January Med/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

^ it's happening!

Jokes aside, guidance is locking in with a fairly significant pattern change in the west and npac. And it's encouraging. My hunch right now is its a head fake of sorts and not a new hemispheric regime. However, if changes start showing up in the ao/nao domain space then it could be the real deal.

[WinterWxLuvr]

^^^^ good news because I think the Pacific is the more important player.

Oh, btw, did you see where Ian said it was going to snow the first week of Jan? Makes your Jan 96 redux call look good.

[Amped]

Remember the last time we saw a Greenland block forming on the EURO 240? GFS shows that if the ridge over Europe is a little flatter, then they'll be huge - height anomalies over Greenland instead of a block.

[WxUSAF]

Big ol' Scandanavian ridge on the Euro.  Good sign for starting to weaken the strat vortex of doom. 

[yoda]

Yoda, how many jewels of Cape?

 

1000 diamonds I believe

[Bob Chill]

EPS holds the same general idea. 850 mean temps a little cooler across the conus at the end of the run. +PNA /-EPO and Aleutian low in a decent spot. More below normal heights showing in the deep south than 0z.  Survived another run. 

[das]

Big ol' Scandanavian ridge on the Euro. Good sign for starting to weaken the strat vortex of doom.

I saw HM was tweeting the same thing. Poleward wave to kill that thing...

[Bob Chill]

Big ol' Scandanavian ridge on the Euro.  Good sign for starting to weaken the strat vortex of doom. 

 

Ens showing more influence from that feature with heights over GL. Dare I say there is almost no blue over the NAO domain space at the end of the run... Only a slightly + NAO on the means... Lowest heights around the pole are pushed towards Siberia this run. 

 

Still need some work though. I'd give the overall look a 5 out of 10. 

[mitchnick]

EPS holds the same general idea. 850 mean temps a little cooler across the conus at the end of the run. +PNA /-EPO and Aleutian low in a decent spot. More below normal heights showing in the deep south than 0z. Survived another run.

Euro monthlies have been very consistent the past 3 runs that January and February would offer opportunities. I would be pleasantly surprised if the pattern change materialized by the first week. I hope so.

[Eskimo Joe]

The AO definitely won't be cooperating through the first half of January and probably the latter too.

[Bob Chill]

Euro monthlies have been very consistent the past 3 runs that January and February would offer opportunities. I would be pleasantly surprised if the pattern change materialized by the first week. I hope so.

 

Getting close to telling you to sign up for wxbell... gotta get it inside of 10 days first and make sure it's not a transient deal. Considering we need more work even though it looks promising now, if things start going backwards it will be a bummer. 

[Bob Chill]

Screw it. I'll just post the 5h plot. Let everyone decide for themselves if it looks good or bad. High latitudes keep looking better every run but considering how much change needs to happen, it's a lot of work to get things right. 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

The AO definitely won't be cooperating through the first half of January and probably the latter too. AO12182015.jpg

Haha....seriously?

So you're going to take something that has what, about a 50% verification score at two weeks and extrapolate it another 15-30 days.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Screw it. I'll just post the 5h plot. Let everyone decide for themselves if it looks good or bad. High latitudes keep looking better every run but considering how much change needs to happen, it's a lot of work to get things right.

12zeps1.JPG

The contour lines def look better. At least some colder might filter into the mix.

[CiBill]

Haha....seriously?

So you're going to take something that has what, about a 50% verification score at two weeks and extrapolate it another 15-30 days.

 

Everything you just said applies to people here believing that a pattern change is going to happen in the next few weeks as shown in the long range Euro; except the prediction of +AO at least has more model support.

 

Now, what I'm saying is not that there won't be a pattern change soon, but rather that we should first wait for more definite support from more than just one model, and a more constant, clearer signal of a favorable change in the pattern before we start getting our hopes up.

 

JMHO.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Haha....seriously?

So you're going to take something that has what, about a 50% verification score at two weeks and extrapolate it another 15-30 days.

Everything you just said applies to people here believing that a pattern change is going to happen in the next few weeks as shown in the long range Euro; except the prediction of +AO at least has more model support.

Now, what I'm saying is not that there won't be a pattern change soon, but rather that we should first wait for more definite support from more than just one model, and a more constant, clearer signal of a favorable change in the pattern before we start getting our hopes up.

JMHO.

I agree with that philosophy. I think the ens AO plot he posted is just the GFS ens....so...same theory. Why place that much faith in it?

I have no idea whether there will be a pattern change or not, but I'm pretty sure there's not a reliable tool for predicting the AO 30-45 days in advance. In fact, I'm sure of it.

[clskinsfan]

I would feel much better about a pattern change if the Nino would just show some real signs of rapidly weakening. The latest CPC Enso update is not very encouraging on that end. There really has been little change in this Nino over the past 4 weeks. I fear the change we need is just gonna be too late to help.

[CiBill]

I agree with that philosophy. I think the ens AO plot he posted is just the GFS ens....so...same theory. Why place that much faith in it?

I have no idea whether there will be a pattern change or not, but I'm pretty sure there's not a reliable tool for predicting the AO 30-45 days in advance. In fact, I'm sure of it.

Right, sorry. I actually kind of forgot that the CPC only uses GFS ensembles, rather than multiple models and their ensembles.

 

But still, given the pattern that we're in, I think looking at small details being predicted in the long range of a certain model, that favors a more cold solution (for our part of the region at least) is, imo, not the best course of action, especially since for every small detail that pops up that could favor us, there could be another small detail that might not change current pattern we're in at all.

 

That's why I'm trying to balance our reasoning and observations to include the possibility of a warmer solution coming out of the long range models, since it seems a bit like a lot of people here are focusing more on the details that favor a pattern change, rather than trying to make a non-biased forecast through probability and evidence. Which is absolutely understandable given the "snow drought" we're in, but nonetheless it would still be better if we had more evidence and a more solid signal of any possible pattern change before we jump on to the snow train.

 

Once again, JMHO.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Right, sorry. I actually kind of forgot that the CPC only uses GFS ensembles, rather than multiple models and their ensembles.

But still, given the pattern that we're in, I think looking at small details being predicted in the long range of a certain model, that favor a more cold solution (for our part of the region at least) is, imo, not the best course of action, especially since for every small detail that pops up that could favor us, there could be another small detail that might not change current pattern we're in at all.

That's why I'm trying to balance our reasoning and observations to include the possibility of a warmer solution coming out of the long range models, since it seems a bit like a lot of people here are focusing more on the details that favor a pattern change, rather than trying to make a non-biased forecast through probability and evidence. Which is absolutely understandable given the snow "drought" we're in, but nonetheless it would still be better if we had more evidence and a more solid signal of any possible pattern change before we jump on to the snow train.

Once again, JMHO.

Pretty sure nobody here is on the snow train.

[packbacker]

Screw it. I'll just post the 5h plot. Let everyone decide for themselves if it looks good or bad. High latitudes keep looking better every run but considering how much change needs to happen, it's a lot of work to get things right. 

 

12zeps1.JPG

Very CanSip'ish look...Cohen is getting his textbook setup to take this beast down. The scandi high I thought was more of precursor for splits but need to re-read his paper.

CFS has been on fire so far this winter.

[CiBill]

Pretty sure nobody here is on the snow train.

What I meant was that everyone here is already going nuts over a few details in the LR Euro that might turn the pattern we're in into a pattern more favorable for cold and snow. I think people here shouldn't get their hopes up so soon, and should instead wait a few weeks first to see what the models show later on.

[WinterWxLuvr]

What I meant was that everyone here is already going nuts over a few details in the LR Euro that might turn the pattern we're in into a pattern more favorable for cold and snow. I think people here shouldn't get their hopes up so soon, and should instead wait a few weeks first to see what the models show later on.

Nobody is going nuts. You have to know the personalities here.

One thing about your post....if we wait too many more weeks I can tell you what the models will show....spring coming northward.

[Bob Chill]

What I meant was that everyone here is already going nuts over a few details in the LR Euro that might turn the pattern we're in into a pattern more favorable for cold and snow. I think people here shouldn't get their hopes up so soon, and should instead wait a few weeks first to see what the models show later on.

 

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all have the same look in the NPac in the long range and the only hopes we are getting up are getting the hell out of the record warmth pattern that has been dominant for weeks. Every day that goes by looks better for getting us out of there. That's it. Cold and snow is definitely not being discussed inside of the next couple weeks. 

 

The posted GEFS AO plot is only updated once per day and it's the 6z ensemble run in case anyone wondered which run it's derived from. 

[CiBill]

Nobody is going nuts. You have to know the personalities here.

One thing about your post....if we wait too many more weeks I can tell you what the models will show....spring coming northward.

Oh, believe me, I've been a regular lurker on this site for the past 2 years; I'm quite familiar with a lot of the posters on here.

 

And I'm not asking to wait 10 weeks before we can start believing in the models, but just a couple weeks. You guys will still have plenty of snow chances left by that time.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Oh, believe me, I've been a regular lurker on this site for the past 2 years; I'm quite familiar with a lot of the posters on here.

And I'm not asking to wait 10 weeks before we can start believing in the models, but just a couple weeks. You guys will still have plenty of snow chances left by that time.

Ok

[Bob Chill]

Very CanSip'ish look...Cohen is getting his textbook setup to take this beast down. The scandi high I thought was more of precursor for splits but need to re-read his paper.

CFS has been on fire so far this winter.

Seems like the changes are coming a bit early. Makes me skeptical. Could be a warning shot, then back to crap, and then something more meaningful. Of course the optimistic part of me (which I typically have too much of at times) wants me to believe this is the real deal towards an actual good pattern before mid Jan.

If the 0z Monday eps run looks like this then the weeklies will look much different than we've seen the last couple weeks. Would be interesting to see the weeklies roll d15 forward.

[CAPE]

Screw it. I'll just post the 5h plot. Let everyone decide for themselves if it looks good or bad. High latitudes keep looking better every run but considering how much change needs to happen, it's a lot of work to get things right. 

 

12zeps1.JPG

If the pattern indeed progresses forward from this look, we will be in the game. Not much blue around Greenland, Nice Scandinavian ridge, +PNA and lowest heights around AK working back towards the Aleutians. Hopefully rolling this forward we see a more persistent EPO ridge develop. I still have little faith in the AO being any better than neutral over the next month, and the same pessimism for a legit -NAO. That said, I would just like to see it not be raging positive most of the time, and then we can do okay if the Pacific evolves to being less hostile. I like it. But as you said, it could all fall apart in future runs, and we stay in the crapper..

[mattie g]

Screw it. I'll just post the 5h plot. Let everyone decide for themselves if it looks good or bad. High latitudes keep looking better every run but considering how much change needs to happen, it's a lot of work to get things right.

12zeps1.JPG

The only thing I want to take out of that is that there's not a ton the needs to happen to make that a really nice look for us.

I wouldn't be surprised if that look gets pushed to the right by 10-14 days, but I'm one of those that has been of the mind that we're going fairly big fairly late, so that would be within the timeframe that I've been expecting things to turn around. Perhaps I'm letting that bias my view.

[RDM]

^ it's happening!

Jokes aside, guidance is locking in with a fairly significant pattern change in the west and npac. And it's encouraging. My hunch right now is its a head fake of sorts and not a new hemispheric regime. However, if changes start showing up in the ao/nao domain space then it could be the real deal.

 

 

Bob,  I always enjoy your posts and have learned a lot from you over the years (thank you).  If there was only a way to transform your eternal optimism into sheer willpower, we'd be locked in for a great JFM.  Thanks for always looking on the bright side and trying to find a way. 

[Ian]

I'd be most worried that whatever we are seeing is a relatively short window setting up. Also possible it'll become a more favorable pattern overall but we've still got a lot stacked against us. I imagine we'll be tracking a real threat for the broader region in the Jan  5-10 window or so though.