WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GFS forecast low position for Mon eve is now about 400 miles north and slightly west of its forecast position from this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I thought the consensus around here was that it'd take a while for meaningful change, though I guess this Nino is certainly capable of doing anything. As for what results, you're right. It's one thing to see pretty colors in the right places on the map. It's another thing to get production. More like an urban myth.. patterns can change quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 More like an urban myth.. patterns can change quick. Especially when it's a good pattern at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 More like an urban myth.. patterns can change quick. They can but in this case is pretty surprising considering the monster PV. I don't fully understand the strat/trop connection though. Those that are much more skilled with that stuff were all saying "no blocking for you!" just a few days ago. OTOH- we've seen plenty of "quick flips" over the years for better or worse. Let's just hope it isn't transient this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Even those who claim they are knowledgeable about SSW can't explain if/how/why there is a connection to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 They can but in this case is pretty surprising considering the monster PV. I don't fully understand the strat/trop connection though. Those that are much more skilled with that stuff were all saying "no blocking for you!" just a few days ago. OTOH- we've seen plenty of "quick flips" over the years for better or worse. Let's just hope it isn't transient this time...[/quote And of course it hasn't happened yet. As fast as it has been modeled doesn't mean the next runs can't be different. Hope not but not out the realm of possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 They can but in this case is pretty surprising considering the monster PV. I don't fully understand the strat/trop connection though. Those that are much more skilled with that stuff were all saying "no blocking for you!" just a few days ago. OTOH- we've seen plenty of "quick flips" over the years for better or worse. Let's just hope it isn't transient this time... I've barely looked at anything recently since I'm out of town but it looked like we'd get an -ao for a while to me.. Tho admittedly I thought it would be transient if/when it happens. Then again I have no clue what the models show now except for the snapshots here so this comment of mine is rather useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I've barely looked at anything recently since I'm out of town but it looked like we'd get an -ao for a while to me.. Tho admittedly I thought it would be transient if/when it happens. Then again I have no clue what the models show now except for the snapshots here so this comment of mine is rather useless. we forgive you.... Its Christmas!! Will be interesting to see if the Euro add's candy canes or coal to our stockings today. Despite the outcome, more sensible weather is headed our way and is good enough for now. Would love to see the "flip" w/ the Nino though, as it would definitely make one wonder as to the magnitude of SSW events and how important a role they play. Merry Christmas all. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12z GEFS continues Christmas with what looks to be a bit of a 50/50 low forming towards the end of the run, per my weenie eyes. Courtesy: WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12z GEFS continues Christmas with what looks to be a bit of a 50/50 low forming towards the end of the run, per my weenie eyes. Courtesy: WxBell That's a really good pattern for us to have with a southern stream..we'd probably get a snowstorm out of that, at least in the interior fantasy range, but that is the best pattern I've seen anyone post so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Negative AO, but not where we want to see the blocking. That epic Eurasia block is interesting though, can't remember the last time I saw one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Hope it gets cold at least. This weather sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Hope it gets cold at least. This weather sucks. Even cold and dry is better than this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 New JAMSTEC is out, could do better on precipitation, but it looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 New JAMSTEC is out, could do better on precipitation, but it looks pretty good.Considering how warm December has been, January and February would have to be almost frigid to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Even cold and dry is better than this crap.I took a close look at the 12z euro ens this evening. Even though the mean look is good, d10-15 is pretty dry. In my brain h5 looks pretty good but the mean slp panels show expansive cold but moderating hp anchored in the middle of the country and not much storminess in our area. Considering how much change is going on with late range modeling lately, one run doesn't mean much at all. I'm more interested in seeing if a good winter pattern sets in for the balance of Jan and not just a week. My bar for the month of Jan in my yard is 5-6". Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Just be happy it's under 60 degrees for the first time in days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Is that what I think it is in southern Hudsons Bay at the end of the gfs run? Lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151226+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Don't see any specific snow threats in the next 10 days, but beginning to get excited that we MAY (don't want to jinx it) have ourselves a pretty tasty pattern come Jan 5th om Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Is that what I think it is in southern Hudsons Bay at the end of the gfs run? Lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151226+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model The PV on the move? Finally? Or not. But we can hope. Lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GFS really goes to work on the Stratospheric PV. There's a nice Wave 1 and Wave 2 post 240 but it's still nowhere close to splitting in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Highzenberg is in full swing seeing sick patterns a mere 10 days away. That's one sign winter has arrived, at least in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Highzenberg is in full swing seeing sick patterns a mere 10 days away. That's one sign winter has arrived, at least in the models. We'll be shoveling feet of pattern soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Oh look more 60s and rain for the next storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Oh look more 60s and rain for the next storm! Out to 192 on GFS...nation looks seasonably cold and dry. Maybe I am not seeing the hidden potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Once the cold air settles in, you'll have all the snow you'll ever want with the southern stream interaction. Patience, patience!! quote name="BristowWX" post="3813194" timestamp="1451147926"]Out to 192 on GFS...nation looks seasonably cold and dry. Maybe I am not seeing the hidden potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Later in the 12z run, it seems we actually get into a Northern stream situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Later in the 12z run, it seems we actually get into a Northern stream situation. Fastest 200mb winds are further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 End of the gefs continues to look more and more impressive. I would think tracking should ensue here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Once the cold air settles in, you'll have all the snow you'll ever want with the southern stream interaction. Patience, patience!!quote name="BristowWX" post="3813194" timestamp="1451147926"]Out to 192 on GFS...nation looks seasonably cold and dry. Maybe I am not seeing the hidden potential. Ok. You paint a pretty picture....I'm standing fast. It does look encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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