January Med/Long Range Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

Heh, pretty unusual to get a cluster like this so far out in time.

HR 324 of the EPS

stormsig.JPG

Several of those would be, are, or were (depending upon their location at that time) snow producers.

[Bob Chill]

How many epseses have us with snow in the next 15? What's the mean? Median? High? Low? Standard deviation?

 

About a dozen with 1" or more. The mean is higher than 0z because there are more bigger storms. About 6 members with 6"+. 

 

-AO stronger this run as well. Like seeing that. Hopefully it sticks around for a month or 2 or 3. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

About a dozen with 1" or more. The mean is higher than 0z because there are more bigger storms. About 6 members with 6"+.

-AO stronger this run as well. Like seeing that. Hopefully it sticks around for a month or 2 or 3.

I'm cool with winter until April.

[North Balti Zen]

While the mid Jan pattern is encouraging, just try to remember that there will be a moderation period between the 1st and 10th'(ish).

It's in the 50s again here today - when does the cold arrive that is to be moderated?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[nj2va]

Heh, pretty unusual to get a cluster like this so far out in time.

 

HR 324 of the EPS

 

stormsig.JPG

 

I was coming here to comment on the same.  You can see it show up in the mean anomaly too - 2nd or 3rd run in a row that shows the potential for a low tracking up the coast around the 12th or so.  

[famartin]

I sense the sarcasm, but honestly we just endured a record warm December, and it was looking like we could end up seeing a terrible winter. To actually see a legit pattern change in the makings is awesome. Idk about you & others, but as a winter wx junky I enjoy the chase as much as the actual event. Yeah, there's nothing like the first flakes during a predicted 1-2 foot snowfall, but I get just as excited on a 00z EURO run that drops 1-2 feet 5 days out.

That's sick, please get some counseling.

[Ian]

This place is funny.

[frd]

This is a pretty neat Twitter thread that talks about Super Ninos and snow climo, targeting North of Richmond. Granted, a very small sample size, but some things to think about. I believe Eric Webb use to or maybe he still is posting on the Southeast forum, ( Webbweather)  

 

I remember last year his map and analysis were spot on about the changes coming for the Southeast. When others were talking about the continuing warmth early in the winter he stayed the course in regards to the eventual changes that would arrive.    

 

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/681689883757391873

[Heisy]

That's sick, please get some counseling.

It's too late for me

[Inverted_Trough]

18Z has a pretty decent cold shot for this Monday.  Highs around freezing if it holds.  That's a big shift from the previous runs.

[Wonderdog]

18Z has a pretty decent cold shot for this Monday.  Highs around freezing if it holds.  That's a big shift from the previous runs.

HP is 8 mb stronger than at 12z.

[poolz1]

I miss the old gfs already.  Cant even get a fantasy storm in the LR....what a waste of taxpayer dollars.

[RIC_WX]

This is a pretty neat Twitter thread that talks about Super Ninos and snow climo, targeting North of Richmond. Granted, a very small sample size, but some things to think about. I believe Eric Webb use to or maybe he still is posting on the Southeast forum, ( Webbweather)  

 

I remember last year his map and analysis were spot on about the changes coming for the Southeast. When others were talking about the continuing warmth early in the winter he stayed the course in regards to the eventual changes that would arrive.    

 

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/681689883757391873

I'll take the bait on this one.

I really think the sample size here is small, and the timing of any eventual pattern change is the key, as earlier is obviously better if you are looking to exceed averages anywhere - as more chances one of the frequent southern stream s/w turns the corner when cold air is close by. The only analog that seems to really support his argument is 72-73, he conveniently tosses 82-83 despite having the best overall resemblance to this year so far and makes no real mention of 97-98 where I don't think really anywhere in the eastern coastal plain really saw much snow, north or south.

Because the SE US averages so little snow, one moderate event can easily get a bunch of southern places to seasonal average or above. Not the case at all once you get north of Richmond - it takes a 12"+ or much greater to do that. But, there are plenty of Nino's super and not so exceptional that feature decent one hit wonder snowfalls in the Carolinas, if that is supposed to be the point. And non Nino seasons that underperform in DC but not necessarily in points south, for that matter. Wasn't there a thread recently that indicated RIC outperformed DCA in roughly 1 out of 4 seasons? This isn't limited to super Nino's.

If the ultimate pattern change was delayed until late February or March and we end up cold and suppressed in the MA while the SE cashes in that is another scenario altogether. But this seems like an even rarer thread the needle scenario than what happened in 82-83.

[Ian]

Sample is awful small. We've also had other big snowstorms in strong Ninos like Feb 1958. 72-73 and 82-83, perhaps others haven't looked too much, both had a number of events that missed us to the south.. late season in some cases.

[Amped]

 

It's pretty amazing to get an AO spike to -4 two weeks after it was at +4.

[kurtstack]

Whenever I see the AO index head toward -4 range it brings back memories:

 

[Ian]

The EPS pattern in the woof thread is sick. I mean I kick people for mentioning 09/10 but it's got the key ingredients.. tho we didn't really have a big +PNA then. I'd worry about suppression as is.. then again it's day 13.

[packbacker]

I'll take the bait on this one.

I really think the sample size here is small, and the timing of any eventual pattern change is the key, as earlier is obviously better if you are looking to exceed averages anywhere - as more chances one of the frequent southern stream s/w turns the corner when cold air is close by. The only analog that seems to really support his argument is 72-73, he conveniently tosses 82-83 despite having the best overall resemblance to this year so far and makes no real mention of 97-98 where I don't think really anywhere in the eastern coastal plain really saw much snow, north or south.

Because the SE US averages so little snow, one moderate event can easily get a bunch of southern places to seasonal average or above. Not the case at all once you get north of Richmond - it takes a 12"+ or much greater to do that. But, there are plenty of Nino's super and not so exceptional that feature decent one hit wonder snowfalls in the Carolinas, if that is supposed to be the point. And non Nino seasons that underperform in DC but not necessarily in points south, for that matter. Wasn't there a thread recently that indicated RIC outperformed DCA in roughly 1 out of 4 seasons? This isn't limited to super Nino's.

If the ultimate pattern change was delayed until late February or March and we end up cold and suppressed in the MA while the SE cashes in that is another scenario altogether. But this seems like an even rarer thread the needle scenario than what happened in 82-83.

Eric has done a lot of research on past nino's going back to forever so his sample size is bigger than just the post 1950 strong nino's. But he's just saying climo for NE in strong nino's isn't great, which isn't that unbelievable. Like you said we can get 12" of snow this winter which is 150% of climo and BOS get 40" which is 90% of climo and he is right. But from his exchanges I think, and I may be putting words in his mouth, that the NE could get a clunker (BOS <30") maybe. I really doubt MA to NE finish under climo, active STJ with likely HLB is a winning combo, especially for you guys.

Not sure how you can analog this strong Nino to any other at this point. I guess 73 stands out with BN northwest for the past couple of months and into atleast mid-Jan but that had no HLB all winter. It seems we have a shot, maybe a better than avg shot at HLB for 2nd half of winter. Doesn't do a lot of good though with trough buried in SW though.

The blocky mod+ nino's are just sick patterns for the SE/MA so I guess we go with that...:-/

[Kevin Reilly]

Whenever I see the AO index head toward -4 range it brings back memories:

 

Yes 2009-2010!!  78" in Philadelphia!

[Ian]

I have his whole list. It's definitely helpful and he knows his stuff. I think there's some debate on some of his classifications though I believe for strong etc he went with overall peak regardless of time or length. I may be wrong with that I haven't asked specifically that's just my interpretation. He also "ensemble'izes" them from multiple datasets I believe. From my playing around with it, there's certainly value added with his fuller set.

 

This is DC/Balt using his list of years, compiled by me.

 

(keep in mind this includes a lot of old years. compare to eachother not to current avg which is lower than past)

 

Josh Timlin -- someone over on Twitter -- put together a grouping of multiple stations.

https://sites.google.com/site/timlinmeteorology/blog

 

To me at the least it's muddled here while probably more suggestive of BN across the northeast itself. Possible strong Ninos tend to favor south of our region when it comes to AN... though I sort of see it more as a battlezone myself. The snowless ones are conundrums maybe.

[Bob Chill]

The EPS pattern in the woof thread is sick. I mean I kick people for mentioning 09/10 but it's got the key ingredients.. tho we didn't really have a big +PNA then. I'd worry about suppression as is.. then again it's day 13.

The pna could actually be a bad sign at long leads in this case. EPS and GEFS are showing cold into the deep south. Heck, eps mean 850 is down into northern AL/MS at 12-13 day leads. Considering how ensemble means smooth things it implies that 1) lots of members agree on the setup (good) or 2) there are too many extreme solutions with blocking and amplification (bad for us but good for the southeast).

I've pondered the SE getting hit first and then we get our shot later as things relax beyond d15. Just throwing the idea out there...and I hope we get hit first and last...lol

[mitchnick]

The pna could actually be a bad sign at long leads in this case. EPS and GEFS are showing cold into the deep south. Heck, eps mean 850 is down into northern AL/MS at 12-13 day leads. Considering how ensemble means smooth things it implies that 1) lots of members agree on the setup (good) or 2) there are too many extreme solutions with blocking and amplification (bad for us but good for the southeast).

I've pondered the SE getting hit first and then we get our shot later as things relax beyond d15. Just throwing the idea out there...and I hope we get hit first and last...lol

Lol Bob. I posted 1 minute before you in Dt's thread that the trough looked too progressive for my liking and RIC was better off than BWI. Now I'm scared. You should be too, though much more than me. Lol

[Bob Chill]

Lol Bob. I posted 1 minute before you in Dt's thread that the trough looked too progressive for my liking and RIC was better off than BWI. Now I'm scared. You should be too, though much more than me. Lol

Heh, I just read your post and chuckled. One thing I've learned through the years with ens means beyond d10 is that bad is typically badder and good is typical gooder at long range if everything holds together for a couple days. In this case the signal has grown in strength the last couple days.

Is this year going to be one where the bullseye moves from south to north? I have no idea.

[mitchnick]

Heh, I just read your post and chuckled. One thing I've learned through the years with ens means beyond d10 is that bad is typically badder and good is typical gooder at long range if everything holds together for a couple days. In this case the signal has grown in strength the last couple days.

Is this year going to be one where the bullseye moves from south to north? I have no idea.

At this point, just gimme something to track and let the chips fall where they may.

Sincerely,

Desperate Weenie

[Ian]

The pna could actually be a bad sign at long leads in this case. EPS and GEFS are showing cold into the deep south. Heck, eps mean 850 is down into northern AL/MS at 12-13 day leads. Considering how ensemble means smooth things it implies that 1) lots of members agree on the setup (good) or 2) there are too many extreme solutions with blocking and amplification (bad for us but good for the southeast).

I've pondered the SE getting hit first and then we get our shot later as things relax beyond d15. Just throwing the idea out there...and I hope we get hit first and last...lol

Other strong Ninos prob don't like the PNA for a reason. It's day 13... I dunno.

 

Could be the case as you lay it out too. Still wouldn't anticipate the 'good' pattern lasting terribly long, though we'll see if the -AO really goes that deep. Weeklies haven't been necessarily killing it but I think they've been more OK than not if you don't hold them to a timeframe too closely.

 

Given I didn't look at much while out of town this was the first day I was legitimately sort of excited about a tangible threat. But again we'll see...

[Bob Chill]

Other strong Ninos prob don't like the PNA for a reason. It's day 13... I dunno.

Could be the case as you lay it out too. Still wouldn't anticipate the 'good' pattern lasting terribly long, though we'll see if the -AO really goes that deep. Weeklies haven't been necessarily killing it but I think they've been more OK than not if you don't hold them to a timeframe too closely.

Given I didn't look at much while out of town this was the first day I was legitimately sort of excited about a tangible threat. But again we'll see...

I'm not sure who coined the phrase recency bias but you've said it over the years and I appreciate it. We've sucked ass in the blocking dept for so long that it's hard to accept we might actually get things right

Regardless of scoring or not during the next 2 weeks, having a stable blocking pattern is more important going forward. If we are going that direction the weeklies and para ens are missing it right now. One thing for sure...model watching won't be boring for a while

[kurtstack]

Nice little winter storm with a strong CAD signature on the 0Z GFS for January 10th.  There would certainly be a good bit of frozen for much of the area. 

[nj2va]

Beneficial rains on GFS for Cali esp. SoCal.

[Heisy]

00z EURO @ 186 hours = woof.....PV in great spot, energy crashing into the Southwest....

[Heisy]

There is one caveat that is starting to show itself in the LR. The SE Ridge. Started to show up on today's EPS. Tonight's 00z EURO for example, Day 9-10, the setup would normally be an amazing one,but the SE ridge ends up being so strong that any storm would probably cut. We'll see, long way out.