January Med/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

CFS2 has officially flipped on January folks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20151227.201601.gif

[mappy]

A lot of 82/83 references going around....and not just the geese! Lubbock, TX received their largest snow on record in Jan 83. The storm today could come close to that record. I wonder if Ians "wedge" reference occurred during that same storm?

Don't know about the same storm, but last time December had big tornadoes like we've seen was 82

Prelim EF4 from last night

[MJO812]

12Z gefs has a big -AO block come mid january. Mike ventrice posted about it on twitter. It looks like the change will occur the same time as last winter.

[SnowGoose69]

Yes, you could get a 12z 384 thrown at you which would be a kick in the groin.

The GFS has been doing that for days now. It tries to break down the pattern after Day 13 on some op runs and some ensemble members then as soon as that period gets inside day 12 it's unanimously cold

[Amped]

Itshappening.gif

 

Anthony Masiello ‏@antmasiello 1h1 hour ago

The prospects for a 1958 or 1983 like ending in the eastern US have significantly increased in probability. But what form does 2016 take?

 

Anthony Masiello ‏@antmasiello 1h1 hour ago

What do I mean by that? Well don't assume the MR western Canadian ridge holds for next 2 months? -NAO timing takes longer to manifest...

 

 

(this is HM)

 

 

I'll take -EPO vs El Nino firehose,  a strong -NAO is just going to suppress things too much. 

[CAPE]

I'll take -EPO vs El Nino firehose,  a strong -NAO is just going to suppress things too much. 

Nino is a given. Give me a -NAO in winter all day every day. Why do you think it would  suppress? In a Nino year especially, blocking gives us the best overall shot of storms taking a favorable track up along/off the coast and not cutting west. Not to mention a sustained -EPO is not very likely with a strong Nino.

[Bob Chill]

Eps shows a brief 2-3 day temp/height relaxation d9-11 followed by a really strong signal for cold D12-15 across the eastern 2/3rds of the conus.

H5 looks really good with broad conus trough centered over the ms valley. Noticeable uptick in storminess for our area showing up D12-15.

[WxUSAF]

Eps shows a brief 2-3 day temp/height relaxation d9-11 followed by a really strong signal for cold D12-15 across the eastern 2/3rds of the conus.

H5 looks really good with broad conus trough centered over the ms valley. Noticeable uptick in storminess for our area showing up D12-15.

GEFS from last night suggested this as well (haven't looked today).  Looked like we're northern stream dominated for the 1st week of January, but then maybe the southern stream gets active after that.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if we get a threat or two in the short-mid range during the northern stream-dominated period.  Nothing major, but hopefully we get something that can get us on the board for the year. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

GEFS from last night suggested this as well (haven't looked today). Looked like we're northern stream dominated for the 1st week of January, but then maybe the southern stream gets active after that. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we get a threat or two in the short-mid range during the northern stream-dominated period. Nothing major, but hopefully we get something that can get us on the board for the year.

If we are northern stream dominated, I suppose a clipper is possible. It would be hard for models to see one this far out.

[Bob Chill]

GEFS from last night suggested this as well (haven't looked today). Looked like we're northern stream dominated for the 1st week of January, but then maybe the southern stream gets active after that. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we get a threat or two in the short-mid range during the northern stream-dominated period. Nothing major, but hopefully we get something that can get us on the board for the year.

12z eps shows zero snow through d10. Doesn't mean that can't change but for now it looks like the pattern not only ends our major warmth but also may end the wet period. Just have to let it play out.

D10-15 has about a dozen members showing an inch or more in DC with a handful of decent events.

[psuhoffman]

The GFS has been doing that for days now. It tries to break down the pattern after Day 13 on some op runs and some ensemble members then as soon as that period gets inside day 12 it's unanimously cold

It was doing the same thing for weeks trying to get cold towards the end of the op runs.

[BristowWx]

The GFS has been doing that for days now. It tries to break down the pattern after Day 13 on some op runs and some ensemble members then as soon as that period gets inside day 12 it's unanimously cold

That theme continues this morning on the GFS op runs. Even disregarding their wacky solutions I can see how other factors can hurt our chances in the east for winter precip like the trough being too east or the NAO not cooperating. I know many of us did well with a +NAO in the past especially you guys further north. But having all the right ingredients doesn't mean the sauce will taste good every time. Patience is the operative word this year to see some flakes.

[isohume]

It was doing the same thing for weeks trying to get cold towards the end of the op runs.

 

Very strange an op model at low-res range wafts/amplifies so much. I think the GFS wants us to have winter, but it just cant justify it at this juncture? 

[poolz1]

That theme continues this morning on the GFS op runs. Even disregarding their wacky solutions I can see how other factors can hurt our chances in the east for winter precip like the trough being too east or the NAO not cooperating. I know many of us did well with a +NAO in the past especially you guys further north. But having all the right ingredients doesn't mean the sauce will taste good every time. Patience is the operative word this year to see some flakes.

I'll be the first to admit that my weenie brain can interfere with logic....while the pattern is tempting to jump on and it certainly gets the winter juices flowing, I agree that patience will still be needed.  But it seems this is the way these things usually work.  A beautiful pattern  sometimes doesn't produce but when that pattern relaxes, morphs or alters just a bit, that is when the storms come.  

[CAPE]

I'll be the first to admit that my weenie brain can interfere with logic....while the pattern is tempting to jump on and it certainly gets the winter juices flowing, I agree that patience will still be needed.  But it seems this is the way these things usually work.  A beautiful pattern  sometimes doesn't produce but when that pattern relaxes, morphs or alters just a bit, that is when the storms come.  

I think the op runs are going to have a tough time with details in the long range with so much change going on. 0z GEFS looks really nice late in the run, with -AO, neutral/ -NAO, and what looks like a piece of the perturbed PV sliding southward. Some recent GFS op runs have had this feature moving pretty far south into SE Canada.

[WhiteoutMD]

FYI the Weather Geek episodes with Joe Bastardi are now posted on the weather channel.  I never saw them live and couldn't find them online until now.  I'm a weather geek just like all of us you really see the passion in Joe and he reminds me of me with regards to not sleeping during big events obviously hes more involved then me. 

 

Just thought I would pass on the info.

 

 

Part 1

http://www.weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/the-lone-ranger

 

 

Part 2

http://www.weather.com/tv/shows/wx-geeks/video/a-true-weather-geek

[nj2va]

I think the op runs are going to have a tough time with details in the long range with so much change going on. 0z GEFS looks really nice late in the run, with -AO, neutral/ -NAO, and what looks like a piece of the perturbed PV sliding southward. Some recent GFS op runs have had this feature moving pretty far south into SE Canada.

 

GEFS is being the most aggressive of the global models regarding the NAO as it continues to go even lower as we approach mid-month, whereas the EPS and Canadian advertise more of a constant neutral/-NAO.  It'd be interesting to look at analogs if the GEFS is correct regarding a mid-month -AO/-NAO.

[frd]

Interesting, Ryan mentioned last night the Euro parallel has a less severe drop in the AO  

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/681314508044906496

 

From WeatherBELL 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

If the day 15 eps is close to right we have a good chance second half of January to cash in.

[Bob Chill]

Interesting, Ryan mentioned last night the Euro parallel has a less severe drop in the AO  

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/681314508044906496

 

From WeatherBELL 

 

 

 

 

 

It's misleading. When you look at the actual h5 and pressure plots, the parallel has much higher heights over the davis straight and greenland than the operational. The difference is the closed upper level low/lp system moving ne off the tip of greenland is slower on  the parallel so heights and pressure are lower in the north atlantic on the parallel. In reality, the parallel is a better look regardless of the numerical index. 

[frd]

Thanks Bob. Appreciate your insights.  

 

I am thinking we are going to do well later in the month, and especially February. Seems like the NAO will be the last thing to go in our favor.

 

Bob, what's your thoughts on the Kara Sea High pressure system. Looks pretty crazy those heights forecasted.  

 

That area is close to  JB's Caspian connection near 70 N and 70 W.  I think the Kara Sea is 77 N and 77 W. so close but not exact.

 

Thanks 

 

It's misleading. When you look at the actual h5 and pressure plots, the parallel has much higher heights over the davis straight and greenland than the operational. The difference is the closed upper level low/lp system moving ne off the tip of greenland is slower on  the parallel so heights and pressure are lower in the north atlantic on the parallel. In reality, the parallel is a better look regardless of the numerical index. 

[Bob Chill]

Thanks Bob. Appreciate your insights.  

 

I am thinking we are going to do well later in the month, and especially February. Seems like the NAO will be the last thing to go in our favor.

 

Bob, what's your thoughts on the Kara Sea High pressure system. Looks pretty crazy those heights forecasted.  

 

That area is close to  JB's Caspian connection near 70 N and 70 W.  I think the Kara Sea is 77 N and 77 W. so close but not exact.

 

Thanks 

 

I don't really drill down that far when assessing where we are and where we might be going so I can't really add anything in regards to specific high placements. However, just about everything is working in tandem right now to flood the high latitudes with + height anomalies. It's coming from both sides. 

 

Many cases in the past have shown that when the high latitudes are dominated by + or - height anomalies, they are persistent and hard to budge. There are plenty of examples of breakdowns and flips after persistence has run its course. I don't think anybody saw the big flip coming during the beginning of Jan. All speculation identified mid-late Jan as the earliest probable window. But on some levels it makes complete sense. First, the rather intense +AO regime began back at the beginning of Nov. They typically last 45-60 days so the timing seems right. Second, it fits the general Nino climo h5 patterns. Third, it fits the SAI/SCE theory (yea, this one has been under intense scrutiny but things seem to be going as planned this year unlike the last couple). 

 

I did dig up some previous cases where the AO was anomalous and in a persistent positive phase beginning in Nov that flipped during winter:

 

04-05

 

 

 

90-91

 

 

82-83

 

 

 

79-80

 

 

 

82-83 is obviously the best analog match because of ENSO but we certainly can't assume what we are seeing now is an all out flip into a 45-60 blocking period. At least not yet. Come mid-Jan we'll know more. A relax back to + for a time during Jan wouldn't surprise me at all. In some ways I'm kind of expecting it but guidance really looks good for now. 

[usedtobe]

THe D+11 superensemble has the best look of the season as it it taking on Nino characteristics with below normal heights across the south and above normal across Canada and Greenland.  A nice negative AO and even NAo though the Atlantic still needs a little work. 

 

 

Personally, I like to see the heights across Iceland into the Baffin Bay area be a little higher and the negative to our south be stronger but that's nit picking.  The Euro ensembles from last night had no members offering snow though day 10 because the northern stream was still dominant and the through axis on the progs is too far east.  My guess is the chances of snow reamin below normal for the next 10 days, then maybe they go up to normal or even above normal though,  the progs themselves in tday 11 to 15 timmeframe are not particularly cold and are even a tad above normal when looking at the raw data but looking at the analogs,  slightly below normal seems more likely.  The caveat is any time a shortwave digs to the great lakes and is accompanied by a surface low across southern Canada,  we might warm up to little above normal until it get by us and drags down the next shot of cooler air.  The other caveat is the temps over Canada have been running really warm so getting really cold air into the region may take awhile even with the giant ridge.  If it holds you have to thing we will see some arctic shots. 

 

4 of the 10 analogs centered on day 11 offered a DCA snowstorm within 4 days of the centered mean.   The two 1978 analogs even gave us 4 inch storms.  To me right now, the pattern looks more like 1978 then 1983 though 1983 really didn't get going until Feb for us. 

 

I won't be doing a 2 week outlook until Thursday and won't be around for the next couple of days.  No doubt if something starts looking good, there are others who will jump on it.  Heck some will jump on just about anything. 

[Kevin Reilly]

Very strange an op model at low-res range wafts/amplifies so much. I think the GFS wants us to have winter, but it just cant justify it at this juncture? 

Kind of like during tropical season when there is not one sniff of anything in the Atlantic and the GFS comes to August and says climo says there should be a category 3 or 4 Hurricane somewhere so let's just put one here in the Lesser Antillies and let it move towards the East Coast.

[Heisy]

That PNA looks rock solid, the Atlantic just isn't cooperating and the trough axis is just too far east, happy we're seeing some kind of change from the crap December though. It is going to take time though 

[Wonderdog]

I like the fact that that lp off the SE coast has popped up again on 01/05/2016.

[Heisy]

Okay, the OP 12z EURO Day 9-10 pattern is one of the best I've seen all year. If that comes close to verifying we'd likely see our first snow by mid-month. PV is in a good spot, some ridging around Greenland. +PNA wioth energy undercutting the ridge. 

 

[frd]

 

Okay, the OP 12z EURO Day 9-10 pattern is one of the best I've seen all year. If that comes close to verifying we'd likely see our first snow by mid-month. PV is in a good spot, some ridging around Greenland. +PNA wioth energy undercutting the ridge. 

 

nice.png

 

 

 

Agreeded, and on a side note, HM's thread over at Twitter is a positive one with dicussions about the NAO going down and other goodies. Things are certainly progressing nicely. 

[Ian]

Like I said jan 5-10 range.

[Eskimo Joe]

Agreeded, and on a side note, HM's thread over at Twitter is a positive one with dicussions about the NAO going down and other goodies. Things are certainly progressing nicely. 

There's probably some Rule 34 reference to this, but I don't want to know.