Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 6z GFS one of the best GFS runs of the winter. Give it a day or two still we have to mix the atmosphere out and get things moving before models truly catch on things have locked in place for 2 months now honestly. Models are like is it really happening? Winter?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 AiZ, euro looks quite amplified and cold now. Mean snowfall is 2" for DCA and increases n-w. 18 members now showing 2" in DC with some solid strikes in the mix. MSLP panels look promising on Jan 11-12. Nice cluster of coastals for a long lead. Best run yet. Interesingly, snowy solutions start showing up d6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Heh, jb being jb. Good storm pattern? Definitely. Good blizzard pattern? Not for us. And throwing the B word out there is a bit sensational. I guess he trying to get folks to sign- up for WxBell's free 7 day trial. We are talking about JB here though, having to throw in a bit of marketing in there too to balance things out. Well, as the pattern goes , so does the hype train. Your right the word blizzard is a bit sensational. Only had true blizzard warnings here for my area in recent memory was, ( maybe once ) for a few hours , during the epic 09-10 season. Those conditions are a rare phenomenon to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 AiZ, euro looks quite amplified and cold now. Mean snowfall is 2" for DCA and increases n-w. 18 members now showing 2" in DC with some solid strikes in the mix. MSLP panels look promising on Jan 11-12. Nice cluster of coastals for a long lead. Best run yet. Interesingly, snowy solutions start showing up d6. Bob, could it be that the models may be catching up to the advertised pattern change and thus it's starting to show up on the operationals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I was salivating over the EPS earlier in the week. Now I am just giddy. It has only improved since then. Could get exciting around here in a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I guess he trying to get folks to sign- up for WxBell's free 7 day trial. We are talking about JB here though, having to throw in a bit of marketing in there too to balance things out. Well, as the pattern goes , so does the hype train. Your right the word blizzard is a bit sensational. Only had true blizzard warnings here for my area in recent memory was, ( maybe once ) for a few hours , during the epic 09-10 season. Those conditions are a rare phenomenon to behold. Yup...Feb. 10, 2010. That was a true blizzard, from early morning on into late afternoon. I remember waking up surprised by that when I looked outside. Temperatures in the low 20s, white-out conditions, and winds gusting 40+ MPH. That was nifty! There were brief blizzard-like conditions in some areas for Feb. 5-6 I believe, but the Feb. 9-10 storm was an area-wide blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 AiZ, euro looks quite amplified and cold now. Mean snowfall is 2" for DCA and increases n-w. 18 members now showing 2" in DC with some solid strikes in the mix. MSLP panels look promising on Jan 11-12. Nice cluster of coastals for a long lead. Best run yet. Interesingly, snowy solutions start showing up d6. Thanks, Bob. Sounds very nice, let's hope for the best that it pans out! That is interesting the EPS has snowy solutions in about a week. I wasn't even thinking of the next week for anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yup...Feb. 10, 2010. That was a true blizzard, from early morning on into late afternoon. I remember waking up surprised by that when I looked outside. Temperatures in the low 20s, white-out conditions, and winds gusting 40+ MPH. That was nifty! There were brief blizzard-like conditions in some areas for Feb. 5-6 I believe, but the Feb. 9-10 storm was an area-wide blizzard. Didn't that storm have that crazy fetch off the Atlantic , I believe I went to heavy sleet during the evening hours, if not I would have hit 25 or more inches. The December 09 MECS in my area was the biggest snowfall for me that season, I measured 23 inches , or thereabouts here Middletown, DE. Nice memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Heh, jb being jb. Good storm pattern? Definitely. Good blizzard pattern? Not for us. And throwing the B word out there is a bit sensational. Most of the general public doesn't even know what truly defines a blizzard. Many think its just a very large snowfall and do not understand the wind component. JB understands this void in knowledge and targets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Bob, could it be that the models may be catching up to the advertised pattern change and thus it's starting to show up on the operationals? Models are trending cooler with lower heights in the medium range. Flow is more suppressed than the original idea of a quick cool shot then back to ridge before the energy in the SW moves across the US. The trend the last 24 hours has been below normal heights south of us in the med range. This has a big impact on sensible wx because the ridge being depicted yesterday was not only warm but storm track would be nw of us. That seems to be evolving to something more favorable a bit quicker now. I've been watching the euro parallel. It shows a light 2" event d9-10. There is some ensemble support now and this is pretty much new overnight. Could be a blip but it wouldn't surprise me if we start seeing the ops and ens showing a chance for snow before the 10-12th window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Didn't that storm have that crazy fetch off the Atlantic , I believe I went to heavy sleet during the evening hours, if not I would have hit 25 or more inches. The December 09 MECS in my area was the biggest snowfall for me that season, I measured 23 inches , or thereabouts here Middletown, DE. Nice memories. Yes you did as us here in Delaware County PA and what is more interesting the Ocean Water Temp was 53 at ACY exactly what it is today hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I was salivating over the EPS earlier in the week. Now I am just giddy. It has only improved since then. Could get exciting around here in a couple of weeks.Yup. Today was the first day this winter season I was truly looking forward to looking at the overnight model runs when I got up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yup...Feb. 10, 2010. That was a true blizzard, from early morning on into late afternoon. I remember waking up surprised by that when I looked outside. Temperatures in the low 20s, white-out conditions, and winds gusting 40+ MPH. That was nifty! There were brief blizzard-like conditions in some areas for Feb. 5-6 I believe, but the Feb. 9-10 storm was an area-wide blizzard. Feb 10 definitely had the better wind component, but the snowfall just generally wasn't that heavy. I was in the little dot area that got 38 inches of snow from the Feb 5-6 storm and there were 3-4 hours overnight where it was just epic with extremely heavy snow, lightning and low visibility. I thought it was pretty clearly the most impressive storm that winter and arguably top 2-3 in my lifetime. Blizzard of 96 and the 2003 storm also come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Bob can you confirm what JB posted a few minutes ago that the Euro ensembles day 10 to 15, have remarkable similarities to the Jan 12th to 14th blizzard of 1964. Thanks In all fairness, it should be pointed out JB was NOT saying we would have a blizzard like 1964, merely that the patterns are very similar leading up to it. Here is his final comment to confirm this is what he said " Of course no two weather events are exactly the same" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yup...Feb. 10, 2010. That was a true blizzard, from early morning on into late afternoon. I remember waking up surprised by that when I looked outside. Temperatures in the low 20s, white-out conditions, and winds gusting 40+ MPH. That was nifty! There were brief blizzard-like conditions in some areas for Feb. 5-6 I believe, but the Feb. 9-10 storm was an area-wide blizzard. The entire state of MD was under a blizzard warning on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I just pulled the composite for 1964. It's definitely not the same setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The entire state of MD was under a blizzard warning on the 10th. NSFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I just pulled the composite for 1964. It's definitely not the same setup. 1964.JPG He likes central PA jackpots, just as weenie as the rest of us. I am sure we can pull a 2010 winter storm to match up to what the EPS is showing....this is one possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The 12z GFS is prepping to screw us...but again...its a 10 day prog, so the exact details are meaningless...but the signal continues for something happening in the timeframe we're all watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I just pulled the composite for 1964. It's definitely not the same setup. 1964.JPG I was going to say that. The top three StormVista analogs for the 11-15 day period were Jan, 14, 1977.....cold but not much snow, Dec 20, 1985 another not big storm one and Dec. 20 1963. Some geezers like me remember the snowstorm on Dec. 23 of that year. I think DCA got around 6 inches, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Although that little 1024 high holds on longer than I thought 1040 high...moves out of the way..but you get a mighty 1024 in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I was going to say that. The top three StormVista analogs for the 11-15 day period were Jan, 14, 1977.....cold but not much snow, Dec 20, 1985 another not big storm one and Dec. 20 1963. Some geezers like me remember the snowstorm on Dec. 23 of that year. I think DCA got around 6 inches, Even though d10-15 looks pretty nice on the EPS, in the back of my mind I always think about us getting our best chance at a good storm on the tail end of cold patterns. EPS has the 850 line all the way down to the FL panhandle now. Unless the trough axis is just perfect, that's not really a good thing. I could see the SE getting hit first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Although that little 1024 high holds on longer than I thought 1040 high...moves out of the way..but you get a mighty 1024 in there lol I suppose the most interesting part of the run is there's enough confluence and a 50/50 so the storm can't cut. It just rides due east. That's 2 runs in a row fwiw. Probably not worth much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Even though d10-15 looks pretty nice on the EPS, in the back of my mind I always think about us getting our best chance at a good storm on the tail end of cold patterns. EPS has the 850 line all the way down to the FL panhandle now. Unless the trough axis is just perfect, that's not really a good thing. I could see the SE getting hit first. I just sent a short outlook article to CWG that I'll post when it's been released. It's the most bullish I've been this winter but not JB or DT ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The 12z GFS is prepping to screw us...but again...its a 10 day prog, so the exact details are meaningless...but the signal continues for something happening in the timeframe we're all watching. I like the fact that it again hints at something worth tracking within 10 days with another piece of energy in the SW heading for Texas behind it (which would align with the 0z EPS window for a possible EC storm around the 11th or 12th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 If you like cold and snow, 0z EPS is by far the best run of the year. Even has a weak signal inside of d10.The baby woke me up at 4 am and I took a peak. Went back to sleep happy after seeing the 10-15 day eps. If it's right we would be unlucky not to get something from that. It's almost a perfect setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I just sent a short outlook article to CWG that I'll post when it's been released. It's the most bullish I've been this winter but not JB or DT ish. Nice! Look forward to reading it. I'd be happy with any snow that sticks. Big storms are few and far between in these parts. Gunning for one 10+ days in advance has a very low success rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Nice! Look forward to reading it. I'd be happy with any snow that sticks. Big storms are few and far between in these parts. Gunning for one 10+ days in advance has a very low success rate. I think our best chances still might be beyond the 14th but at lessyt the pattern is not looking bad towards the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Wow at that block at the end of the 12z GFS op run. Thing of beauty. We really are going to get a legit -NAO...still a bit afraid to buy it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I think our best chances still might be beyond the 14th but at lessyt the pattern is not looking bad towards the end of the period. That what I said earlier...we'll cash in beyond the period most people are looking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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