Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Lots of incredulity among 40N that a super strong Nino is behaving like a super strong nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Isotherm is a great poster. Knows a lot about some complicated processes in the atmosphere. On a less complicated note...it's starting to look probable that the period after the pna spike is going to be dry. Trough axis is too far east. Ops and ensembles have agreed for multiple runs that shortwaves embedded in the flow can't amplify until well offshore or just get sheared to oblivion. No big deal though. A more favorable pattern in general looks to continue through mid month. Hopefully through mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Isotherm is a great poster. Knows a lot about some complicated processes in the atmosphere. On a less complicated note...it's starting to look probable that the period after the pna spike is going to be dry. Trough axis is too far east. Ops and ensembles have agreed for multiple runs that shortwaves embedded in the flow can't amplify until well offshore or just get sheared to oblivion. No big deal though. A more favorable pattern in general looks to continue through mid month. Hopefully through mid March After all this warm and wet, it only seems logical we go cold and dry. Plus its one of those weather things we seem to excel at..along with heat and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Isotherm is a great poster. Knows a lot about some complicated processes in the atmosphere. On a less complicated note...it's starting to look probable that the period after the pna spike is going to be dry. Trough axis is too far east. Ops and ensembles have agreed for multiple runs that shortwaves embedded in the flow can't amplify until well offshore or just get sheared to oblivion. No big deal though. A more favorable pattern in general looks to continue through mid month. Hopefully through mid March man do we suck at winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If Isotherm is right in his analysis, isn't it logical to conclude the kind of changes he is talking about will result in model chaos during January which will lower the reliability of the models in the longer range (more so than usual)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yes. Model chaos could be it but my guess is steep east based western ridge (if that is such a thing) and no Atlantic blocking. But I will remain optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 He is, and he was one of the first I remember calling for a change when we were in the midst of the uber torch. Learned a lot from him. Anyway, I haven't been following the pattern evolution over the last few days. Sucks that the trough axis is projected to be too far east. The latest GFS op seems to bring in nice cold very early in the year. Oh well, if we can't get something well placed and well timed, having a pattern that isn't in and out in 48 hours is good to have to extend our chances for chances, and that looks to be the case...right now at least. Flipping from persistent warmth straight into cold and snow isn't how it works here unfortunately. Will be nice to get winter type of airmasses either way. Looking forward to having temps on our side for anything that pops up in the medium range. We've been stuck looking beyond 10 days for a month and a half. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 82-83 wedgefest lately. It's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I wonder if the record-setting storm in the Bering Sea two weeks ago is playing a big part in the abrupt pattern shift that's upcoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z gefs continue to up the stakes in the 11-15. Starting to feel more confident of a nice pattern developing for a period of time during peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Quite the wound up storm off the se coast on Jan 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Quite the wound up storm off the se coast on Jan 5th. Just looking at that. A 992! Need some blocking, but I don't see it. Maybe it will show up in future runs? Fingers crossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Need some blocking, but I don't see it. Well, aside from the mega -AO that the GEFS is advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I would be interesting to see that 5 Jan storm could trend west over time. went from practically nothing at 18z..to something more 0z but still a fish food event...to almost an OBX special 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 CFSV turning to more normal temps recently, also appears the QBO is dropping faster than thought. The declining QBO may be a factor in the development of high latitude blocking near the pole as we move into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Went through all the warm ENSO January's since 1950 to see if I could find an analog to the pattern being advertised on the GEFS. Here's the 6z GEFS at 384hr: Interestingly (and unusually for an ensemble mean) the -AO continues to get stronger as you move farther into January on the GEFS. The best analog I could find for this pattern was January 1977: Of course, January 1977 was known for record cold, which I have a hard time believing we're going to see given how warm Canada has been, but FWIW. Second analog was January 1970: It's not quite right out west, but the high latitude blocking and Pac jet look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Well, aside from the mega -AO that the GEFS is advertising. Oh well there's that I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The arctic oscillation index looks very interesting. It appears it continues its downward descent in a stepwise fashion and looks to trend down even further out in time, possibly joined by the NAO later in January. To add more interest the SOI index is forecasted to really take a dive in 10 days or less and this drop may coincide favorably with other indexes by mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Went through all the warm ENSO January's since 1950 to see if I could find an analog to the pattern being advertised on the GEFS. Here's the 6z GEFS at 384hr: f384.gif Interestingly (and unusually for an ensemble mean) the -AO continues to get stronger as you move farther into January on the GEFS. The best analog I could find for this pattern was January 1977: 8f5NKXMAow.png Of course, January 1977 was known for record cold, which I have a hard time believing we're going to see given how warm Canada has been, but FWIW. Second analog was January 1970: G2fqfs0K93.png It's not quite right out west, but the high latitude blocking and Pac jet look similar. January 1970 was frigid as well. There have only been 5 Januaries with a lower monthly mean temp than that month at the current DCA location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Interestingly, the gefs has continued to lead the way over the euro ens with the speed and expanse of the flip. It will be nice to enter a winter pattern in less than a week. It's not a good snow storm pattern but at least the historic warmth will become a memory instead of a daily experience. From how it looks now we'll be in northern stream dominated flow so any snow chances during most of the first week of Jan will be sneaky and light precip. During d10-15 guidance is pretty much in agreement that we are transitioning into a hemispheric lw pattern that is unquestionably the best storm pattern we've seen since 2010. Doesn't mean we'll get one of course but it definitely should get everyone's attention on the coast if what is being advertised verifies. I'm slowly becoming convinced that we are potentially entering a long term blocking pattern. All guidance is pointing towards a fairly strong -ao and it's not moving back in time. The signal is actually getting stronger every day. Past cases where the ao flips from a dominant + phase to a lasting negative phase usually have a transition period. Doesn't look like that is the case this time. A lot of things are working in tandem to flip things quick. Almost all previous cases when the ao flips to at least minus 1-2 and holds for a week it signifies the beginning of a long duration event. I'll look at data more closely this afternoon but my memory is telling me that a 30-60 day blocking period is the most probable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It appears that the fish storm on 01/05/2016 is acting like it's being blocked, for at least a while. Almost a Cape Hatteras event as it is now depicted and "only" 8 days or so away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I know I'll be told that they are local, but I won't believe it. Yesterday I first heard, then saw at a very high elevation, Canadian geese heading south. I usually hear/see them late October or early November, but never did this year. Soooo, the cold is coming, with snow to follow I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I know I'll be told that they are local, but I won't believe it. Yesterday I first heard, then saw at a very high elevation, Canadian geese heading south. I usually hear/see them late October or early November, but never did this year. Soooo, the cold is coming, with snow to follow I'm sure. They are here... and not local. Been seeing them hanging out in the farm fields the last few days, eating up the winter wheat lol. They seem to really like it on the mid/upper eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 ha ha. Hope you didn't take my post the wrong way. Bird migration occurs for a variety of reasons, food and climate being among them. Yup. The Canadian snow geese arrive here late November pretty much every year, regardless of temperature. And they stay here into March even though it gets pretty darn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 A lot of 82/83 references going around....and not just the geese! Lubbock, TX received their largest snow on record in Jan 83. The storm today could come close to that record. I wonder if Ians "wedge" reference occurred during that same storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 ha ha. Hope you didn't take my post the wrong way. Bird migration occurs for a variety of reasons, food and climate being among them. I agree to an extent. But I do see an increase as soon as the NE gets into their first wintry set up. It probably is a combination of both. But I often see/hear them at night before the patter to colder occurs. Maybe it is coincidence, but I have to believe it is somewhat related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Itshappening.gif Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago The prospects for a 1958 or 1983 like ending in the eastern US have significantly increased in probability. But what form does 2016 take? Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago What do I mean by that? Well don't assume the MR western Canadian ridge holds for next 2 months? -NAO timing takes longer to manifest... (this is HM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Hype train picking up speed. I just hope we aren't disappointed if all the indices line up and we strike out. Remember that we get many storms from sneaky less-than-ideal patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yes, you could get a 12z 384 thrown at you which would be a kick in the groin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Hype train picking up speed. I just hope we aren't disappointed if all the indices line up and we strike out. Remember that we get many storms from sneaky less-than-ideal patterns. Yea, we've wasted many more good looks than scored over the years. That's why we really need the current progs to become stable and not just a 1 week window. Our region is a "give us enough chances and we eventually get something" kind of place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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