snowman19 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 We still have a long way to go with the Monday night/Tuesday event but this will be strictly a New England snow/ice event IMO. I don't know why the NYC forum is rejoicing right now. This has all the earmarks of moving north and I doubt NYC even sees as much as a half inch out of it. Guaranteed the Euro ensembles look different from the operational. SWFE historically strongly favor New England anyway, not NYC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 We still have a long way to go with the Monday night/Tuesday event but this will be strictly a New England snow/ice event IMO. I don't know why the NYC forum is rejoicing right now. This has all the earmarks of moving north and I doubt NYC even sees as much as a half inch out of it. Guaranteed the Euro ensembles look different from the operational. SWFE historically strongly favor New England anyway, not NYC south Um... wrong forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 More suited for banter probably but look at the EPO on this 12z euro run. It just tanks starting on the 29th and stays strongly negative through the first few days of Jan. Weaker signal but still shown around the same time on the 00z EPS. Very nice PNA/EPO combination, but no AO/NAO help. Yeah but how short is the window and how fast do we torch again...that's what we should be looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 We still have a long way to go with the Monday night/Tuesday event but this will be strictly a New England snow/ice event IMO. I don't know why the NYC forum is rejoicing right now. This has all the earmarks of moving north and I doubt NYC even sees as much as a half inch out of it. Guaranteed the Euro ensembles look different from the operational. SWFE historically strongly favor New England anyway, not NYC south Not paying attention to any of the trends huh? And why would you be posting in this forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Yeah but how short is the window and how fast do we torch again...that's what we should be looking at April is my guess on the next torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 April is my guess on the next torch. Looks like anomalous warmth is over soon. My guess is we go through some ups and downs in Jan but awfulness could be over for the balance of the remainder of met winter. Otoh- high end cold may never happen for an extended period. Just a typical nino style Wag. I really like what is happening around the pole and pna region. I could envision an extended period that will offer some chances and not a hit and run type of deal. But I'm an optimist so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Looks like anomalous warmth is over soon. My guess is we go through some ups and downs in Jan but awfulness could be over for the balance of the remainder of met winter. Otoh- high end cold may never happen for an extended period. Just a typical nino style Wag. I really like what is happening around the pole and pna region. I could envision an extended period that will offer some chances and not a hit and run type of deal. But I'm an optimist so... Keep it coming Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Am I allowed to post this or no? If not, let me know and I will delete the post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 About a dozen eps members support something similar to the GFS idea. Still not a strong signal but double what it was from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 At this point, it doesn't matter to me. My wife and I took off next week so I'm chasing. And with our plan to go somewhere Monday to Wednesday, timing is perfect. Just a matter of exactly where. Personally, I think it comes further south in time, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 About a dozen eps members support something similar to the GFS idea. Still not a strong signal but double what it was from the 0z run. By support do you mean 1-2 sloppy inches before the rain? Or just some snow in the air? I would look for myself, but I cancelled my WxBell subscription until the first real threat emerges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 By support do you mean 1-2 sloppy inches before the rain? Or just some snow in the air? I would look for myself, but I cancelled my WxBell subscription until the first real threat emerges. The chance at any frozen (snow/sleet). A couple have what looks to be a period of decent snow but it's hard to say since ind member panels are slp/precip/surface temps. No midlevels. We all know how screwed up the snow algo is @ wxbell. Other news...eps is caving to the gefs for a -ao developing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 At this point, it doesn't matter to me. My wife and I took off next week so I'm chasing. And with our plan to go somewhere Monday to Wednesday, timing is perfect. Just a matter of exactly where. Personally, I think it comes further south in time, but we'll see. I agree, the cut offs so far in Oct/Nov trended south inside 5-6 days. GFS/GEFS leading the way so far but inside 84 hours I would think the EPS takes over. That was a big jump on the EPS...maybe this front ends you guys and then you dry slot as it tracks over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The chance at any frozen (snow/sleet). A couple have what looks to be a period of decent snow but it's hard to say since ind member panels are slp/precip/surface temps. No midlevels. We all know how screwed up the snow algo is @ wxbell. Other news...eps is caving to the gefs for a -ao developing... That last bit is the real news. Sure we could luck out with perfect timing but with the epo and Pna looking to cooperate and an active storm track if we could get some AO help things could get really good around here in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The chance at any frozen (snow/sleet). A couple have what looks to be a period of decent snow but it's hard to say since ind member panels are slp/precip/surface temps. No midlevels. We all know how screwed up the snow algo is @ wxbell. Other news...eps is caving to the gefs for a -ao developing... I did notice the -AO look now showing up on the eps. IMO, the eps has trended toward the gefs in the 11-15 over the course of the past few weeks. In other words, gefs have lead the way. Im just a weenie and have no data to back that up...just going by the data in my head, which has a tendency to be contaminated this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 18z GFS has 0c 850 line on Mason-Dixon line at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Strong CAD sig at 102 102 is IP and 105/108 barely snow at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Strong CAD sig at 102 102 is IP and 105/108 barely snow at DCA The lower levels look warmer, slightly, on the crude maps. That doesn't make sense given a stronger and better positioned high and a slightly further west low.Long way to go but I suspect we need that low a bit farther east for heavier precip and maybe a touch slower as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Doesn't the GFS sometimes underestimate CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Doesn't the GFS sometimes underestimate CAD? Thought that was the Euro. They both do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Doesn't the GFS sometimes underestimate CAD? I think they all do until you're within about 3 days of the event, and they still seem to play catch up right up until the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Just gotta get the stupid 588dm contour out of the gulf and Caribbean and we might have a shot at some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Weeklies look like standard nino stuff through the end of the run. AN temps on the means but acceptable h5 pattern weeks 3-4. Might get some ao/nao cooperation after all. Not a strong signal or perfect setup there but AN heights in the ao/nao space show up. Active STJ both weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Weeklies look like standard nino stuff through the end of the run. AN temps on the means but acceptable h5 pattern weeks 3-4. Might get some ao/nao cooperation after all. Not a strong signal or perfect setup there but AN heights in the ao/nao space show up. Active STJ both weeks. It's nice they added 5/7 days means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It's nice they added 5/7 days means. Yea, it's nice. Also added 850 temp contours. Wxbell does a good job keeping weenies sucked in. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yea, it's nice. Also added 850 temp contours. Wxbell does a good job keeping weenies sucked in. LolAlmost about time. I'm still a little torn over Wxbell and Accu. Does Wxbell have skewts for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Hearing that we have an active stj is music to my ears. The pattern overall is so so. Lowest heights biased in the SW and the epo ridge relaxes. However, it's far far better than anything we saw in Dec. That's the burning question right now. Do we get a taste of winter in early Jan and then go back to agony or are we in the game? Weeklies would imply we are in the game at least. Even with temps AN weeks 3-4, mean 0c 850 contour stays south of us the whole period. If any month can produce with AN temps on the means it would be Jan. And it doesn't look like a dry pattern so there's that. Lastly, considering we look to be going through a rather abrupt pattern change that wasn't modeled well its hard to have any confidence in 15-30+ day guidance. Interesting stuff going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Almost about time. I'm still a little torn over Wxbell and Accu. Does Wxbell have skewts for the Euro? Nope. Unless I haven't uncovered it yet. Wxbell is loaded to the gills with all kinds of time sucking model data. Get a 7 day free trial and then after you get sucked in and start paying...take one for the team and get accuwx too for soundings...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Based off Raleigh's GFS individ ensembles, some of them are pretty tasty C000/P001/P002/P006/P007/P012/P014/P015/P016/P020 are all decent hits and have DCA at 2" or more of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Nope. Unless I haven't uncovered it yet. Wxbell is loaded to the gills with all kinds of time sucking model data. Get a 7 day free trial and then after you get sucked in and start paying...take one for the team and get accuwx too for soundings...lolWelp, that's what I was sorta thinking since everybody has Wxbell and very few "usual" posters seem to have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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