SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I thought the GFS ensemble mean looked more or less pretty consistent for awhile now in the medium-longer range with the overall idea of the pattern. My guess is the Euro ensembles have been similar (though I haven't seen those directly), going by the discussion I've seen in here. Not saying it's going to be right, but the ensemble mean is primarily what I've looked at for that time period. As for the deterministic, yes, that can be all over the place of course. The GFS individuals have had several members that are consistently zonal or even flat out SE ridge which I think has skewed the mean so it hasn't been as delicious as the Euro mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 What does Jan 7 look like? What is the set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GIVE THE COLD AIR TIME TO COME SOUTH [ I think people are just getting impatient because it's been so awful and for days we have been talking about this "great" pattern setting up but there is still no pretty snow maps on op runs to look at. Problem is we are coming from such a bad pattern it's going to take time for the changes to get cold established in our area. Then add in that often we do better as a blocking pattern matures and not as it establishes and we may not actually see good threats for some time. That isn't what most want to hear but it doesn't mean we won't see snow from this coming pattern just it might not be right away. At least in this coming pattern we will have a chance. The last 2 months any chance of snow was doa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 SORRY but this is just I domnt see what is woof worthy Jan7 on 0z 186 h euro its holds some promise but we also have to get the cold air into place I'm glad you changed or edited your post from "you're 100 percent wrong" to this...but the energy that he's talking about at 186hrs leads to the storm that you're woofing about a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 To me, it's perplexing that the coastal on the 7th at 997 MB won't pull in the colder air over Ohio for the MA. I could see if it was an ineffectual 1005 storm but 997 or 996 is pretty vigorous, I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yes the lack of pretty snow pictures on the operational models does contribute to my frustration. I am also frustrated that a better pattern has been predicted for perhaps a week now while the 8-14 day outlook from the CPC has't changed much for four weeks straight (yes there were ~two 7 days periods when it called for average temperatures and the likelihood of above normal temperatures has dropped from 90-100% confidence to 60-70%). I have little faith in monthly forecasts having much skill beyond the teleconnections associated with ENSO. I suspect they've done very well recently (at least when using unsophisticated metrics to judge success) because the patterns seem to be persisting longer than I used to recall. Remember when the pattern used to change every 10-14 days. I would still be stunned if we get shutout of measurable snow this January. Its just a long wait. I also (like JI) want a big storm. It seems like the biggest storm I've experienced since 2010 consisted of 4 inches of snow, followed by 12 hours of light/moderate rain, and then 3 inches of snow. I can't even recall the last bad ice storm in PG county. Was it 2007? Can't say that bothers me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Shoot me if you want, but I said at the start of December that anything that falls before 1/15 will be a gift and that things would be better after that date. I'm sticking to it. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47321-december-medlong-range-disco/?p=3781463 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The GFS individuals have had several members that are consistently zonal or even flat out SE ridge which I think has skewed the mean so it hasn't been as delicious as the Euro mean Thanks...I see what you mean now. I honestly haven't seen or looked at individual members but what you're saying makes sense. So essentially the GFS mean would actually look "better" were it not for the zonal/SE ridge members, and the Euro apparently does not have those or at least as many, I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I think people are just getting impatient because it's been so awful and for days we have been talking about this "great" pattern setting up but there is still no pretty snow maps on op runs to look at. Problem is we are coming from such a bad pattern it's going to take time for the changes to get cold established in our area. Then add in that often we do better as a blocking pattern matures and not as it establishes and we may not actually see good threats for some time. That isn't what most want to hear but it doesn't mean we won't see snow from this coming pattern just it might not be right away. At least in this coming pattern we will have a chance. The last 2 months any chance of snow was doa Very good points. There is a tendency to get impatient or worried, and I'll admit now that we're on the doorstep of January it's hard not to at least a little bit. I pretty well wrote off December long ago, so it kind of didn't bother me that we're getting completely shut out (heck, it's like having a perfect game thrown against you!). This is sick, but since the month is lost anyhow and has been so darned warm, I've been rooting for a double-digit warm departure. Might as well go all the way in terms of futility! I believe a lot of the more knowledgeable medium-range mets (including from other regions, i.e., Don Sutherland and Benchmark) have been saying this same thing about the better pattern not really taking hold until about mid-January. That said, the first part of the month won't necessarily be a torch or a shutout, but a gradual turn to colder from how I understand it. Whether it materializes as the indications have been the past several days or we produce anything out of it remains to be seen, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 00z GFS has a coastal on the 8th but it is rain as of now. Has trended west the past few runs, may be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Check out the 700mb moisture transport for this time frame....tropical almost ..eh?Which is why the chances of us getting snow is very low-warm system from the GOM and no cold air close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I think people are just getting impatient because it's been so awful and for days we have been talking about this "great" pattern setting up but there is still no pretty snow maps on op runs to look at. Problem is we are coming from such a bad pattern it's going to take time for the changes to get cold established in our area. Then add in that often we do better as a blocking pattern matures and not as it establishes and we may not actually see good threats for some time. That isn't what most want to hear but it doesn't mean we won't see snow from this coming pattern just it might not be right away. At least in this coming pattern we will have a chance. The last 2 months any chance of snow was doa Yea seems like we may need to establish a better pattern first to get the colder air more firmly entrenched in the east, otherwise we may need to rely too much on timing which, around here, is playing with house money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Huge event forming on the Day 9-10 EURO, but it would almost certainly be a Lakes Cutter. Last night DT was bashing me saying the 186 hr EURO didn't look good, but it didn't make sense to me because the wave I was talking about & the setup was the one that lead to the time frame he was woofing about yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Huge event forming on the Day 9-10 EURO, but it would almost certainly be a Lakes Cutter. Last night DT was bashing me saying the 186 hr EURO didn't look good, but it didn't make sense to me because the wave I was talking about & the setup was the one that lead to the time frame he was woofing about yesterday. Not sure if it would be a lakes cutter with a lot of confluence to the north and a strong high pressure coming down. If anything, it would probably transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Not sure if it would be a lakes cutter with a lot of confluence to the north and a strong high pressure coming down. If anything, it would probably transfer. Not much confluence honestly. The center of the HP is in Western Canada & the SE Ridge is booming. It is a day 9-10 time frame though. However, DT's event isn't looking too hot, though I do think we'll have a threat sometime in Jan though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 6z gfs snowstorm on DT's date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 and some mixed event before that on 6z in some odd funky set up where the precip just meanders waiting for a cold air train to arrive. Next weekend could be one of those need Doritos and beer type weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 6z gfs snowstorm on DT's date If you like cold and snow, 0z EPS is by far the best run of the year. Even has a weak signal inside of d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Tuesday trended a bit colder in the overnight runs. Highs near 30 and lows in the upper teens for the burbs maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Tuesday trended a bit colder in the overnight runs. Highs near 30 and lows in the upper teens for the burbs maybeJust noticed that. Looks like our first legitimate really cold day. Euro keeps my area in the mid 20's for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 If you like cold and snow, 0z EPS is by far the best run of the year. Even has a weak signal inside of d10. Bob can you confirm what JB posted a few minutes ago that the Euro ensembles day 10 to 15, have remarkable similarities to the Jan 12th to 14th blizzard of 1964. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 6z GFS one of the best GFS runs of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 If you like cold and snow, 0z EPS is by far the best run of the year. Even has a weak signal inside of d10. Hey Bob...how do the individual EPS members as a whole look, and the overall mean? Snow Goose the other day implied that several individual GFS ensemble members displayed a zonal flow or southeast ridge look, which skewed the GFS mean somewhat (I think that's what he was saying, anyhow). Thus, though the GFS mean looked pretty good in the medium-longer range, it did not look as nice as the Euro mean. Made sense to me, and perhaps partly explains why even the GFS deterministic runs in the past day or so have been all over the place (more than before?) in that time period. So I'm assuming, based on all this, that the EPS members show fewer of the "unfavorable" elements compared to the GEFS ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 6z GFS one of the best GFS runs of the winter. It did have a "blocky" sort of look as you go out in time from what I could tell. And quite active with the potential for an event or two in there if my eyes don't totally deceive me. My only concern (sort of) is that while there are some cold shots, it looks almost as if we're on the edge much of the time with the main cold pretty well north of us as flow undercuts the PNA ridging (the GFS seems to weaken the ridging too, but who knows). This may be what DT was referring to earlier about "waiting for the cold to move south." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Just noticed that. Looks like our first legitimate really cold day. Euro keeps my area in the mid 20's for highs. 0z euro is has a stronger, sharper trough that digs further south than the 0z GFS. That High moving in is stronger. If the more extensive upper trough verifies, there might be some snow showers/flurries in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 It did have a "blocky" sort of look as you go out in time from what I could tell. That is a pretty nice look there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 0z euro is has a stronger, sharper trough that digs further south than the 0z GFS. That High moving in is stronger. If the more extensive upper trough verifies, there might be some snow showers/flurries in spots. Yup. Some flurries on Monday afternoon or evening wouldn't surprise me at all. Best chance far n/w obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Tuesday trended a bit colder in the overnight runs. Highs near 30 and lows in the upper teens for the burbs maybelooks like the euro caught up on the 0z run to the GFS for this. Euro ens hr 276 is drool worthy for the mid atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 looks like the euro caught up on the 0z run to the GFS for this. Euro ens hr 276 is drool worthy for the mid atl. Really good signal from the EPS of an EC low (Miller A) hr 276; great track on the MSLP mean map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Bob can you confirm what JB posted a few minutes ago that the Euro ensembles day 10 to 15, have remarkable similarities to the Jan 12th to 14th blizzard of 1964. Thanks Heh, jb being jb. Good storm pattern? Definitely. Good blizzard pattern? Not for us. And throwing the B word out there is a bit sensational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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