Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 This board is tough to figure at times. Some saying it's an awesome pattern coming up, some saying it's not good at all.Time perspective is important. We're looking beyond fantasy range into fantasy fantasy range right now. Last week of Jan looks warm on a monthly model. Subject to change every 3-4 days.Jan 10th- 20th look like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 How many strong Jan nino's have a well below normal west/northwest the entire month....amazing, when is that crap going to end. Essentially weeklies have a serviceable pattern days Dec 12- 20, then we go back to Dec weather until atleast Feb. If you buy into the weeklies. Model hugging CFS right now...haha Considering the current big shift under way was completely missed by the weeklies, I'm just not going to worry about it. This has been an unusual nino in some respects. The warm Dec is no surprise but why it was warm was kinda weird. Aleutian and SE ridge combo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 18z GFS brings the goods at fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Not really long range, but the 18z GFS ticked a bit colder with the temps on Tuesday. Widespread 20s in the afternoon with lows in the teens in the cities. Oh goodie, high of 25 imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Not really long range, but the 18z GFS ticked a bit colder with the temps on Tuesday. Widespread 20s in the afternoon with lows in the teens in the cities. With the warmth of the Chesapeake Bay right now, I wouldn't be surprised if there were some Bay effect snows somewhere in the Delmarva or eastern VA Tuesday into Wednesday. That's assuming, of course, the right wind trajectory.As for the weeklies, they completely missed the decent cold period scheduled to hit here in the 10-20 days, so I wouldn't worry about them yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Bob - weeklies are like a train wreck...hello Dec pattern.To say the least, the Feb cold and snow idea I had in trouble? Lol Jeez, talk about a really bad pattern about to take shape week 4, 1998 deja vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Watch the threat towards mid month end up a southern slider. The position and strength of that cold vortex in Canada will be a factor.. if it is displaced too far south, could lead to a suppressed storm track. Lol if the SE gets a major snow event and we are still shutout, the Panic room thread will be very active. The fact that we are concerned about the pv suppressing a storm is a good thing. It happens before every good one! My new Year's resolution is to be more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 To say the least, the Feb cold and snow idea I had in trouble? Lol Jeez, talk about a really bad pattern about to take shape week 4, 1998 deja vu Hey, NYC forum, your best poster got loose again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The cold isn't even here yet and we are already debating when it might depart. I stand by my assertion that this group of otherwise brilliant Mets and hobbyists often misses the snow events right under their noses while they look 10-20 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Hey, NYC forum, your best poster got loose again. We don't want him, you guys can keep him, you guys do a good job getting them trolls banned, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The cold isn't even here yet and we are already debating when it might depart. I stand by my assertion that this group of otherwise brilliant Mets and hobbyists often misses the snow events right under their noses while they look 10-20 days out. Brilliant post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Considering the current big shift under way was completely missed by the weeklies, I'm just not going to worry about it. This has been an unusual nino in some respects. The warm Dec is no surprise but why it was warm was kinda weird. Aleutian and SE ridge combo?Agree, the why Dec was warm was not expected, what's changed to shake that...the relax so far will be the day 10-13 potential and a reload to Dec could occur. I don't think it will but persistence can be tough to shake...JMA seasonal agrees, shows buried SW, -PNA, for weeks 3-4 as primary. I think everyone expects a relax but to what and how long will cause some angst. We (NC) are used to not having snow, atleast it may be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The weeklies didn't show the pattern? I think they mostly did tho maybe underestimated the -ao/nao if it comes to pass. I wouldn't call it a Dec pattern at end either really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Can we post an accumulation map for the bomb at 360 hours? Lol Time to dream a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Can we post an accumulation map for the bomb at 360 hours? Lol Time to dream a little.3"-6" per Instaweather maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 lets do a Jan 87 and Feb 83 and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 lets do a Jan 87 and Feb 83 and call it a winter Why not a combo Jan 06/87 and Feb 10/03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Why not a combo Jan 06/87 and Feb 10/03? Jan 06?? That year kind of sucked. Unless you meant '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Jan 06?? That year kind of sucked. Unless you meant '96. Haha...yes 96! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 If you want white dreams tonight, check out the new Canadian monthlies for February and March. Youzers! Start here with February temps and the check out 500mb and precip maps for both months. A little wetter for February would have been nice, but I guess we can't have everything. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 If you want white dreams tonight, check out the new Canadian monthlies for February and March. Youzers! Start here with February temps and the check out 500mb and precip maps for both months. A little wetter for February would have been nice, but I guess we can't have everything. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016010100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=19 Acceptable. Even though it looks a bit dry, the overall idea is the mean storm track is to our SE along/ off the coast. This is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Acceptable. Even though it looks a bit dry, the overall idea is the mean storm track is to our SE along/ off the coast. This is a good thing.I'd like to see January. Tropical Tidbits doesn't have it, so I'm going to check out the Canadian site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I'd like to see January. Tropical Tidbits doesn't have it, so I'm going to check out the Canadian site.Found it. Temp at least....not bad either. http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s Edit: that's a probability forecast I now see so you'll have to extrapolate. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Hint of Bay effect snow at 96h on 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 00z GFS shows my dream scenario. The jan 8-9 event lays down the frame work (cold air) and the following wave blows up into a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Unlike 18z, there is a transfer to the coast on the GFS, and brings light mixed precip (NW) and rain to the cities. Still in the game, I guess.that's alot more than a "light mix". Main thing is the potential is showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 ...and yes I understand verbatim it is rain for that 2nd event, but I don't care what the exact details show for an OP run this far out. Just the overall pattern. Jan is gonna rock IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 ...and yes I understand verbatim it is rain for that 2nd event, but I don't care what the exact details show for an OP run this far out. Just the overall pattern. Jan is gonna rock IMO. Not rain for everybody. Happy New Year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 More of a Scandinavian block develops on 0z GFS op vs 12z. Quite a difference. See what the GEFS have to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The pattern change looks brief on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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