WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The AO definitely won't be cooperating through the first half of January and probably the latter too.AO12182015.jpg Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The optimism on this board in the last couple of days has been unparalleled in my time on this forum. Hopefully we are few short days away from seeing our first modeled snowstorm within 7 days on the OPs runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Wow, getting so excited for this modeled pattern! At least the pattern will be sweet even if the results on the ground are 40s and clouds. Could be the best pattern since the last epic pattern. Yup, this pattern has "good model runs" written all over it; I'm stoked and plan to stay up late to see the pattern on the Euro. I bet we'll be seeing some seriously seasonal temps and intense high clouds showing up in the 10 day range before we know it! I sense the sarcasm, but honestly we just endured a record warm December, and it was looking like we could end up seeing a terrible winter. To actually see a legit pattern change in the makings is awesome. Idk about you & others, but as a winter wx junky I enjoy the chase as much as the actual event. Yeah, there's nothing like the first flakes during a predicted 1-2 foot snowfall, but I get just as excited on a 00z EURO run that drops 1-2 feet 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Good call. -NAO on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Euro ens looking stormy d10-15. Shutout before then though. A lot of coastals showing up during d10-15. Mixed tracks of course but it's an encouraging sign seeing the pattern favorable for coastal storms even at long leads. Up to 17 ind members showing an inch or more at dca. All during d10-15. I've heard the wxbell snow algo no longer includes zr and sleet as snow on the op euro. Not sure if that's the case with the ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Euro ens looking stormy d10-15. Shutout before then though. A lot of coastals showing up during d10-15. Mixed tracks of course but it's an encouraging sign seeing the pattern favorable for coastal storms even at long leads. Up to 17 ind members showing an inch or more at dca. All during d10-15. I've heard the wxbell snow algo no longer includes zr and sleet as snow on the op euro. Not sure if that's the case with the ens. About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The optimism on this board in the last couple of days has been unparalleled in my time on this forum. Hopefully we are few short days away from seeing our first modeled snowstorm within 7 days on the OPs runs. The first thing that came to mind was the fact I have worn shorts multiple times in December. I think the tide is turning but I also worry about delays as things can get modeled quicker than reality. We will see! I am hopeful too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 -NAO on the Euro Nao or ao ? The chart above showed the arctic oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Wow, getting so excited for this modeled pattern! At least the pattern will be sweet even if the results on the ground are 40s and clouds. Could be the best pattern since the last epic pattern. Yup, this pattern has "good model runs" written all over it; I'm stoked and plan to stay up late to see the pattern on the Euro. I bet we'll be seeing some seriously seasonal temps and intense high clouds showing up in the 10 day range before we know it! I share your frustration and I think we have a little longer to go than most here think, but I do sense this is the beginning of a fundamental change in the pattern. I still like mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Nice to see the 0 degree 850 temps moving north of Maine again next week on the latest GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Nice to see the 0 degree 850 temps moving north of Maine again next week on the latest GFS.. It's coming back south. Problem is, looks like we have to go through a "long" period of cool/cold and dry...warm/wet maybe before we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I share your frustration and I think we have a little longer to go than most here think, but I do sense this is the beginning of a fundamental change in the pattern. I still like mid January.I'm not sure what "most" think but I think everyone here sees the next 10 days don't have much hope as we transition. Then once the cold arrives and holds we might have to wait to get something to time up. It doesn't always happen right away, if at all. Sometimes it's as the pattern breaks or relaxes that we finally get a storm. But I expect by jan 10 we will be into a better pattern and be able to start tracking real threats at least. Might be a while after before we score though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Nice to see the 0 degree 850 temps moving north of Maine again next week on the latest GFS..Yes but all of the indices will be lined up on the models which has to count for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yes but all of the indices will be lined up on the models which has to count for something. Now we worry about suppression...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Suppression around here can happen at 45 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Now we worry about suppression...lol Yup. Gfs squashes everything. Lots of chatter for a threat window around the 9th and again around the 14th. Gfs hints at both but suppresses them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 hand wringing at a 360 hr prog is still silly as f*ck. Let's get the pattern to change first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 hand wringing at a 360 hr prog is still silly as f*ck. Let's get the pattern to change first in BCs defense, not sure he was hand wringing, just kind of pointing out whats going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 While the mid Jan pattern is encouraging, just try to remember that there will be a moderation period between the 1st and 10th'(ish). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Nice to see the 0 degree 850 temps moving north of Maine again next week on the latest GFS.. Not only that, but the warm air advection at 850 mb is coming at us from NW winds from Canada. That just shows you how little cold air there is in Canada right now, that we warm the 850 mb level with a NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The sea surface looks toasty in the gulf and along the east coast: Does that favor large coastal storms? It would be interesting to see what the SST analogs are for this year, including the Atlantic, but I'm not sure where to find those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 in BCs defense, not sure he was hand wringing, just kind of pointing out whats going on. Lol. Just posting fantasy irony to go along with fantasy op disco. On a more serious note...Gefs continues to lock in the cold (realtive) and good storm pattern. I can't remember the last time I've seen such consistency. Oh wait. Yes I can...the torch was very well modeled at long leads...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yup. Gfs squashes everything. Lots of chatter for a threat window around the 9th and again around the 14th. Gfs hints at both but suppresses them. Gfs has been too suppressed and east in the 7-10 day range for a good while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Lol. Just posting fantasy irony to go along with fantasy op disco. On a more serious note...Gefs continues to lock in the cold (realtive) and good storm pattern. I can't remember the last time I've seen such consistency. Oh wait. Yes I can...the torch was very well modeled at long leads...haha Everyone likes to talk about model "chaos" with this pattern change, but I'm fairly certain all the ensembles have done pretty well this year with mid range (10-15 day) guidance. I specifically remember Matt and many others talking a week ago that this coming transition period (Jan 1- 8th) did not look ideal for anything more than seasonable. Everything seems to be going *relatively according to plan. The consensus on a great pattern after the 8th or so is pretty nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yes but all of the indices will be lined up on the models which has to count for something. If I had a dollar for every -NAO the models had predicted over the past two winters I'd be able to buy Ji a life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 If I had a dollar for every -NAO the models had predicted over the past two winters I'd be able to buy Ji a life. I don't recall them ever being in this much agreement about it tanking in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 It's going to suck when we get a coastal and the boiling hot ocean torches our boundary layer for a ice cold rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Everyone likes to talk about model "chaos" with this pattern change, but I'm fairly certain all the ensembles have done pretty well this year with mid range (10-15 day) guidance. I specifically remember Matt and many others talking a week ago that this coming transition period (Jan 1- 8th) did not look ideal for anything more than seasonable. Everything seems to be going *relatively according to plan. The consensus on a great pattern after the 8th or so is pretty nice to see. Agree totally. Ensembles have done a really good job since Dec 1st. We did get a fairly big head fake in Nov with a pattern similar to what we are seeing now. But that was a 1-2 day flash in the pan. This go around guidance has only been getting stronger with it. I'll give props to the GEFS. It was the first to pick up on the rather abrupt shift in heights over the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Heh, pretty unusual to get a cluster like this so far out in time. HR 324 of the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Heh, pretty unusual to get a cluster like this so far out in time. HR 324 of the EPS stormsig.JPG How many epseses have us with snow in the next 15? What's the mean? Median? High? Low? Standard deviation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.