AlaskaETC Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 There is one caveat that is starting to show itself in the LR. The SE Ridge. Started to show up on today's EPS. Tonight's 00z EURO for example, Day 9-10, the setup would normally be an amazing one,but the SE ridge ends up being so strong that any storm would probably cut. We'll see, long way out. The dreaded SE ridge. Always messes a good thing up. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Here is what I am afraid of on what could go wrong in this upcoming pattern. Looking at all the other features you'd have to be positive; Some Greenland ridging, energy coming out of the southwest, and a semi-decent PV that is in a good spot (though we'd def want it farther SE)...However, the negative is that semi-beastly SE Ridge roaring its ugly head. With that there the cold air just can't get far enough south, and it looks like the low on this run would end up cutting. WAY otu there and it will change in 12 hours, but just something to keep an eye out for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Allen posted the morning 6z GEFS week two precip anomalies, so basically day 8 through day 14 and pretty dry up here, wet down South. You can see the prep going out to sea East of North Carolina. Not sure of any significant biases with the GEFS at this range, as I believe it does not overall suppress storms out to sea like the typical GFS. Looking at today's forecasted AO and NAO, trends seem to indicate AO stays negative longer and NAO may go negative during week two. Here is the Canadian 10 day mean , pretty warm deviation in northwest Canada. https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/682176994998521856 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Here is what I am afraid of on what could go wrong in this upcoming pattern. Looking at all the other features you'd have to be positive; Some Greenland ridging, energy coming out of the southwest, and a semi-decent PV that is in a good spot (though we'd def want it farther SE)...However, the negative is that semi-beastly SE Ridge roaring its ugly head. With that there the cold air just can't get far enough south, and it looks like the low on this run would end up cutting. WAY otu there and it will change in 12 hours, but just something to keep an eye out for ouch.png Trough in the SW favors higher heights on the east coast in general. That feature is going to tend to fight the trough in eastern Canada and inhibit its ability to build/ deliver colder air southward. Most likely temps will be average to slightly above average for the next 10 days or so in the MA and NE, if that pattern holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Operational gfs and euro overnight are pretty meh. Higher heights insist on holding on in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That PNA ridge isn't a good thing this go I don't think. I'm more and more convinced of that watching things play out. It was suggested in the strong Nino analogs but still kind of counterintuitive given recent years at least. It seems to help roll higher heights southeast relatively continuously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I agree Ian but I'm not sure it's the just pna ridge working against us as much as not having enough blocking established. Fairly sharp trough on the means in the SW/SoCal area centered around d10 or so. Without a strong block above us the broad trough over the conus isn't getting established. Ridge response to the SW trough is raising heights in the east because the -AO isn't strong enough to suppress heights. The pna ridge adds to the problem because it's rolling forward a bit raising heights eastward in Canada. Everything still looks good but it seems overnight guidance is pushing the best stuff later in time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That PNA ridge isn't a good thing this go I don't think. I'm more and more convinced of that watching things play out. It was suggested in the strong Nino analogs but still kind of counterintuitive given recent years at least. It seems to help roll higher heights southeast relatively continuously. I agree. I believe that the best chances for a East Coast snow storm threat is near the last third of the month of January into early February. We might have to wait for the developing - NAO to really contribute to the pattern. ( If you believe in fairy tales ) Also, what might happen is similar to the video that JB played this morning on WxBell. http://www.weatherbell.com/ JB looked at the weather of mid January 1966 to mid February 1966. There were a series of four storms that affected the Mid Atlantic area, including the Blizzard of 1966 that went up the East Coast. He mentioned that due to overall similarities to the previous December in 1965 and this current December. Although looking at his 1966 map of Jan Canada looks much colder. But who knows, by later this January Canada may indeed gotten colder, but not sure that really matters versus where blocking sets up. Of course on the other end of possibilities there are misses to the South, with Eastern NC and SC scoring big, as I mentioned yesterday. https://twitter.com/webberweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Operational gfs and euro overnight are pretty meh. Higher heights insist on holding on in the east. Nah, this is awesome and totally what we want to see in the first half of Jan (from the just completed 12z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I agree Ian but I'm not sure it's the just pna ridge working against us as much as not having enough blocking established. Fairly sharp trough on the means in the SW/SoCal area centered around d10 or so. Without a strong block above us the broad trough over the conus isn't getting established. Ridge response to the SW trough is raising heights in the east because the -AO isn't strong enough to suppress heights. The pna ridge adds to the problem because it's rolling forward a bit raising heights eastward in Canada. Everything still looks good but it seems overnight guidance is pushing the best stuff later in time now. False start, modeling 15 day penalty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Completely agree - if you are in southern TX or northern Mexico and like snow I'm thinking we in Mid Atlantic see our 1st real threat towards end of Jan or early Feb.. (delayed but not denied, as JB would say) Nah, this is awesome and totally what we want to see in the first half of Jan (from the just completed 12z run) USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_384.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This forum is bipolar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Some classic Ninoining either way. Split flow, ripping STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Looks stormy on the gfs ensembles in the 8-16 day stretch. Big question is can we get any cold air down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 There is one caveat that is starting to show itself in the LR. The SE Ridge. Started to show up on today's EPS. Tonight's 00z EURO for example, Day 9-10, the setup would normally be an amazing one,but the SE ridge ends up being so strong that any storm would probably cut. We'll see, long way out. One benefit to the SE ridge it would help prevent suppression that others have talked about. It has saved us before in blocky patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Greenland block And -EPO and we still have above normal heights. Someone call the geek squad I think our teleconnectors are broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Good consensus for a quick cold shot Monday/Tuesday. Coldest air of the season, but not super remarkable otherwise. Highs near freezing maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 After the month we've had, that cold shot will take a lot of people by surprise. Expect complaints to spike. Schools will close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Don Sutherland's post from this morning seems like the most reasonable approach to this upcoming January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Greenland block And -EPO and we still have above normal heights. Someone call the geek squad I think our teleconnectors are broken. it doesn't instantly fix everything. Have to give the epo AO and nao a little time to work their magic. We're starting from such an awful base state. I'm just as aware of the potential for this next pattern to fail but we have to wait and let it play out. We can really only see into the start of it and then only on the long almost fiction range. If a week from now we still don't see any real potential on operational models then I'll start to get more concerned. It's very early yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Euro ens at least keep hope alive in the 10-15. IMHO, this run looks much better in the lr. Control is fun to look at as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Euro ens at least keep hope alive in the 10-15. IMHO, this run looks much better in the lr. Control is fun to look at as well. I thought the euro op looked ok too. GFS has a boatload of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 12Z EPS again showing potential for EC low around the 11th/12th based on MSLP anomaly maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Greenland block And -EPO and we still have above normal heights. Someone call the geek squad I think our teleconnectors are broken. i think the cold air supply is broken. the teleconnections just measure differences in pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 if you cant get any cold air into eastern us with +PNA -AO -EPO - NAO Looks stormy on the gfs ensembles in the 8-16 day stretch. Big question is can we get any cold air down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 CORRECT 12Z EPS again showing potential for EC low around the 11th/12th based on MSLP anomaly maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 SORRY but this is just I domnt see what is woof worthy Jan7 on 0z 186 h euro its holds some promise but we also have to get the cold air into place 00z EURO @ 186 hours = woof.....PV in great spot, energy crashing into the Southwest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GIVE THE COLD AIR TIME TO COME SOUTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The GFS always hates major pattern changes. I'm not shocked at all that it's op runs and ensembles as a whole have had numerous runs where they haven't looked great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The GFS always hates major pattern changes. I'm not shocked at all that it's op runs and ensembles as a whole have had numerous runs where they haven't looked great I thought the GFS ensemble mean looked more or less pretty consistent for awhile now in the medium-longer range with the overall idea of the pattern. My guess is the Euro ensembles have been similar (though I haven't seen those directly), going by the discussion I've seen in here. Not saying it's going to be right, but the ensemble mean is primarily what I've looked at for that time period. As for the deterministic, yes, that can be all over the place of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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