handful in the last few years where the strength of the high was underestimated. Also, I don't consider this the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12z Gefs is sweet. The entire d8-15 period looks about as promising as you can ask for at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016010112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It was a hell of a run though. Normally, most of us wouldn't be excited by a run that far into the future, but after suffering +20 departures for days, we're all starving for something good. On another note, I want to kill Hizenberg. Love him to death, but the last few weeks when I'm on mobile and see his post, he pulls the hook and bait....oh the 204 hour panel looks great! I scroll down 2 post later "it's all rain, but...". Ha, I suppose my post could have been taken two ways, negatively or positively. I intended it to be an excited Oh boy! Not a trolling one. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 An AO-/PNA+ pattern has increased prospects for measurable snow in January in the Washington, DC area: AO-/PNA+: The percentage of days with measurable snowfall is 21.9% higher than the entire January 1950-2015 average. AO-/PNA+ and El Niño: The percentage of days with measurable snowfall is 22.4% higher than the entire January 1950-2015 average. Washington, DC's 4" or greater January snowstorms (1950-2015): PNA+: 88% AO-: 80% AO-/PNA+: 68% AO-/PNA-: 12% AO+/PNA+: 20% AO+/PNA-: None So, at least the modeled pattern appears more conducive to snowfall opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Great post. Like Wes said, all we can say is our chances are above normal for snow soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Ensembles will save Spanks....he's in Ct. I'd rather be there early on in the game. Once things setup and stabilize, I think we can get in the game quite nicely down here. Nut You must be new here? Everyone else seems to agree with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Ha, I suppose my post could have been taken two ways, negatively or positively. I intended it to be an excited Oh boy! Not a trolling one. My bad. I took it as positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I took it as positive Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The op run was ridiculous of course but it's not like it doesn't have some support in general. Highly unlikely there are tightly spaced multiple threats but we've all had our eyes on the second week of Jan for a long time now. Last night's euro ens upped the ante again with snow in the d8-15 range. It's been a long time since we've had a significant Jan storm with plenty of cold behind it. Jan 2011 was a drip fest. Late Jan 10 was a nice and very cold storm but it wasn't a bomb or anything. Jan 2000 was probably the last time a big one hit with plenty of cold? And lol on Hberg. I like that dude too. Always welcome imo. Even with his quirks. Lol we had some serious snow and cold january 2014 if i remember...one day i woke up to zero degree temps and 8 inches on fresh snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Canadian and GFS in different worlds right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 we had some serious snow and cold january 2014 if i remember...one day i woke up to zero degree temps and 8 inches on fresh snow on the ground I don't have my records in front of me but I think I got 6.5" with that cold storm but was probably less than .5 LE. Would be nice to get widespread 10"+ storm with a week of cold temps...then followed up by another 10"+ storm...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 You must be new here? Everyone else seems to agree with me. No..not at all. My comment was tongue in cheek from years of watching the north trend. I like where we sit...especially after seeing a south trend in the past few years. Hopefully in the next few days, we'll know the amplitude of the trough and can come to a better consensus then. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 No..not at all. My comment was tongue in cheek from years of watching the north trend. I like where we sit...especially after seeing a south trend in the past few years. Hopefully in the next few days, we'll know the amplitude of the trough and can come to a better consensus then. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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