Windman18 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z GFS gets real cold and looks to stay cold mid jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 GFS long range shows the -EPO _NAO pattern weenies have been waiting for. Congrats Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Wow at that block at the end of the 12z GFS op run. Thing of beauty. We really are going to get a legit -NAO...still a bit afraid to buy it lol. I think everyone here (me included) is a bit freaked to see this as its been a long time since we've seen near perfect teleconnections. And a true -NAO in winter to boot!? Pinch me. I'm dreaming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I think everyone here (me included) is a bit freaked to see this as its been a long time since we've seen near perfect teleconnections. And a true -NAO in winter to boot!? Pinch me. I'm dreaming... Yeah I have several times gone back and drooled over the 2009-10 pattern in recent winters...wondering if we would ever see such a thing again. Just maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z GEFS now looks just like the EPS. Strong cold signal and the mean agrees with the 12z op IRT blocking prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z GEFS now looks just like the EPS. Strong cold signal and the mean agrees with the 12z op IRT blocking prospects. gefs.JPG That's a great look even to these uneducated eyes. Comparing the 6z with the 12z runs today, there is a completely different look in eastern Canada which I think affects the coastal on the 12th for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z GEFS now looks just like the EPS. Strong cold signal and the mean agrees with the 12z op IRT blocking prospects. Looks like an active STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The high pressures this winter have been very strong with a couple of 30.6 but no cold air to work with That's a good sign and now finally some colder air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z CMC has some single digit and low double digit cold Wednesday morning. Also has an event on the 10th but is a mix/rain as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Doesn't the 12z GEFS look a little suppressed and OTS for anything coming from the South? Clipper city though?? .....and for the record....I'm still happy as all to see it. Just trying to do a little amateur interpretation of what I'm seeing. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 EURO has an almost subtropical system over the Bahamas day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 84-85 keeps showing up on the CPC analogs. I sure don't want to see a repeat of late Jan 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 EPS looks basically identical to last night. Same window for a coastal (11-13th). Looks quite cold in these parts mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 84-85 keeps showing up on the CPC analogs. I sure don't want to see a repeat of late Jan 85. You mean to tell me the blue on the anomalies map isn't snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looks like the 12z Euro takes a dump on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z EPS advertising a wintry pattern, especially D10-15. I eyeballed 19 members with at least 2" of snow in DC through D15. I like the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z EPS advertising a wintry pattern, especially D10-15. I eyeballed 19 members with at least 2" of snow in DC through D15. I like the potential. 19 out of 51 with at least 2" of snow. Here's to DC expectations!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 It takes a foot for DCA to measure an inch so those 2 inches won't show up in the history books even if the members verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 19 out of 51 with at least 2" of snow. Here's to DC expectations!! Getting the 2" mean line south of DC when it all happens d8+ is pretty bullish. Only 15+/- members show a compete shut out. I'm not sure we can ask much more out of LR guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Getting the 2" mean line south of DC when it all happens d8+ is pretty bullish. Only 15+/- members show a compete shut out. I'm not sure we can ask much more out of LR guidance.Watch me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Getting the 2" mean line south of DC when it all happens d8+ is pretty bullish. Only 15+/- members show a compete shut out. I'm not sure we can ask much more out of LR guidance. the problem is day 1 to 10 on this euro run are an absolute disaster. It all gets better in day 11 lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 the problem is day 1 to 10 on this euro run are an absolute disaster. It all gets better in day 11 lol?I'm not convinced that the next 10 days present no opportunity. Doesn't look like anything significant will happen but a chance for a snow event isn't ruled out. Last night's euro parallel had snow d9 and a handful of 12z EPS members showed snow inside of d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Nice coastal on the 15th. Other threats have evaporated until then on the 18z. But if this pattern is as advertised, we should get something before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm not convinced that the next 10 days present no opportunity. Doesn't look like anything significant will happen but a chance for a snow event isn't ruled out. Last night's euro parallel had snow d9 and a handful of 12z EPS members showed snow inside of d10. loooks like anything within 10 days will be mix/slop but i guess we will take it. We need to record at least a T for this Terrible Winter haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Watch the threat towards mid month end up a southern slider. The position and strength of that cold vortex in Canada will be a factor.. if it is displaced too far south, could lead to a suppressed storm track. Lol if the SE gets a major snow event and we are still shutout, the Panic room thread will be very active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Bob - weeklies are like a train wreck...hello Dec pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Bob - weeklies are like a train wreck...hello Dec pattern. Week 3 looks good. Slow relaxation but ok h5 pattern. Week 4 is the Jan thaw. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Week 3 looks good. Slow relaxation but ok h5 pattern. Week 4 is the Jan thaw. Lol. With the December torch we have just endured, January thaw is canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Week 3 looks good. Slow relaxation but ok h5 pattern. Week 4 is the Jan thaw. Lol. How many strong Jan nino's have a well below normal west/northwest the entire month....amazing, when is that crap going to end. Essentially weeklies have a serviceable pattern days Dec 12- 20, then we go back to Dec weather until atleast Feb. If you buy into the weeklies. Model hugging CFS right now...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 This board is tough to figure at times. Some saying it's an awesome pattern coming up, some saying it's not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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